GEO
GEO GroupBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-20
Current thesis
The bull case is that GEO is converting 2025 contract wins into 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth, while idle-bed activation, secure transportation, and buybacks keep amplifying the operating leverage visible in the May 6 beat-and-raise [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Momentum
What changed
Momentum remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.0.
What can break
Capital allocation and leverage remain important; buybacks help but could reduce flexibility if operating momentum weakens.
Momentum
92
Value
47
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $19.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-20
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-20 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-20
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-20
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.75
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d -5.0
Value47 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals
Momentum
92
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.0
Δ21d
-4.6
Value
47
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
35
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+1.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 91.7 / Value 47.2 / Sentiment 34.7
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$3.94B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
133.62M
P/E (TTM)
9.8
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
87.66
Rev YoY
+16.6%
EPS YoY
+106.1%
Gross Margin
+20.6%
Op Margin
+9.2%
Net Debt
$1.65B
Current Ratio
1.75
As of 2026-07-20 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology