B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FMNB
Farmers National BancCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-15
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+25.4
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+25.4
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+53.8
Score
AI commentary
Deterministic signals remain positive, but thesis-change intensity is only moderate and the forward setup is still mainly a monitoring view. FMNB has strong primary-source context, yet most upside depends on executing the just-closed merger, keeping credit noise contained, and converting platform changes into visible earnings lift.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-15
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-29catalystCredit-cost spike needs to prove transitoryMedium impact
Fourth-quarter 2025 provision expense rose to $2.3 million and annualized net charge-offs reached 0.59% after specific problem-loan actions, even though non-performing loans fell to $26.2 million by year-end. A cleaner quarterly credit print would help support the post-merger earnings case; another surprise reserve build would likely weigh on shares. [#10-K-2026-03-05] [#IR-2026-01-28]
2026-07-15eventMiddlefield integration gets its first full-quarter scorecardHigh impact
Farmers completed the Middlefield merger on March 2, 2026, and said the deal lifts the company to over $7.4 billion in banking assets and 83 branches, but the same release also flags integration and combined-company performance risk. The first full-quarter read-through on deposit retention, expense control, and credit carryover is the main near-term swing factor. [#IR-2026-03-02] [#8-K-2026-03-17]
2026-08-31eventAugust 2026 core conversion could unlock targeted expense savingsMedium impact
Management said the core platform transition should be completed in August 2026 and should save about $2.0 million annually, or roughly $0.04 per diluted share, once finished. Delivery matters because consulting and conversion costs already pressured 2025 expenses. [#IR-2025-10-22]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology