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GTX

Garrett MotionA
Nasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales rose 5% at constant currency, adjusted EBIT margin reached 15.6%, and Garrett raised the lower ends of its 2026 sales, adjusted EBIT and adjusted free-cash-flow ranges. Sustained execution and conversion of industrial awards could support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Debt principal was $1.386 billion at June 30, creating a trade-off between repurchases and balance-sheet reduction. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
53
Value
62
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $34.83
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -34.2
Value62 · Δ7d +2.3
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +13.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt principal was $1.386 billion at June 30, creating a trade-off between repurchases and balance-sheet reduction. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • Garrett's July outlook assumed a 2%–4% decline in 2026 light-vehicle industry production; a deeper decline could pressure sales. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • The Q3 print could expose weaker vehicle demand, cost pressure or slower award conversion.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

October 29 results test the raised outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-34.2
Δ21d
-35.1
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+3.7
Sentiment
77
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.0
Δ21d
+17.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 53.5 / Value 61.8 / Sentiment 76.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.02B
Beta
0.33
Shares Out
186.49M
P/E (TTM)
11.4
P/S (TTM)
0.99
P/FCF (TTM)
10.40
Rev YoY
+6.9%
EPS YoY
+25.0%
Gross Margin
+24.8%
Op Margin
+14.8%
Net Debt
$1.29B
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data