B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KNF
Knife RiverCNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-14
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+20.2
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+20.2
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+26.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+52.5
Score
AI commentary
Coverage has shifted toward Starboard's intervention, but the company's response commits only to engagement. A secondary report put the September 24 share-price gain at 3.8%; the packet does not establish whether that reaction held. No dependable analyst-revision, options, short-interest or social-sentiment series was supplied, and zeroes in the sentiment fields denote unavailable data rather than neutral readings. Company statement Reported market reaction
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-14
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-31eventSecond-half backlog conversion and margin testHigh impact
Q2 revenue rose 13%, but adjusted EBITDA fell 1%. Knife River reported $1.2 billion of backlog and guided to $3.4–$3.6 billion of 2026 revenue and $520–$560 million of adjusted EBITDA. Its September presentation warned that fewer bids, project delays and fuel costs persisted into the busiest season; it expected second-half contracting margins of approximately 9–10%. Delivery against the existing guidance is the key near-term test. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] Q2 earnings exhibit [#8-K-2026-09-23] September presentation
2027-03-31catalystShareholder-engagement outcomeHigh impact
Knife River acknowledged Starboard's letter and said it would engage with the investor while continuing to review opportunities to create value. The company did not announce a sale process or transaction; any strategic change remains uncertain. [#PR-2026-09-24] Company statement
2027-12-31catalystOrganic capacity projectsHigh impact
Management expects its Midwest rail-served aggregates expansion and Spokane prestress capacity addition to be completed in 2027; the latter has secured a semiconductor project. Completion, utilization and returns—not the announced plans alone—would support a stronger growth case. [#8-K-2026-09-23] September presentation
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-14 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology