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GSHD

Goosehead InsuranceD
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 21% year over year to $113.4 million, policies in force rose 15%, and adjusted EBITDA rose 30%. Goosehead also raised its 2026 outlook to 12%–19% organic revenue growth and 12%–20% written-premium growth.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -36.8.
What can break
At June 30, Goosehead reported $23.7 million of cash and $323.0 million of notes payable; cash conversion and leverage warrant monitoring. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22] Q2 company release
Momentum
5
Value
44
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $65.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $61.43
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d +2.8
Value44 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -36.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -36.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • At June 30, Goosehead reported $23.7 million of cash and $323.0 million of notes payable; cash conversion and leverage warrant monitoring. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22] Q2 company release
  • • Organic-growth acceleration may disappoint, and producer and technology investment may delay margin expansion. Q2 company release The Fly
  • • Before the actual Q3 release, Piper Sandler downgraded GSHD to Neutral and cut its target from $72 to $48, citing doubts about organic-growth acceleration and near-term margin expansion amid technology investment.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-09

Third-quarter results on November 9

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+0.4
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-36.8
Δ21d
-36.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 4.6 / Value 44.3 / Sentiment 58.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.72B
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
23.8M
P/E (TTM)
63.9
P/S (TTM)
7.56
P/FCF (TTM)
49.07
Rev YoY
+20.6%
EPS YoY
+122.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.3%
Net Debt
$314.35M
Current Ratio
1.54
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data