B+
Bull case
23%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
-18.1% vs current
COCO
Vita CocoCNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
47%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
-28.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
-44.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-15
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-
Unavailable
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+17.1
Score
AI commentary
This should remain a tentative monitoring memo, not a standard-conviction call. Primary-source evidence is solid, but recent news flow is sparse, peer fit is loose, and the deterministic prior is negative across 5d/20d/60d/120d horizons with only mid-level evidence quality (0.54) and catalyst density (0.50), while forward proof for the 2026 bridge is still limited.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-15
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-03catalystBoard retirement looks contained rather than thesis-changingMedium impact
John Leahy said he will not stand for reelection at the June 3, 2026 annual meeting, and the company said the decision was for personal reasons with no disagreement on operations, policies, or practices, which suggests limited near-term operating impact despite a minor governance overhang [#8-K-2026-04-10].
2026-12-31catalyst2026 guide is the main rerating lever, but execution still has to be provenHigh impact
The February 18, 2026 earnings release guided to 2026 net sales of $680-$700 million, gross margin of about 38%, and adjusted EBITDA of $122-$128 million after 2025 net sales rose to $610 million and adjusted EBITDA to $98 million; with no 2026 reported quarter yet in the packet, this remains a monitoring setup that needs multiple quarterly checkpoints to confirm the tariff, pricing, and private-label bridge [#PR-2026-02-18].
2026-12-31catalystSupply-chain durability is real, but concentration risk caps convictionHigh impact
Vita Coco extended its Century Pacific manufacturing agreement to December 31, 2030 and described a six-country factory network, which supports capacity and sourcing flexibility, but the 10-K still shows coconut water at 96% of revenue, Customer A and Customer B at 19% and 25% of 2025 sales, and Suppliers A/B/C at 18%, 13%, and 10% of purchases, keeping execution risk elevated [#8-K-2025-06-12] [#10-K-2026-02-18].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology