B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
+32.6% vs current
GEO
GEO GroupANYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
+11.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
-20.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+73.0
Positive
Company
+73.0
Positive
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+60.2
Score
AI commentary
Primary-company evidence is constructive because the May 6 release was a beat-and-raise and secondary market coverage reported a roughly 20% post-release jump. Even so, analyst revision and target-change evidence is thin, so this remains an execution-and-follow-through monitor rather than a confirmed rerating.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30catalystQ1 beat-and-raise puts Q2 execution on the critical pathMedium impact
The May 6 press release/8-K said GEO posted Q1 revenue of $705.2 million, net income attributable to GEO Operations of $38.3 million ($0.29 per diluted share), and Adjusted EBITDA of $131.4 million, then raised FY26 revenue guidance to $2.95 billion-$3.10 billion and FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $525 million-$545 million while guiding Q2 revenue to $715 million-$725 million and Q2 Adjusted EBITDA to $130 million-$135 million. Secondary market coverage described a roughly 20% post-release jump, so the near-term question is whether Q2 confirms the raised outlook [#8-K-2026-05-06].
2026-07-01eventJuly 1 Florida facility transitions can lift second-half run-rateHigh impact
Management highlighted the scheduled July 1, 2026 transition of the 1,884-bed Graceville Facility and the 985-bed Bay Facility to GEO management. Clean staffing, occupancy ramp, and margin execution would convert those contract wins into visible second-half revenue rather than only future opportunity [#8-K-2026-05-06].
2026-12-31catalystCash flow, leverage reduction, and buybacks can support a slower reratingHigh impact
GEO ended Q1 with about $80 million of cash, about $1.61 billion of debt, net debt of about $1.53 billion, and net leverage below 3.2x trailing Adjusted EBITDA, while repurchasing about $50 million of stock in the quarter. If operating momentum continues, that balance-sheet setup can support deleveraging plus ongoing capital returns over the rest of 2026 [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology