B+
Bull case
23%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COCO
Vita CocoCNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
COCO has real operating quality: 2025 sales grew 18% to $610 million, adjusted EBITDA rose to $98 million, cash reached about $197 million, debt was zero, and management is guiding to another year of double-digit growth with better margins if tariffs ease and private label recovers [#PR-2026-02-18].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Customer concentration remains high, with two customers representing 44% of 2025 sales [#10-K-2026-02-18].
Momentum
13
Value
48
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $53.00 · Bull $61.00 · Bear $41.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $83.22
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -3.7
Value48 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +15.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +15.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration remains high, with two customers representing 44% of 2025 sales [#10-K-2026-02-18].
- • Private-label recovery from new and regained business disappoints versus guidance.
- • Conviction is capped by concentration and forward-proof issues: coconut water is still 96% of revenue, two customers represented 44% of 2025 sales, three suppliers represented 41% of purchases, and management's 2026 bridge depends on lower tariffs, pricing discipline, and private-label wins that are not yet demonstrated in 2026 reported results [#10-K-2026-02-18].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-03
Board retirement looks contained rather than thesis-changing
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
-5.3
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+3.4
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.6
Δ21d
+29.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 12.7 / Value 48.4 / Sentiment 62.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
47%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.76B
Beta
0.37
Shares Out
57.4M
P/E (TTM)
46.3
P/S (TTM)
5.00
P/FCF (TTM)
57.59
Rev YoY
+28.1%
EPS YoY
+112.3%
Gross Margin
+40.9%
Op Margin
+19.1%
Net Debt
-$183.34M
Current Ratio
3.36
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data