B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
+24.1% vs current
FOR
Forestar GroupCNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
At close
2026-07-22
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
+5.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
-19.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-22
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-30.8
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-30.8
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+49.8
Score
AI commentary
News tone is moderately positive following the reported fiscal Q3 earnings growth, but the packet does not provide a verified post-release price reaction, analyst revisions, options data, or sufficient social coverage. The evidence supports monitoring rather than a high-conviction directional call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-22
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-22catalystPositive fiscal Q3 earnings printMedium impact
Fiscal Q3 net income rose 9% to $35.9 million, EPS was $0.70, revenue increased 4% to $407.0 million, and pretax margin was 12%. Consensus comparison and post-release price reaction are unavailable. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
2026-10-21catalystNine-month lot-sales softnessMedium impact
Nine-month lot sales declined 9% year over year to 8,541, and sales to customers other than D.R. Horton also declined. This offsets the stronger quarterly earnings growth and raises near-term demand and mix risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
2026-10-31eventContracted-lot revenue visibilityHigh impact
Forestar reported 23,500 lots contracted for sale representing $2.3 billion of future revenue, alongside 91,700 owned or controlled lots. Conversion depends on housing demand and execution. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-21]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-22 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology