B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$106.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KNF
Knife RiverANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest post-earnings bull read is operational: double-digit volume gains, 290 bps adjusted EBITDA margin improvement, record backlog and an unchanged full-year outlook suggest Q1 improved confidence ahead of the core construction season. The packet's median target of $102.18 implies moderate upside from the $88.73 anchor, but the target set lacks a confirmed analyst count.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Acquisition execution risk remains elevated after three Q1 deals plus ongoing organic projects, with additional integration and capital demands into 2026-2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
7
Value
55
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $98.00 · Bull $106.00 · Bear $76.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $87.29
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d +2.6
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition execution risk remains elevated after three Q1 deals plus ongoing organic projects, with additional integration and capital demands into 2026-2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • Balance-sheet usage increased: as of 2026-03-31 the company had $1.4 billion of gross debt, $178.2 million of revolver availability and net leverage of 2.9x [#8-K-2026-05-05].
- • The main post-print caution is that GAAP profitability still worsened, with net loss widening to $79.2 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Q1 print showed volume-led improvement and preserved 2026 guide
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+5.8
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 6.7 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 84.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$76.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.78B
Beta
-
Shares Out
56.76M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
1.37
P/FCF (TTM)
27.95
Rev YoY
+12.6%
EPS YoY
-13.2%
Gross Margin
+17.8%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$1.09B
Current Ratio
2.66
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data