B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DUOL
DuolingoDNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-Q1 reset leaves the stock near the packet's median analyst target of about $105.4, while the company still posted 21% DAU growth, 21% paid-subscriber growth, 27% revenue growth, 28.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, and strong free cash flow. If Q2 proves to be only a comp-related dip and bookings reaccelerate later in 2026 as management expects, sentiment can recover from a low base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
2026 stock-based compensation is expected to be nearly 15% of revenue, limiting the quality of margin expansion even as adjusted EBITDA remains solid.
Momentum
86
Value
52
Sentiment
32
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $106.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-05-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $134.29
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d -0.1
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment32 · Δ7d +10.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 stock-based compensation is expected to be nearly 15% of revenue, limiting the quality of margin expansion even as adjusted EBITDA remains solid.
- • Management is prioritizing learning outcomes, free-user experience, and audience growth, which can pressure near-term conversion and delay proof that engagement gains translate into bookings.
- • The central concern is that bookings growth slowed to 14% in Q1 and guidance points to only 5.8% growth in Q2, suggesting the strategy shift toward free-user experience and product breadth may delay monetization.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 bookings slowdown is the next proof point
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+26.1
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
32
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.4
Δ21d
-2.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 85.8 / Value 51.6 / Sentiment 31.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$106.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.09B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
46.79M
P/E (TTM)
23.5
P/S (TTM)
8.88
P/FCF (TTM)
24.62
Rev YoY
+18.3%
EPS YoY
-27.5%
Gross Margin
+72.2%
Op Margin
+14.2%
Net Debt
-$1.04B
Current Ratio
2.72
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data