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CLBT

Cellebrite DIC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue of $131.1 million was within the prior company target and adjusted EBITDA of $31.8 million exceeded the prior $29–31 million target. NRR improved to 117%, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $144.2 million, and early Genesis monetization plus the FedRAMP win support a possible longer-term reacceleration.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
What can break
Immediate CEO succession creates transition and execution risk. [#IR-2026-08-13]
Momentum
4
Value
57
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $16.50 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.36
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d +0.9
Value57 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Immediate CEO succession creates transition and execution risk. [#IR-2026-08-13]
  • • Longer sales cycles and weaker Inseyets expansion drove the ARR miss and FY26 guidance reset. [#IR-2026-08-13]
  • • ARR missed the prior target, FY26 ARR and revenue guidance were lowered, and management cited longer sales cycles and less Inseyets expansion.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-13

Immediate CEO succession

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
4
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-2.4
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
-0.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 3.7 / Value 56.7 / Sentiment 59.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.6B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
249.44M
P/E (TTM)
58.0
P/S (TTM)
9.68
P/FCF (TTM)
31.74
Rev YoY
+15.8%
EPS YoY
-67.8%
Gross Margin
+83.0%
Op Margin
+11.4%
Net Debt
-$414.38M
Current Ratio
1.60
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data