B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$106.00
+31.2% vs current
KNF
Knife RiverDNYSE / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-06-15
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
+21.3% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$76.00
-6.0% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+21.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+21.0
Positive
Pulse
+18.9
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+65.8
Score
AI commentary
Primary evidence quality is strong because the Q1 2026 earnings release was confirmed through the 2026-05-05 8-K and 10-Q. The post-print setup is still tentative: the packet does not provide a robust analyst revision set, social context is unavailable, and the peer group is mainly same-sector market-cap matching rather than direct operating comparators. That combination argues for cautious monitoring of backlog conversion, leverage and acquisition integration rather than a standard-conviction thesis change.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-05eventQ1 print showed volume-led improvement and preserved 2026 guideMedium impact
On 2026-05-05, Knife River reported Q1 revenue up 16% to $410.1 million, adjusted EBITDA improved 16% to a loss of $31.8 million, margin improved 290 bps, and backlog reached a record $1.2 billion while full-year guidance was maintained at $3.3-$3.5 billion revenue and $520-$560 million adjusted EBITDA [#8-K-2026-05-05].
2026-10-31catalystConstruction-season conversion of backlog is the next proof pointMedium impact
Management framed Q1 as the seasonally lightest period and said profitable growth this year depends on strong underlying demand, recent acquisitions, price optimization and cost controls converting the $1.2 billion backlog through the heavier construction quarters [#8-K-2026-05-05].
2027-06-30catalystMountain expansion and organic projects can extend aggregates-led growthMedium impact
The Q1 filing says three Mountain-region acquisitions were completed in the quarter, including Morgan Asphalt in Utah with reserves projected to last over 30 years; management also highlighted a Sioux Falls aggregates expansion targeted to be operational in 2027 and a Twin Falls ready-mix startup expected to be fully operational in Q2 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology