B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DUOL
DuolingoFNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-Q1 reset leaves the stock near the packet's median analyst target of about $105.4, while the company still posted 21% DAU growth, 21% paid-subscriber growth, 27% revenue growth, 28.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, and strong free cash flow. If Q2 proves to be only a comp-related dip and bookings reaccelerate later in 2026 as management expects, sentiment can recover from a low base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
2026 stock-based compensation is expected to be nearly 15% of revenue, limiting the quality of margin expansion even as adjusted EBITDA remains solid.
Momentum
75
Value
49
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $106.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-05-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $135.40
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d -8.9
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment26 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 stock-based compensation is expected to be nearly 15% of revenue, limiting the quality of margin expansion even as adjusted EBITDA remains solid.
- • Management is prioritizing learning outcomes, free-user experience, and audience growth, which can pressure near-term conversion and delay proof that engagement gains translate into bookings.
- • The central concern is that bookings growth slowed to 14% in Q1 and guidance points to only 5.8% growth in Q2, suggesting the strategy shift toward free-user experience and product breadth may delay monetization.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 bookings slowdown is the next proof point
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.9
Δ21d
-15.7
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-3.7
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 75.1 / Value 49.5 / Sentiment 25.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$106.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.69B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
46.79M
P/E (TTM)
23.5
P/S (TTM)
8.88
P/FCF (TTM)
24.62
Rev YoY
+18.3%
EPS YoY
-27.5%
Gross Margin
+72.2%
Op Margin
+14.2%
Net Debt
-$1.04B
Current Ratio
2.72
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data