CLBT

Cellebrite DID

Nasdaq / Software & Services

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$18.50

+23.5% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$15.50

+3.5% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$10.50

-29.9% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-17

AI commentary

The immediate earnings reaction was positive but not decisive: CLBT closed at $13.12 on May 14, 2026, up 8.43% from $12.10 on May 13, then eased to $12.98 on May 15, down 1.07% day over day but still above the pre-print close. News tone around the release was beat-positive, yet delayed analyst revision evidence is limited and includes at least one reported target cut, so this still reads as a cautious monitoring setup rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-17

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-14eventQ1 beat with maintained FY26 outlook and explicit Q2 ARR accelerationHigh impact

Cellebrite reported Q1 2026 revenue of $128.3M (+19% YoY), subscription revenue of $117.9M (+23%), ARR of $493.0M (+21%), 115% net retention, and guided Q2 ARR to $510M-$513M and FY26 ARR to $567M-$573M, while management said Q2 should show ARR acceleration [#PR-2026-05-14].

2026-05-18catalystPost-earnings investor conference stretch can clarify whether the beat is durableMedium impact

Cellebrite has investor events scheduled for May 18, 2026, May 27, 2026, and May 28, 2026, giving management near-term opportunities to reinforce the Q1 print, FedRAMP progress, and product-cycle narrative [#IR-2026-05-17].

2026-12-31catalystFedRAMP High plus new AI and investigation products broaden the federal and platform storyHigh impact

The May 6 FedRAMP High authorization makes Cellebrite Government Cloud reusable across federal agencies, while the Q1 release highlighted Guardian Investigate general availability, Genesis early access, Spring 2026 device-access upgrades, and the SCG drone-forensics acquisition as additional expansion vectors [#IR-2026-05-06] [#PR-2026-05-14].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology