B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
+12.0% vs current
GEO
GEO GroupBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
-6.7% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
-35.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-06-06
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.8
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+39.3
Score
AI commentary
News flow is clearly positive around the May 6 beat-and-raise and the subsequent market reaction, but the packet does not provide usable social, options, short-interest, or employee-review data. That makes this a company-news-driven, execution-led setup rather than a crowd-confirmed rerating.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-06
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30catalystQ2 follow-through must validate the May 6 beat-and-raiseMedium impact
The official May 6 release showed Q1 revenue up 17% to $705.2 million, Adjusted EBITDA up 32% to $131.4 million, and FY26 revenue/EBITDA guidance raised; the near-term test is whether Q2 confirms the operating ramp and preserves the rerating [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
2026-07-01eventMid-2026 facility transitions and idle-bed ramp can extend the second-half run-rateHigh impact
Management highlighted roughly 6,000 available high-security idle beds and further scaling in electronic monitoring and secure transportation; successful facility transitions and utilization gains would convert contract wins into visible second-half revenue [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
2026-12-31catalystCapital returns and asset monetization support a slower rerateHigh impact
GEO repurchased about 3.6 million shares for $50 million in Q1, and management emphasized its owned-bed asset base and shareholder-value focus; if operating momentum continues, buybacks and disciplined capital allocation can support a higher floor into year-end [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-06-06 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology