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FMNB

Farmers National BancB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Second-quarter margin improvement and commercial fundings could support earnings if acquired deposits remain stable and conversion costs subside. This remains conditional, not a confirmed third-quarter result.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
What can break
Credit quality and merger execution remain material monitoring risks; the 2025 Form 10-K also warns that cybersecurity exposure is expected to remain high. [#10-K-2026-03-05]
Momentum
65
Value
62
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $17.50 · Bear $12.80Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d +3.9
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit quality and merger execution remain material monitoring risks; the 2025 Form 10-K also warns that cybersecurity exposure is expected to remain high. [#10-K-2026-03-05]
  • • Second-quarter deposits fell from March, partly from seasonal public funds and deliberate runoff of acquired non-core deposits; acquired-portfolio loan payoffs exceeded management's expectations. [#PR-2026-07-22] Company Q2 release
  • • Middlefield-related loan payoffs, deposit attrition, persistent conversion costs, or renewed credit deterioration could offset the stronger second-quarter margin.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28

Third-quarter results remain unverified

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
65
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+1.3
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-8.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 65.4 / Value 61.7 / Sentiment 50.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$12.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$927.22M
Beta
0.87
Shares Out
59.25M
P/E (TTM)
9.3
P/S (TTM)
2.75
P/FCF (TTM)
31.22
Rev YoY
+43.9%
EPS YoY
+5.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.6%
Net Debt
$355.47M
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data