B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FOR
Forestar GroupDNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The official print showed positive revenue, pretax-income, and EPS growth, substantial contracted future revenue, strong liquidity, and maintained full-year guidance. These factors support a recovery case if lot deliveries and margins improve.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.
What can break
Affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment could pressure lot demand, pricing, and absorption. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Momentum
40
Value
50
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $22.50Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $34.00
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -4.2
Value50 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +8.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment could pressure lot demand, pricing, and absorption. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
- • Full-year guidance was maintained rather than raised, leaving limited evidence of accelerating forward growth.
- • The nine-month lot count declined 9% year over year, non-D.R.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-21
Q3 FY2026 results, consensus miss, and maintained guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-3.3
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
+9.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 39.6 / Value 50.1 / Sentiment 54.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.49B
Beta
1.43
Shares Out
51.02M
P/E (TTM)
7.6
P/S (TTM)
0.76
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
5.27
Rev YoY
+4.2%
EPS YoY
+8.5%
Gross Margin
+23.7%
Op Margin
+14.7%
Net Debt
$437.9M
Current Ratio
0.05
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data