B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
+26.3% vs current
CBOE
Cboe Global MarketsACboe BZX / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$305.00
+7.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
-10.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-04
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.4
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+18.6
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+60.1
Score
AI commentary
This T+3 follow-up shifted the thesis from pre-earnings constructive to post-earnings cautious-positive but valuation-aware. Primary company evidence is strong and clearly positive on the print, and secondary coverage points to an immediate favorable market reaction and some upward estimate revisions, but analyst follow-through is still mixed rather than uniformly bullish. Headline buzz is high because earnings, raised guidance, cost cuts, and workforce reduction all landed on May 1, 2026; with the stock already trading above the packet's analyst-target mean, sentiment can stay constructive while near-term upside becomes harder to underwrite with high confidence.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-04
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-31catalystPost-earnings estimate and target reset after Q1 beatMedium impact
Q1 results were materially stronger than the prior baseline, with record net revenue of $728.9 million, adjusted EPS of $3.70, higher 2026 organic revenue guidance, and lower expense guidance; secondary post-print coverage also points to upward EPS revisions and mixed target changes, suggesting the next few sessions may be driven by revision digestion more than new fundamentals [#8-K-2026-05-01].
2026-11-06catalystDurability of options and Data Vantage growth after raised guidanceHigh impact
The bullish operating question is whether record derivatives activity and Data Vantage strength can hold after Q1: options net revenue rose 33%, total net revenue rose 29%, management raised 2026 organic total net revenue growth to low double-digit to mid-teens, and lifted Data Vantage growth guidance to low double-digit while lowering adjusted operating expense guidance [#8-K-2026-05-01].
2026-12-31eventStrategic realignment execution and cost-save delivery through 2026High impact
Management disclosed additional strategic realignment actions expected to be substantially completed by the end of 2026, with roughly $36 million to $46 million of pre-tax restructuring charges, $40 million to $50 million of annualized pre-tax cost savings, and about $20 million to $25 million of 2026 savings; execution against those targets is now a reportable earnings bridge item [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-04 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology