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GSHD

Goosehead InsuranceB
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed broad operating momentum: revenue +21%, written premium +14%, policies in force +15%, adjusted EBITDA +30%, and retention at 86%. The reported EPS and revenue beats, together with Citizens maintaining a Market Outperform rating and $100 target, support a positive post-print interpretation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.1.
What can break
A planned CEO transition and higher expected spending could limit the market's willingness to capitalize the earnings beat.
Momentum
86
Value
43
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $66.62 · Bull $78.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $68.29
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d -0.6
Value43 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +20.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A planned CEO transition and higher expected spending could limit the market's willingness to capitalize the earnings beat.
  • • Core revenue growth trails headline revenue growth and includes exposure to contingent commissions and other less-recurring items.
  • • Core revenue grew only 10% versus total revenue growth of 21%, and the earnings beat included contingent commissions.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-22

Q2 earnings beat and initial reaction

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-8.0
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.1
Δ21d
+28.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 86.5 / Value 43.1 / Sentiment 73.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$66.62
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.29B
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
23.8M
P/E (TTM)
63.9
P/S (TTM)
7.56
P/FCF (TTM)
49.07
Rev YoY
+20.6%
EPS YoY
+122.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.3%
Net Debt
$314.35M
Current Ratio
1.54
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data