HNRG

Hallador EnergyD

Nasdaq / Utilities

At close

2026-07-21

Current thesis

The constructive case is that Hallador has moved from a purely cyclical power/coal narrative toward a more contracted cash-flow story: management disclosed roughly $1.1 billion of capacity-only sales across multi-year agreements, said pricing was more than 2x historical capacity pricing, and highlighted durable balance-sheet support and high cash conversion potential [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]. The June 2026 DOE negotiation selection further supports the Merom modernization narrative even if it is not yet a financial needle-mover [#8-K-2026-06-05].

Posture

Defensive

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

What can break

Merom plant availability constraints and outage execution could keep quarterly output, margins, and investor confidence volatile even if management expects improvement later in the year [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $19.50 · Bull $26.50 · Bear $12.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-21

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-21 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-21

Supporting evidence

What

Grade D · Defensive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $29.25

Why

Momentum19 · Δ7d -1.0

Value60 · Δ7d +0.3

Sentiment54 · Δ7d +2.3

So what

Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

-1.0

Δ21d

-16.5

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.3

Δ21d

+0.5

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+2.3

Δ21d

+3.8

Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 18.5 / Value 59.7 / Sentiment 54.5

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-20

Market Cap

$743.25M

Beta

0.23

Shares Out

47.13M

P/E (TTM) · Derived

16.2

P/S (TTM)

1.84

P/FCF (TTM)

15.76

Rev YoY

-13.7%

EPS YoY

-187.3%

Gross Margin

+12.4%

Op Margin

-35.9%

Net Debt

$23.7M

Current Ratio

0.80

As of 2026-07-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology