B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JACK
Jack in the BoxDNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive read is that Q2 showed a modest operating EPS beat versus secondary-source consensus, management said trends improved into Q3, and the new interim CEO is explicitly pushing same-store sales, margins, and debt reduction. Post-print reaction from coverage was not uniformly negative: StockAnalysis surfaced a Stifel Hold note with a target increase to $15 from $10.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.7.
What can break
Balance-sheet risk is still material because the company is managing note prepayments and refinancing against restrictive securitized debt terms flagged in the 10-K [#10-K-2025-11-19].
Momentum
47
Value
57
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.00
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -31.6
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment33 · Δ7d +6.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Balance-sheet risk is still material because the company is managing note prepayments and refinancing against restrictive securitized debt terms flagged in the 10-K [#10-K-2025-11-19].
- • CEO and customer leadership departures create execution risk during a period when the company is also using retention awards to stabilize key executives [#8-K-2026-05-13].
- • The bearish read is stronger on primary evidence: sales, transactions, and margins are still falling, guidance still implies a sales decline for FY2026, and closures are set to accelerate.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-13
Q2 print and CEO change reset the near-term thesis
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-31.6
Δ21d
-41.0
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-6.2
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.7
Δ21d
+11.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 47.2 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 33.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$327.97M
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
19.18M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
3.9
P/S (TTM)
0.24
P/FCF (TTM)
7.37
Rev YoY
-1.8%
EPS YoY
-10.1%
Gross Margin
+25.0%
Op Margin
+15.1%
Net Debt
$3.04B
Current Ratio
0.58
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data