B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FOR
Forestar GroupDNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-24
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-30.7
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-30.7
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-18.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+68.3
Score
AI commentary
Post-earnings tone is mixed: official results showed operating growth and maintained guidance, while secondary coverage emphasized the consensus miss. Investing.com reported a 1.06% premarket decline after the release; MarketBeat later listed a July 23 close of $27.88, up 1.73%, suggesting the initial weakness did not persist through that session. No verified post-print analyst target or estimate revision was found, so the deterministic negative prior still supports a monitoring stance. [Investing.com](https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/forestar-stock-edges-down-as-third-quarter-results-miss-estimates-93CH-2608667) [MarketBeat](https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-7-21-forestar-group-inc-stock/)
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-24
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-21eventQ3 FY2026 results, consensus miss, and maintained guidanceMedium impact
Forestar reported Q3 revenue of $407.0 million, net income of $35.9 million, and EPS of $0.70, versus secondary consensus estimates of $437.73 million revenue and $0.81 EPS. FY2026 lot-delivery guidance of 14,000-14,500 and revenue guidance of $1.6-$1.7 billion was maintained. Investing.com reported a 1.06% premarket decline after the release. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21] [Investing.com](https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/forestar-stock-edges-down-as-third-quarter-results-miss-estimates-93CH-2608667)
2026-08-07catalystPost-print estimate and volume pressureMedium impact
The reported EPS missed secondary consensus by $0.11 and revenue missed by $30.73 million. Nine-month lot deliveries declined 9% year over year, while lower non-D.R. Horton lot sales and unchanged rather than raised guidance leave near-term estimate risk unresolved. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21] [MarketBeat](https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-7-21-forestar-group-inc-stock/)
2027-07-24catalystContracted backlog, liquidity, and book-value supportHigh impact
The company reported 23,500 lots contracted for approximately $2.3 billion of future revenue, $1.1 billion of liquidity, 17.7% net debt to total capital, and book value per share of $36.40. Execution against contracted lots could support longer-term rerating, but timing remains market-dependent. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-24 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology