B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JACK
Jack in the BoxDNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.3
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+33.5
Score
AI commentary
This was a T+3 post-earnings follow-up, and the evidence remains cautious rather than thesis-changing bullish. Primary company materials dominate the read: the May 13, 2026 earnings release and 10-Q showed softer sales, lower margins, updated but still weak full-year expectations, and a same-day CEO transition. Trusted secondary coverage suggested a small EPS beat but a revenue miss versus consensus, plus mixed analyst reaction with at least one material target cut and one smaller target raise from a low base. With shares anchored at $10.87 on 2026-05-15, the market still appears to be treating the story as distressed turnaround monitoring, not confirmed recovery.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-13eventQ2 print and CEO change reset the near-term thesisHigh impact
The May 13, 2026 earnings release showed Q2 same-store sales down 3.8%, revenue down 4.3% to $254.3 million, and operating EPS of $0.76, while management said results did not meet expectations but trends improved into Q3. The same 8-K also disclosed Lance Tucker's departure and Mark King's appointment as interim CEO, making the next few months an execution-and-credibility reset rather than a clean recovery call [#8-K-2026-05-13] [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
2026-08-01catalystTraffic stabilization versus closure and margin pressure is the next operating checkpointHigh impact
Primary filings show Q2 transaction weakness remained the main issue, with company-operated transactions down 4.3%, commodity inflation at 5.0%, restaurant-level margin down to 16.4%, and fiscal 2026 still calling for low-single-digit same-store sales decline plus 50 to 100 closures, most in the franchise base. Management's claim that trends improved into Q3 now needs proof against still-negative traffic and closure acceleration in the back half [#8-K-2026-05-13] [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
2026-08-31catalystDebt paydown and refinancing execution remain core to equity durabilityHigh impact
After already prepaying $105.0 million in January, the company said it is withdrawing about $71.0 million of excess COLI funding and expects to use that plus cash on hand to prepay about $99.0 million of 2019-1 Class A-2-II notes in Q3 FY2026, while also actively pursuing refinancing of the August 2026 and February 2027 note tranches. If that balance-sheet work lands cleanly, survivability and valuation pressure can improve; if it slips, leverage stays a major overhang [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology