B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
+17.6% vs current
JACK
Jack in the BoxDNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
-9.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
-41.2% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.3
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+36.2
Score
AI commentary
This was a T+3 post-earnings follow-up, and the evidence remains cautious rather than thesis-changing bullish. Primary company materials dominate the read: the May 13, 2026 earnings release and 10-Q showed softer sales, lower margins, updated but still weak full-year expectations, and a same-day CEO transition. Trusted secondary coverage suggested a small EPS beat but a revenue miss versus consensus, plus mixed analyst reaction with at least one material target cut and one smaller target raise from a low base. With shares anchored at $10.87 on 2026-05-15, the market still appears to be treating the story as distressed turnaround monitoring, not confirmed recovery.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-13eventQ2 print and CEO change reset the near-term thesisHigh impact
The May 13, 2026 earnings release showed Q2 same-store sales down 3.8%, revenue down 4.3% to $254.3 million, and operating EPS of $0.76, while management said results did not meet expectations but trends improved into Q3. The same 8-K also disclosed Lance Tucker's departure and Mark King's appointment as interim CEO, making the next few months an execution-and-credibility reset rather than a clean recovery call [#8-K-2026-05-13] [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
2026-08-01catalystTraffic stabilization versus closure and margin pressure is the next operating checkpointHigh impact
Primary filings show Q2 transaction weakness remained the main issue, with company-operated transactions down 4.3%, commodity inflation at 5.0%, restaurant-level margin down to 16.4%, and fiscal 2026 still calling for low-single-digit same-store sales decline plus 50 to 100 closures, most in the franchise base. Management's claim that trends improved into Q3 now needs proof against still-negative traffic and closure acceleration in the back half [#8-K-2026-05-13] [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
2026-08-31catalystDebt paydown and refinancing execution remain core to equity durabilityHigh impact
After already prepaying $105.0 million in January, the company said it is withdrawing about $71.0 million of excess COLI funding and expects to use that plus cash on hand to prepay about $99.0 million of 2019-1 Class A-2-II notes in Q3 FY2026, while also actively pursuing refinancing of the August 2026 and February 2027 note tranches. If that balance-sheet work lands cleanly, survivability and valuation pressure can improve; if it slips, leverage stays a major overhang [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology