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Six Flags EntertainmentA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3
B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
+30.4% vs current
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
+13.5% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
-13.0% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+66.0
Positive
Company
+66.0
Positive
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+60.1
Score

AI commentary

Tone improved after earnings because the company-source release showed better revenue, attendance, per-capita spend and adjusted EBITDA-loss trends, and third-party market coverage on May 7, 2026 tied an approximately 15% intraday stock move to results topping expectations. Analyst evidence is mixed rather than broadly bullish: one reported JPMorgan target increase still carried an Underweight rating, and broader T+3 estimate-revision evidence was not clearly available. The setup is therefore cautiously improved, but still a monitoring view until summer attendance, pass retention, yield and leverage progress are confirmed.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact
standard
Confidence
-

AI events

2026-06-03eventLeadership transition can either clear an overhang or prolong execution questionsMedium impact

Six Flags disclosed that CFO Brian Witherow would step down effective May 8, 2026, with Chief Accounting Officer Dave Hoffman serving as interim finance lead, while new marketing and legal leaders are set to start by June 3, 2026. A clean transition could reduce uncertainty, but the timing creates execution and communication risk during the key selling season [#8-K-2026-05-07].

2026-08-06catalystQ1 operating beat and April pass data improved the peak-season setupHigh impact

Q1 revenue rose 12% to $225.6 million, attendance increased 4% to 2.9 million visits despite fewer operating days, per-capita spending increased 6% to $69.26, and adjusted EBITDA loss improved by $48 million year over year. The company also reported year-to-date attendance through May 3 up 4% on a same-park basis and an active pass base of about 5 million units, up 6%, making the next summer update the key test of whether the early pass and mix gains persist [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

2026-12-31catalystPortfolio rationalization and cost-out need to translate into balance-sheet improvementHigh impact

The company tied its 2026 improvement plan to pricing, product mix, pass growth and cost efficiency, while the seven-park sale reduced the portfolio and the 10-Q said the U.S. property sales closed on April 6 with the Canadian closing expected in May. Q1 operating costs and expenses fell $50.4 million, but leverage remains heavy, with net debt around $5.27 billion and leverage tests still above 5.50x, so the longer-term equity case still depends on sustained summer execution, synergy capture and debt reduction [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology