CCK

Good morning, welcome to Crown Holdings Q1 2026 conference call. Your lines have been placed on a listen-only mode until the question and answer session. Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kevin C. Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

Thank you, Elle. Good morning. With me on today's call is Timothy J. Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you don't already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com. On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K for 2025 and subsequent filings. Earnings for the quarter were $1.56 per share, compared to $1.65 per share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.86, up 11% compared to $1.67 in the prior year quarter.

Net sales for the quarter were up 13% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting a 5% increase in global beverage can volumes, $234 million from the pass-through of higher raw material cost, and $74 million from favorable foreign exchange. Segment income was $405 million in the quarter, compared to $398 million in the prior year, reflecting higher beverage can shipments in Europe and Asia Pacific, partially offset by lower volumes in Brazil and lower cost recovery in Americas Beverage.

Q2 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share are projected to be in the range of $2.10-$2.20 per share. Full year is projected to be $7.90-$8.30 per share, with a $0.05 headwind in the Q2 and a $0.10 headwind for the full year due to the conflict in the Middle East. The adjusted earnings guidance for the full year includes net interest expense of approximately $355 million, exchange rates at current level with the euro at 1.17 to the dollar, full year tax rate of approximately 25%, depreciation of approximately $330 million, non-controlling interest expense approximately $145 million. Dividends to non-controlling interest are expected to be $110 million.

Share repurchases are expected to be approximately $600 million. We maintain our 2026 full year free cash flow guidance of approximately $900 million after $550 million of capital spending to support our growth projects in Brazil, Greece, Spain, and India. The company's net leverage was 2.7 times at the end of the Q1, reflecting seasonal working capital build. The company expects year-end net leverage to be approximately 2.5 times, in line with our long-term target. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone. As Kevin just discussed and is reflected in last night's earnings release, the company had a firm start to the year with earnings per share up 11% over 2025. Global beverage unit volumes were up 5% in the quarter on the back of strong demand across Europe and Asia Pacific. When coupled with 3% North American food can volume growth, that offset volume declines in Brazil and higher input costs in North America. The conflict in the Middle East continues to create volatility across energy, transportation, and direct materials such as aluminum and coatings. The biggest direct impact to Crown has been in the Middle East, where religious tourism has been significantly reduced and some customers have not been able to export.

Although Crown's March month shipments in the Middle East were up 19% over the prior year as our operations in Saudi and Jordan supported the UAE. All Crown plants remain operational with adequate supplies of materials, although for safety purposes, we have curtailed operations in Dubai from time to time over the last two months. As Kevin just discussed, we've included a full year $0.10 per share headwind with $0.05 a share in the Q2 and $0.05 a share in the second half to account for increased costs related to ocean freight, energy, and direct materials. We are also mindful of building inflationary pressure on consumers, although can demand remains strong globally owing to its many favorable characteristics. Turning to the operating segments, in Americas Beverage, sales increased by 16% in the quarter, primarily reflecting the pass-through of higher material costs.

Unit volumes in the Americas were up 1% to the prior year 1st quarter, with North America up 1% and Brazil down 5%. Income was down about 10% in the quarter in line with expectations owing to volume mix effects, Q1 cost timing, and higher cost inputs not recovered through our contractual pricing formula. We do expect the delta to prior year to narrow significantly in the Q2. The aluminum beverage can market in North America is steadily growing across multiple categories due to new product launches and convenient packaging. We expect strengthening demand into what should be a very tight can supply situation this summer, with our current full-year growth estimate unchanged at 2%-3%.

In Brazil, we forecast Q2 volume to be down, with the full year showing modest volume growth. European beverage volumes advanced 7% in the quarter, with growth noted throughout Northwest and Southern Europe and the Gulf States, leading to a 28% increase in segment income. Capacity remains tight across Europe, again, leading to what should be a very tight can market this summer. As previously discussed, we have two expansion projects underway in both Greece and Spain to support future growth. Income in Asia Pacific advanced 10% in the quarter on the back of 17% unit volume gains. Growth was notable across Vietnam, Cambodia and China as results from our commercial adjustment strategy, combined with recent cost reduction programs, begin to bear fruit.

Volumes across Transit Packaging held up well during the Q1, with equipment, plastic strap, and film offsetting most of declines in steel strap and protective. Margins were down compared to the prior year as input cost inflation ran ahead of our price recovery. We do expect to begin to recover cost inflation in the second half of the year. Q1 volumes in North American food cans advanced 3%, and when combined with better results in food closures and beverage can equipment, income and other increased $18 million in the quarter. Just to recap before opening the call to questions. Global beverage volumes advanced 5% in the quarter, and demand looks to remain strong for the balance of the year despite inflationary pressures on consumers in what should be very tight market conditions across both North America and Europe.

Food can volumes up 3% following 5% growth in the prior year Q1. Earnings per share up 11% to $1.86. We returned in excess of $250 million to shareholders in the Q1, and in the last 5 quarters have repurchased approximately 6% of outstanding company common stock. The balance sheet remains strong. Cash flow is significant, which will allow for the continued return of value to shareholders. With that, Elle, I think we are now ready to take questions, please.

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question will be coming from George Staphos of Bank of America. Sir, your line is open.

Thank you. Hi, Tim. Hi, Tom.

Hey, George.

Hi, Kevin. I just want to give you a quick question first, and congrats on the progress so far. Did the supply chain issues as they were building give you any volume opportunities? You pointed to in the release that you're able to leverage your network globally. All your peers have global networks too, but did any of that make for maybe some extra volume that you maybe weren't considering to start the year if some of your peers were having issues elsewhere? You know, the volumes have been very strong.

You talk about it being tight into the summer, and that's terrific. Having said that, you're coming off, you know, tough comps already. We had very strong growth in the Q4. Are there any factors out there that would suggest maybe there's a little bit of pre-buying going on, in terms of this volume demand? I had a follow on.

Okay. Let me the first question, George, I think, I think we feel pretty confident that the answer to your first question is not yet. That is, if there is going to be a tight raw material supply situation vis-a-vis the aluminum supplier fire that is causing some aluminum disruption to some of our peers, if there is a benefit to that, we have not seen that as of yet. I think, what I would characterize is that this was always going to be, I believe, a tight summer situation, this in both North America and Europe, notwithstanding the North American aluminum outage. We're all global. Well, you know, careful how I say this, I don't mean this in the way it's gonna sound.

We're the only ones that are really global, George, in that we have a fairly large Asian footprint that we can supply and support other regions from when need be. We will see that into the second and Q3, depending on the length of the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockage, where some suppliers cannot ship to India. We will pick up some cans into India from our operations in Southeast Asia. That, that will occur potentially in Q2 and possibly even into Q3. That would be one area.

No, I think when we talked about leveraging the global network, it's more towards reflecting on the immediate circumstances and danger that was present in the United Arab Emirates and specifically in Dubai, where there is Crown and one other can manufacturer amongst a whole host of manufacturing companies that were threatened with drones and missile strikes. We were able to leverage from the other operations in the Middle East. Obviously, we were able to reroute and redirect aluminum supplies from Asia or the Middle East or European suppliers in and out of the Middle East to other locations. That was the basis of that comment. Since I just spoke for so long, you're gonna have to remind me your second question. I apologize.

No worries. I should have mentioned, I hope everyone is safe, both at Crown and your suppliers, everyone in your circle with what's been going on in the Middle East. The question was, look, volumes have been strong for a while. Volumes were strong in the Q1, up 5% globally. Any concerns on your side that this is pre-buying? Why? Why not? Then I had a, had a follow on that I'll piggyback.

Yeah. You know, hard to know. You know, you know the North American market, George, as well as we do, you've been covering the space as long as we've been at Crown. You know, the customers are, you know, you wanna talk about just in time. They keep absolutely zero inventory. You know, they basically receive deliveries from us, and they go right into the can washer and into the filling line, within minutes, right? We have 15-minute delivery windows that we're expected to deliver into, they don't get shut down. I don't think there's a lot of pre-buy because they don't keep a lot of, they don't keep a lot of inventory and, you know, they've got direct delivery right to the store.

In Europe, could there be a little pre-buy? You know, maybe with some of the beer customers, but again, the soft drink guys not keeping a lot of inventory. The growth in Asia has been. You know, if we just take a step back and talk about Asia real quick. There has been growth in Asia for the last several years, mid to single high digit range. We elected not to participate in that for reasons surrounding the value.

Got our cost structure where we want it. We think we have the lowest cost structure of any producer in Asia. We think we're now well-positioned to afford us a different commercial strategy, and that's what you saw in the Q1. I don't think there's been any pre-buy. You know, I could be wrong. There could be some on the, on the margin, but nothing large enough, George, to move the needle.

A quick one, and I'll turn it over just to be fair. I'll leave some other beverage cans for the rest of the team. On Signode, any green shoots at all? You know, I know you suggested that the margin, you know, was a function of timing of pass-through relative to your cost inputs, and we'll, you know, obviously we'll take that at face value. You know, you're seeing some pickup in volume, when do you expect we're going to see, along with green shoots, kind of a pickup in margin there? 'Cause that's, you know, ultimately trapped earnings at some point that could leverage to the benefit. Anyway, I'll turn it over there. Thanks for your time. Good luck in the quarter.

Thanks for the question. You know, data, January data looked pretty promising. Although I saw consumer sentiment the other day, is it, I don't know if it's University of Michigan or who publishes it, but it was just dreadful. I think the last two months have been bad, and I think we're at the lowest level ever, is what I read the other day. Having said that, volumes have held up fairly well on the commodity side, although there has been some margin squeeze. On the equipment and tool side, where the margins are much higher, there has been volume loss over the last couple of years. Now, in the month of April, we have seen order inflows at much higher rates, 10%-20% higher than this time last year.

That typically takes about 90 days for it to manifest itself into delivery. We are, we are hopeful. I don't, I don't tell you that because I'm promising you anything, but if we're looking for a green shoot, order, orders received in the month of April, look pretty promising across equipment and tools. We are, we're hopeful for a stronger third and Q4.

Thank you, Tim. I'll turn it over.

Thanks, George.

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Philip Ng of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hey, Tim. You mentioned the beverage cans market's gonna be quite tight in the summer months in North America and Europe. Certainly there's some supply chain dynamics at large. You know, how comfortable are you in terms of meeting that demand if the market comes in a little better than call it low single-digit growth in the U.S. as well as Europe? You know, give us some context to your ability to potentially meet that demand.

Well, you know, we're only 'cause it's early in the year and as I said, we're mindful of the inflationary pressure building on the consumer. We've left our growth expectations for volume in North America at 2%-3%. We certainly have some room to do a little better than that. I'd like to wait to see how the Q2 unfolds and how the consumer reacts to, you know, what they're faced with, which is, which is higher energy across the board, whether it's their home heating and electric bill for air conditioning and/or, and/or their gasoline bill. We can go a little bit above 2%-3%, but let's be clear, Phil, we have limitations as well.

We, like every other can supplier, have a limited amount of capacity and if the market goes gangbusters, which it feels very strong now. When you look at the categories over the last 52 weeks with the exception of beer in cans, beer's only down 1.1%. Every other category is up low to mid single digits with the exception of energy, which is up almost 20%. You know, it feels like the consumers and then our customers recognizing that the consumers favor the positive characteristics of the can, that things are really positive for the can right now. We do have limitations, but we'll do our best to sell every can we can at the right price and satisfy the market. Certainly, contract customers come before spot customers.

Okay. The reason why I ask is because, I mean, your volumes for 1Q looked a little muted. Certainly, you got tougher comps in Brazil. It sounds like you have the runway to support that demand, as we kinda think about how the year unfolds in March and April. How have trends actually been trending, whether it's North America, Europe, and Asia, Middle East? I mean, certainly a lot of uncertainty on the macro front.

Yeah. We got off to a slow start in January. I mean, the month of March, I think, was the highest shipment month ever for the company, which is surprising that it happened in March, not like a May month. Yesterday was our highest shipment day ever in the history of the company. This is North America. Things are pretty firm right now. I, you know, March was a strong month, April's going to be maybe not as strong as March, but April typically is a soft month, it's going to be a strong month. Brazil, we had a pretty difficult comp. I think we were up, like, 11% last year in the Q1 of Brazil.

Not to place too much on the comp, because I do think conditions in Brazil are different than conditions in North America right now. I think the Brazilian consumer, not as resilient as the North American consumer. I think we are post-Carnival and getting into their winter months. We'll see how the market in Brazil reacts. Hopefully, the Brazilians and the Mexicans go deep into the tournament. We're pulling for both the Mexicans and the Brazilians to go as deep as possible. That will be really positive for can demand in both of those countries, and even among the Hispanic and broader Latino population across the United States.

Got it. One last quick one from me. You talked about how, you know, just given some of the supply chain in Asia, that could be an opportunity for you, shipping into places like India. Certainly, that could be an uplift on demand. Is there anything we should be mindful in terms of costs associated with that? Is that something you just pass on to the consumer, and that would be accretive to EBITDA and EBITDA margins? How should we think about that opportunity, that could be a good guide in 2Q and 3Q?

Yeah. Listen, I think if you sell more cans, you're going to make more income, right? You're going to make more earnings, more EBITDA. Percentages move around a little bit, as you know, with the pass-through of higher material costs, you always have the denominator effect. You know, if there's an opportunity for us to ship 50 to 100 million cans into the Middle East from Thailand and/or Cambodia, Vietnam, and the customers need support, we're ready and able to do that.

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate the color.

Thank you, Philip.

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Ghansham Panjabi of R.W. Baird. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Tim, you know, just going back to commodity costs, you know, obviously a big increase in oil and aluminum and pretty much everything else over the last couple of months. It sounds like you're still embedding a pretty intact volume outlook for 2026, apart from what you called out in the Middle East. Last time, you know, we had inflation a few years back, it was very tough for your end markets, in the developed markets in particular. I guess what gives you confidence on the implied resilience this go around? I know there's some distortion with the World Cup, the emerging market consumer, I would have to imagine, is much more sensitive to fuel prices, et cetera. Just going back to the question on confidence on volumes.

The big inflation that we have right now is principally in North America, and it owes to the Midwest Premium. We don't see that as much in, you know, that level of inflation in Asia and Europe.

Mm-hmm.

Your question's a good question. It's why we left our volume expectation unchanged from what we provided to you in February. We're always mindful of this. You're right, it was the second half of 2022, Kevin and I went back, and we looked at it. The big shock then was there was a rapid increase in LME from, let's say, $2,500-$4,000 a ton.

Mm-hmm.

The LME has been more or less bouncing around $3,200-$3,500 right now. It's been really the Midwest Premium that's kinda been the proxy to absorb the tariffs. Having said that, as you've said and as we've said earlier, pressure on the consumer from broader inflation and specifically energy-related inflation is there. I just, you know, what we see right now, what we're feeling right now, what the customers are asking for right now, at least through the end of the Q2, it doesn't look like it's going to slow down. Now, if your question is, could we have a shock like we had in the Q3 of 2022? Yeah, anything's possible. It just doesn't feel like it's going to happen this year.

Okay. Got it.

So-

Yeah, sorry. Go ahead.

Go ahead. I'm sorry. Go ahead.

Yeah, no, I was just gonna ask for the non-reportable segment, you know, the step function and profitability. Was there anything one-time-ish that drove that? I know you called out strength in beverage can equipment and also North American food cans. Finally, on India, can you just frame how big the market is from a unit standpoint and your current position, you know, in context of the greenfield capacity you announced? Thank you.

So the market, you know, roughly four to five billion units and growing 15%-20% per year. We supply very little into the market right now. Before there were can plants there, we supplied almost the entire market from Dubai. We have very little supply other than what we're shipping in now from Asia to cover some of the Middle Eastern supply. We're adding 2.2 billion units over, you know, a couple of years here, with a large customer under contract already. Feel pretty good about that market. Was it our first part of the question that I missed? No, I think that was it.

Non-reportable, the step function.

Non-reportable. I'm sorry. bev can equipment, I think we tripled the income in the quarter compared to last year, albeit off a lower base. food cans, again, as I said, growing 3% and utilizing more capacity. We brought new capacity on over the last several years, so utilizing that new capacity in a really balanced mix among seasonal vegetables, non-seasonal human food and pet food. Pet food making up 40%-45% of our mix nowadays. A really good mix. food closures. Surprisingly, food closures performing quite well among nutraceuticals, other nutrition drinks and some human food, if you think about condiments and jar lids, things like that.

Spread out, could there have been some minor one-off, you know, maybe not much more than a handful, Ghansham, if you're trying to understand the impact of metal carryover, maybe a handful, if even that, not that much.

Okay. Very good. Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question will be from Chris Parkinson of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you. Given all the moving parts in Asia over the last few years, and I know you've dramatically improved your operating base, can you just give us a kind of some insights on how you think about the sustainability of the inflection on a go-forward basis? It seems like there's still some, you know, mixed results on a country-by-country basis, but I'd love to hear your perspectives. Thank you.

Yeah, I don't know that we have any mixed results on a country-by-country basis. Volumes were strong throughout the division, the segment rather. Particularly strong in Cambodia, Vietnam, and China, as I mentioned. We have a number of large customers that we're partnered with, some in joint ventures, some not in joint ventures. As I said, in February, we agreed among all of us here at Crown that we were gonna take on a new commercial adjustment strategy to go out and grab more volume, it seems to have worked. There's been a fair amount of consolidation among the Chinese beverage can suppliers. It does appear that there is a slight firming in China right now, and we'll see how that progresses.

You know, as I said to Ghansham's question, there's been growth in Asia for the last several years. We've elected, by and large, not to participate in that because it was at prices that we said, were not worth participating. That has changed a little bit, and so now we're participating again. Keeping in mind, you know, we make 16%-17% operating income. It's a pretty healthy segment for us. You know, I saw your note, Chris, earlier in the week. I'm always puzzled when people say they're disappointed when we're making 17% in the packaging industry. Most packagers would like that. That is a division that we have high hopes for and we continue to support and we think it'll continue to be a really good asset for the company into the future.

Great. Just as a follow-up, you know, obviously, you've gone through your expansions in, you know, Brazil, Greece, Spain, India, and at the same time, it seems like the developed market side of it, you know, the U.S. and broadly in Western Europe, still seems pretty tight. Are there any other aspirations in terms of adding, you know, additional lines that you're considering? Is now the right time? Do you foresee others kind of taking the progress, just given the constructive, you know, S&D through the end of the decade? Just any quick perspectives on that, and then I'll be happy to pass it over. Thank you so much.

I, as you rightly point out, we have with Greece and Spain, we have some Western European expansion. Obviously, that's not Northwest, but it is Western Europe, if you will. Spain is Western Europe.

Fair.

Greece is Southwest Europe. Brazil. North America, I guess your question is probably most specific around North America. At this time, we do not see the need for Crown to expand capacity in North America. That obviously could change depending on the market and specific circumstances, but for the time being, no.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question will be from Matt Roberts of Raymond James & Associates. Your line is open.

Hey, Tim, Kevin, Tom. Good morning, everyone. On Americas segment income, for 1Q could you help parse out, you know, what was the function of lower volumes in Brazil versus weather in North America versus general inflationary pressures? On those inflationary pressures, how does 2Q compare to what you saw in 1Q in Americas, and how quickly are you able to offset those raws pressures with regards to freight, energy or coatings?

Yeah. You know that you're generally well aware of the formula price we use using PPI as a proxy to recover our non-metal costs on an annual basis. PPI has been somewhat benign. The PPI adjuster has been somewhat benign over the last couple of years. A little bit of a building pressure that perhaps last year we skirted away from it, but this year kind of caught us. We kind of knew this was gonna get us this year. You know, you've got labor. Labor goes up every year. You've got the coatings. The coatings fellows are facing pressure all the time. Especially right now with the Middle East crisis.

Warehousing costs for us in the Q1 this year, about a handful or a touch more, only as we try to warehouse more cans early on to meet what we expect to be strong summer demand. We had a little situation, a little timing situation, whereby we use some Chinese metal in some locations, and the Chinese government in January or February of last year removed the VAT refund on exported aluminum. We had one or two months comparison this year that we didn't have last year. As you point out, the mix, obviously, depending on the customer and depending on the size of the can, the profit mix in Brazil sometimes is a little better than the profit mix in North America.

You know, it's a whole bunch of things and, the second part of your question, as we said in the prepared remarks, we will significantly reduce the delta between last year and this year in the Q2. Maybe not fully, but it certainly won't be $26 million.

Thanks, Tim. I don't know if you wanna quantify, but maybe that's accepted. The January, February winter cost headwinds, was there a certain amount in one Q from that?

No, I'm not sure I wanna quantify anything. I would tell you that January volumes were down about 6%. I think February volumes were up a few % as well. It was a tough, it's a tough few weeks in there, where we had difficulty transporting, we had difficulty getting our own people to factories.

Makes sense. Thanks again, Tim. If I could sneak one more in quickly. Kevin, share repurchases, I think you said $600, I believe it was $650 before. Any change there? Is that, you know, future CapEx in regard to India, just leaving some more dry powder? Anything that we should consider there?

No, no change. It really, you know, the number's approximately $600 million. We have a little room to go higher than that. It was just putting a number out there, Matt. No change.

Appreciate it, Kevin. Thank you.

Yeah.

Thank you. Our next question will be from Anthony Pettinari of Citigroup. Your line is open.

Good morning.

Good morning.

With the $0.10 hit from the Middle East, is that primarily hitting your Europe segment where I guess those assets sit, or is it sort of spread across the company? Is there any kind of assumptions around, you know, you talk about, you know, ocean freight, energy, direct materials, those costs, you know, staying at current levels, maybe the conflict resolving at some point, and then, you know, maybe coming down or maybe going up further. I'm just wondering if there's any kind of, you know, color you can give around sort of the assumptions around that $0.10.

You know, most of it will be in the European segment. Depending on ocean freight, we could have, you know, $0.01 in the U.S. as we bring metal into India and U.S., into parts of the Americas business, not the U.S., but parts of the Americas business from China. Certainly, ocean freight as it relates to the Asian business, 'cause we do move cans and materials around Asia as well. And then energy, if you think about diesel and some of the industrial gases, LPG, LNG, et cetera, into Asia, many of the markets are subsidized, where there's little impact to us, but there are some markets that are not subsidized. We have forecast a bit of a headwind in the Asian, you know, maybe $0.01 or $0.02 in Asia as well.

Got it. Got it. Just generally, I mean, directionally, you expect these costs to maintain at current levels towards the end of the year or some relief?

Well, I think your leading assumption is probably correct, that even if the conflict resolves itself, we're going to see elevated costs for some period of time. Obviously we're working on plans right now to minimize the cost and/or share costs with customers right now. Your assumption is correct. Costs will remain elevated for some period of time. They will ultimately fall back depending on demand and industrial activity. We, like you, expect them to remain elevated.

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. Then just one quick one on non-reportable. You obviously had a really strong first half, or first, Q4, Q1 in North American food cans. You talked about some of the reasons behind that with pet food and growing faster in the market. As you look to the second half, do those comps get tougher or is there anything from like a timing perspective? I'm just wondering, you know, the sort of the trajectory in North American food cans and if you lap any kind of customer wins or if there's anything we should be mindful of in terms of modeling that maybe more in the back half of the year.

Yeah. I don't think there's any notable customer wins on the food can side or the closure side. I think it's, we have two customers that are growing, so they have wins. Because they're, Crown contract customers, we by default get their win. Good question. Q2, I think we expect earnings and other to be up in the Q2 and maybe the comps get a little bit more difficult in Q3 and Q4. You're not likely to see the big outperformance in Q3 and Q4 that you see in Q1, and then a little smaller in Q2.

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Thank you.

Our next question will be from Joshua Spector of UBS. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning, everyone. It's Anojja Shah sitting in for Josh.

Good morning.

Hi. Sticking with that food cans question, we're seeing fertilizer prices increasing quite significantly this year right ahead of planting season. What does that mean for the pack season this year? Do you think that means that they'll plant less and have less of a yield this year?

They'll plant as much as they think they can sell. They'll plant as much as what the demand from the retail or the wholesale markets tell them that they have to plant. I don't know. To be honest with you, I don't know if they hedge fertilizer or not. You know, I do think we're gonna see a stronger period of food can and at-home consumption here as inflation begins to pull at the consumer. As President Obama once said, "Maybe it's time people start eating their peas again." One of my favorite lines from President Obama. I don't think that our customers will necessarily plant less.

They are, by and large, the food industry has become much healthier over the last decade. Consolidation has helped them do that. They are broadly specialized among certain kinds of vegetables, soup, pet food. I mean, pet food, again, fertilizer has something, a little to do with pet food, not much. I don't think they're going to plant less, no.

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. Just switching over to Mexico-

I'm sorry. The only thing I would say is if you're hearing that in the market, you follow the cattle cycle. You know the cattle cycle is at a 75-year low, principally because of drought conditions in the Midwest. When we talk about human food versus feed grains and feedstocks, there could be a difference in how much feedstock gets planted versus human stock.

Okay. Okay. Thank you. Switching over to Mexico, can you just talk about, I think your volumes, just backing into it, were probably pretty strong in Q1, which is a little surprising to me because they just put that second sugar tax in. Maybe we could just get an update on what happened in Mexico in Q1 and then what you're expecting for the rest of the year.

I think we're, you know, Mexico up about 4% in the Q1. Kind of expecting a flatter year, to be honest with you. We'll see how the year goes. Both glass and metal did well, with cans up 4%. We are currently modeling Mexico to be flat year-over-year.

The sugar tax?

We're mostly a beer supplier in Mexico.

Oh, right. Okay. All right. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Thank you.

All right, our next question will be from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, apologies if I missed this, but maybe you guys can offer your thoughts on the tariffs and the potential impact, especially the 232 Tariffs. Just wondering, you know, I know that you guys have already absorbed some of the or the Midwest Premium has already kind of increased the cost of the can, but any further impacts you expect here from, and then also on the steel side, is there any impacts there that would, you know, potentially impact food and aerosol? How do you see that playing out as far as demand? Thanks.

I mean, other than the Supreme Court striking down some of the Liberation Day tariffs, 232 and 301 are largely unchanged, right? Demand remains pretty strong in both food cans and beverage. I don't see any near term impact. Generally, my feeling about tariffs is they're not helpful. It's a distortion. The administration is picking one industry over several other industries to be a winner. You know, if they think they're saving 300 jobs at a steel mill, they're putting at risk 50,000 jobs across a whole host of other industries. So not helpful. It is what it is, and we dealt with this in the first Trump administration and we'll deal with it again. It's poor policy by any measure.

I don't think he's gonna listen to a CEO of a can company if he's gonna listen to anybody, so. You know, we soldier on. The good thing for us is that the can, you know, if you think about food cans, still offers the best bargain, the best benefit, some of the highest nutritional levels of any packaged food or fresh food to the consumer, especially in times of inflation. We feel good about the product and the product line we're in. On the beverage can side, I think by and large, younger generations are embracing the can. You know, like they say, my father's generation was a can drinker, I was a bottle drinker, and now my kids are can drinkers, and they are the drinkers of the future.

Things look to be pretty positive. There are a lot of things to like about the beverage can, and I think the consumers are grasping that, and that's positive. We've not seen any near term, nor do I see any long-term damage currently as it relates to tariffs.

Okay, thanks for that. I guess, just as a follow-up, just wanted to get your thoughts a little bit more on Americas Beverage. Where are you guys, I guess, on the PPI? I know that there is maybe a drag from that this year, but does that kind of subside and maybe reverse next year, especially given some of the inflation that we're seeing? I guess, does that, you know, mean that you know that you weren't gonna put it in any capacity, but do you think next year you could kinda grow in that low single-digit volume, and then segment income would be maybe above that just given the a reversal of PPI? Thanks.

Well, you're let's say we hope you're right. I think it's really early to talk about next year. We're only in April. I'm gonna pass on that.

Thanks.

Thank you, Arun Viswanathan.

All right, our next question will be from Hillary Cacanando of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Could you just remind us how, you know, pass-throughs are designed in your contract? You know, how long are the lags? How much are pass-through? You know, any hedges that you may have on the ones that are, the portion that's not pass-through? Thank you.

Generally, I'll say generally because it's not the same in every region of the world, but in the, in the big markets, we have total pass-through on LME premium and conversion of ingot to canned sheet. On metal, think about metal as pass-through. Many of our customers elect to hedge aluminum, but we pass through. The formula for passing non-metal costs through on an annual basis, we pass through a percentage of the PPI index and/or CPI, depending, again, depending on the region of the world. Not a perfect proxy for our costs every year, but it's designed to capture some of the increase. We do pass through freight and energy across many contracts.

Non-freight, non-energy, if you think about labor, which goes up every year, and then other direct material costs like coatings and other system costs like warehousing, from time to time, the PPI is either more or less than our actual cost. This year, our actual cost, input costs are a little higher than the formula we had January 1.

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Thank you very much. In terms of capital allocation, you know, you mentioned, you know, no change this year. As we look out further, you know, do you expect any changes in terms of, you know, CapEx? You have, you know, greenfield, you know, that you're planning. Any changes in buyback plans, you know, as we look further out?

Well, I think we're gonna. You know, we have the great fortune of being in a packaging company, being in a can company, and we have the great fortune of having a portfolio of businesses that generates a lot of cash flow. Your hope and our hope is that we're not foolish with that cash flow. We are going to invest to grow our business from time to time. Where we have greenfield and/or brownfield opportunities, we look to do that to support our customers' growth objectives. Beyond that, currently, beyond our own capital needs, as we've declared, we're going to pay a dividend and we're gonna buy back shares. Kevin, you wanna talk about shares or?

Yeah. Look, I think, you know, as Tim said, the first thing we're gonna do is invest in the business. After that, we're gonna pay the dividend, which we just increased. Then with remaining cash that's left over, we'll repurchase stock. We'll do it somewhat on a program basis, but also, you know, when we feel that there's good value, we'll be opportunistic and buy a little more within each of the quarters. Look, our plans haven't changed. I think on a long-term basis, we'll average, you know, somewhere around $500 million of capital a year, which gives us plenty of money to, you know, pay the dividend and buy back stock. So.

Got it, please. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

You're welcome. Thank you.

Our next question will be from Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Thank you, Tim, Kevin, Tom, for taking my questions. Tim, not trying to be a dead horse over here, but just wanted to grab your thoughts on consumer elasticity. You mentioned the consumers have been resilient thus far, but it does sound like some of the larger CPG customers are all planning to raise prices this year. Obviously, consumers are, as you mentioned, are contending with elevated costs. How do you think about consumer demand the next 12 months, relative to possibly higher prices from your customers as well as increasing costs that consumers are facing?

Listen, I agree with you. There's only so much the consumer can absorb before they have to start making choices. One thing they're not going to do is not put gas in their car because they have to get to work. We know that the choices that they make, that they have to make first before they buy packaged goods. Fortunately for us, people have to eat and drink. As I said earlier, canned food offers by and large the best value for a family to prepare nutritious food on a daily basis. We're always concerned about demand, but we're less so concerned about that. On the beverage can side, again, you know, you start making choices. You don't go out to dinner so much. Maybe travel is lower.

I don't know. I'm looking at the price of airfares these days with jet fuel. Maybe people don't travel so much, and they stay closer to home. Generally, we do much better with consumption when people stay closer to home. It does feel, as we sit here today, I know Ghansham was circling around the same question earlier. I take the point. We are equally as mindful as you are about the pressure on consumers. As we sit here today, it feels like we're gonna be into a very strong summer.

Got it. Thank you for that, Tim. Just one quick follow-up. You mentioned, Tim, in a comment not too recently, that you're working on plans to mitigate costs and or share costs with your customers. Can you provide any more color around what those initiatives are, surcharges and the like? Just anything can help you could elucidate on in terms of sharing costs with customers? Thanks.

Yeah, I don't, you know, I think I wanna discuss too much of what our strategy and/or plan would be in that regard. There's a limit to how much any company or anybody within a supply chain can absorb. Depending on how long costs stay elevated or how elevated they are, there are different conversations that need to be had. That's all that point meant.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question will be coming from Jeffrey Zekauskas of J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

Thanks very much. You talked about catching up to higher raw material costs in your transit business. Do you buy much polyethylene in that? Polyethylene prices in March maybe were up $0.10 a pound. In April, maybe they'll be up $0.30 a pound. There seems to be a rising dynamic there. For Kevin, in cash flows from financing activities, there was an other net use of cash of $107 million. What was that? Are there any positive offsets to that later in the year?

Okay. Jeff, I'll address the financing item. Basically, that $100 million, a little bit less than that, related to our North American securitization program. At the end of the year, as we sell receivables, we end up collecting more on the receivables that we sold. As a result, we have to repay the bank. I fully expect that amount to basically reverse itself and be closer to zero by the end of the year.

To your first question, Jeffrey, you're right. There are rising input costs all over the Transit Packaging business. We don't have a lot of resin-based. We have some resin-based, not a lot of resin-based businesses within Transit Packaging. There's rising costs everywhere, whether it's steel, paper, resin, we have to do a better job of maintaining and expanding margins in the business.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our last question will be coming from Edgar Rodriguez of Mizuho. Your line is open.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I mean, Tim, you talk about that potential impact on the consumer because of inflation. Like, where do you think you could see the most impact? Is it in Southeast Asia, you know, where those people are becoming under much, lot of pressure? Is it in Europe? Like, where do you think you could see the most impact in terms of, you know, the consumer being impacted by inflation as much?

I think the markets you would expect would first be markets like Brazil, Mexico, maybe Southern Europe, maybe parts of Asia, although there's so much growth in Asia right now that it feels like we're gonna grow through this in Asia. You know, I think the only thing I worry about in Europe, I don't know how big the tourism season will be in Southern Europe this year. Airfares are really high. People are stretched anyway. Do they postpone the European vacation or not? We'll see. But again, everything the demand we have right now in Europe is extraordinary. We don't see it letting up. We've probably, at the beginning of the year, would have expected mid to, you know, higher volumes in Europe for the year.

Maybe we've haircutted our assumption out of 4%, but we're still expecting growth. The four might be too low as well. Let's not kid ourselves. Things are pretty firm. Brazil feels like it's, there's a weakening in Brazil right now, and they have some elections, so we'll see how the market reacts. It's also wintertime, so it's hard to gauge it. We'll see if the World Cup bolsters it. In Mexico, we had a pretty strong start to the year, principally in beer, and we'll see how that holds up, although we are expecting a flatter performance in Mexico.

you know, as Ghansham pointed out earlier, four years ago, even in North America, the consumer bought the higher prices across the board when inflation shot up. could we see that again here in North America? We could, although, again, conditions feel really firm right now. it just doesn't feel like we're in the same place as we were in 2022.

Yeah. Again, thank you for the color. That's all I have. Thanks.

Thank you very much, Edgar. Okay, Elle, thank you. I think you said that was the last question. That concludes today's call. As always, we thank you for joining us, and we'll speak with you again in July. Bye now.

Once again, that concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect and have a great day.