B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
-5.0% vs current
GTX
Garrett MotionBNasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
-24.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
-39.8% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-03
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.6
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+24.4
Score
AI commentary
Near-term tone improved after earnings, with third-party price-history data showing GTX closed at $25.61 on April 30, 2026 versus $20.49 on April 29, 2026, then at $25.87 on May 1, 2026, indicating the initial post-print rally largely held into the next session. Headline buzz is high because the move coincided with a raised outlook and capital return commentary. Still, analyst revision evidence remains thin rather than broad-based, so this looks more like a positive monitoring setup than a high-conviction fresh re-rating call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-20eventMay 20, 2026 Technology and Investor DayMedium impact
Garrett said its May 20, 2026 Technology and Investor Day will outline progress across Turbo, Zero-Emission Vehicle, and Industrial portfolios together with long-term growth and financial priorities [#IR-2026-03-25]. A credible framework or sharper long-term targets could help validate the post-earnings re-rating.
2026-05-20catalystPost-earnings follow-through after Q1 beat and higher 2026 outlookMedium impact
Garrett’s April 30, 2026 earnings release showed Q1 net sales of $985 million, adjusted EBIT of $151 million, adjusted free cash flow of $49 million, and a raised 2026 outlook for sales, net income, adjusted EBIT, and free cash flow [#8-K-2026-04-30]. The setup is supportive, but the stock’s sharp same-day move means much of the beat is already being digested.
2026-11-30catalystIndustrial HVAC compressor commercialization broadens non-turbo narrativeHigh impact
Garrett’s February 2, 2026 company release introduced oil-free centrifugal HVAC compressors, said trials with leading integrators had shown more than 10% energy savings, and stated samples were available with start of production scheduled for late 2026 [#IR-2026-02-02]. If management converts these programs into visible revenue milestones, the diversification story could become more credible over the next several quarters.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology