GEO
GEO GroupCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-22
Current thesis
The bull case is that GEO is converting 2025 contract wins into 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth, while idle-bed activation, secure transportation, and buybacks keep amplifying the operating leverage visible in the May 6 beat-and-raise [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Momentum
What changed
Momentum remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.6.
What can break
Capital allocation and leverage remain important; buybacks help but could reduce flexibility if operating momentum weakens.
Momentum
91
Value
47
Sentiment
34
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $19.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-22
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-21 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-22 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-22
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-22
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.75
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d -3.6
Value47 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment34 · Δ7d -4.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals
Momentum
91
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
-4.0
Value
47
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
34
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.8
Δ21d
-6.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 91.1 / Value 46.5 / Sentiment 34.3
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-21
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-21
Market Cap
$4.17B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
133.62M
P/E (TTM)
9.8
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
87.66
Rev YoY
+16.6%
EPS YoY
+106.1%
Gross Margin
+20.6%
Op Margin
+9.2%
Net Debt
$1.65B
Current Ratio
1.75
As of 2026-07-22 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology