B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
+48.3% vs current
HNRG
Hallador EnergyANasdaq / Utilities
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
+13.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
-25.8% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-13.7
Negative
Company
+35.0
Positive
Macro
-13.8
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+61.6
Score
AI commentary
Primary sources point to a constructive long-duration contracting backdrop, but the near-term setup is still dominated by Merom execution and maintenance noise. Coverage around the May 6 release exists, yet the packet does not provide a dependable post-print price-reaction series or a fresh analyst revision wave, so confidence stays moderate and this remains a monitoring-style report.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-15catalystQ1 print keeps the stock in execution-vs-contracting modeHigh impact
The May 6 10-Q / earnings update showed $101.8M of revenue, $20.5M of operating cash flow, a $9.3M net loss, and $5.5M of adjusted EBITDA, while also confirming the new long-dated capacity agreement. The near-term debate is whether investors focus more on the soft quarter or on the improved revenue visibility [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
2026-06-30eventMerom maintenance can keep June-quarter operating results noisyMedium impact
The 10-Q says lower plant availability at Merom hurt Q1 generation, and the unit was scheduled to undergo a major maintenance outage beginning in May. That creates a clear event risk for near-term output, margin, and cash-flow expectations if the outage takes longer than expected to normalize [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
2027-03-31catalyst12-year capacity agreement is the main rerating pathHigh impact
Hallador's May 6 filing/release package points to a 12-year capacity agreement expected to generate more than $1B of contracted revenue beginning in late 2028 and running through mid-2040. If execution and financing stay orderly, that visibility is the clearest long-duration rerating driver [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology