B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$148.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CCK
CrownANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a constructive operating thesis: strong global beverage-can volumes, higher adjusted EPS, raised FY26 guidance, substantial free cash flow, continued repurchases, and planned capacity expansion. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-20]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Brazil, Greece, Spain, and Northern India capacity projects create execution and capital-allocation risk.
Momentum
42
Value
66
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $135.00 · Bull $148.00 · Bear $104.00Analysis 2026-08-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $135.43
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d +1.5
Value66 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment75 · Δ7d +0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Brazil, Greece, Spain, and Northern India capacity projects create execution and capital-allocation risk.
- • CEO open-market sales were disclosed in June and July 2026, though insider activity is not direct evidence of operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-23] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-15]
- • The thesis remains exposed to softer Latin American demand, Middle East-related operating headwinds, input-cost recovery and pass-through execution, and the risk that capacity investments underperform or take longer to ramp.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-20
Q2 operating strength and raised FY26 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-25.9
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+8.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 42.4 / Value 66.2 / Sentiment 74.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.64B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
108.76M
P/E (TTM)
13.1
P/S (TTM)
1.00
P/FCF (TTM)
13.72
Rev YoY
+17.2%
EPS YoY
+42.8%
Gross Margin
+17.6%
Op Margin
+12.8%
Net Debt
$5.3B
Current Ratio
1.05
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data