B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HNRG
Hallador EnergyCNasdaq / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-13
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-29.7
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-29.7
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-45.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+77.4
Score
AI commentary
The post-earnings tone is mixed: Q2 operating results were materially weaker year over year, while Turtle Creek cost, timing, and contracted-revenue updates were constructive. The packet does not provide an isolatable post-release price reaction, analyst revisions, options data, short interest, or sufficient social coverage; confidence remains moderate and the thesis is best treated as monitoring rather than a high-conviction breakout.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-13
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-31catalystQ2 earnings reset leaves near-term execution overhangMedium impact
Q2 revenue fell to $101.5 million from $102.8 million year over year, net loss was $15.2 million versus prior-year net income of $8.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $2.9 million versus positive $3.4 million. Management attributed weakness to the planned Merom outage, reliability work, and costly purchased power; consensus surprise data is unavailable [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
2026-09-30eventTurtle Creek interconnection and final-investment-decision milestonesHigh impact
Hallador expects mid-August MISO ERAS results and is targeting a generator interconnection agreement and final investment decision in September. The project budget is now expected below $800 million, with targeted commercial operation in the second half of 2028 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
2027-12-31catalystContracted capacity revenue supports a potential reratingHigh impact
Management reported $2.4 billion of contracted revenue at the segment level through 2040 and is pursuing additional forward sales. This improves long-term visibility, but realization depends on project execution, financing, regulatory processes, and plant reliability [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-13 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology