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DUOL

DuolingoD
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-Q1 reset leaves the stock near the packet's median analyst target of about $105.4, while the company still posted 21% DAU growth, 21% paid-subscriber growth, 27% revenue growth, 28.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, and strong free cash flow. If Q2 proves to be only a comp-related dip and bookings reaccelerate later in 2026 as management expects, sentiment can recover from a low base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
2026 stock-based compensation is expected to be nearly 15% of revenue, limiting the quality of margin expansion even as adjusted EBITDA remains solid.
Momentum
85
Value
52
Sentiment
28
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $106.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-05-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $134.29
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d +3.1
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment28 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 stock-based compensation is expected to be nearly 15% of revenue, limiting the quality of margin expansion even as adjusted EBITDA remains solid.
  • • Management is prioritizing learning outcomes, free-user experience, and audience growth, which can pressure near-term conversion and delay proof that engagement gains translate into bookings.
  • • The central concern is that bookings growth slowed to 14% in Q1 and guidance points to only 5.8% growth in Q2, suggesting the strategy shift toward free-user experience and product breadth may delay monetization.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 bookings slowdown is the next proof point

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+31.7
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
28
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-13.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 85.4 / Value 51.6 / Sentiment 28.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$106.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.09B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
46.79M
P/E (TTM)
23.5
P/S (TTM)
8.88
P/FCF (TTM)
24.62
Rev YoY
+18.3%
EPS YoY
-27.5%
Gross Margin
+72.2%
Op Margin
+14.2%
Net Debt
-$1.04B
Current Ratio
2.72
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data