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KNF

Knife RiverC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Backlog conversion, aggregates pricing and the planned 2027 capacity additions could lift earnings if operational improvements overcome current contracting and fuel headwinds. Shareholder engagement adds optionality, not a confirmed sale thesis.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.
What can break
Fewer public bid lettings, a lower-margin paving mix and delayed work could prevent expected backlog conversion or margin recovery. [#8-K-2026-09-23] September presentation
Momentum
15
Value
56
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $50.00 · Bull $65.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $75.67
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +5.5
Value56 · Δ7d -1.1
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -4.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fewer public bid lettings, a lower-margin paving mix and delayed work could prevent expected backlog conversion or margin recovery. [#8-K-2026-09-23] September presentation
  • • Higher diesel costs and delays in recovering fuel escalation payments remain earnings risks. [#8-K-2026-09-23] September presentation
  • • Q2's flat adjusted EBITDA despite double-digit revenue growth and the September warning that headwinds continued leave the 2026 margin outcome exposed.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Second-half backlog conversion and margin test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.5
Δ21d
+8.7
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-49.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 14.7 / Value 56.4 / Sentiment 54.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.02B
Beta
-
Shares Out
56.76M
P/E (TTM)
28.4
P/S (TTM)
1.37
P/FCF (TTM)
27.95
Rev YoY
+12.6%
EPS YoY
-13.2%
Gross Margin
+17.8%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$1.09B
Current Ratio
2.66
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data