B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CBOE
Cboe Global MarketsCCboe BZX / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case improved after the May 1, 2026 release: Cboe posted record Q1 revenue and EPS, broad-based segment growth, raised organic revenue guidance, and lowered expense guidance while pairing the outlook with additional cost actions [#8-K-2026-05-01]. Secondary post-print coverage indicates upward EPS revisions and at least one bullish target raise, which supports the idea that 2026 earnings power moved higher even after the stock's sharp run.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Execution risk around the strategic realignment is now explicit: expected restructuring charges are roughly $36 million to $46 million, savings timing runs through 2026, and position reductions are subject to local-law consultations in some countries [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Momentum
47
Value
51
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $305.00 · Bull $360.00 · Bear $255.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $314.29
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -14.9
Value51 · Δ7d -8.3
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk around the strategic realignment is now explicit: expected restructuring charges are roughly $36 million to $46 million, savings timing runs through 2026, and position reductions are subject to local-law consultations in some countries [#8-K-2026-05-01].
- • Portfolio changes, including previously announced sales, wind-downs, and resource reallocation, may improve focus but can also create integration, revenue-dislocation, and execution risk during 2026 [#8-K-2026-05-01].
- • The bear case is that a large part of the earnings upgrade now competes with valuation and execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Post-earnings estimate and target reset after Q1 beat
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.9
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.3
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
-6.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 47.4 / Value 50.8 / Sentiment 67.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$305.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$30.81B
Beta
0.35
Shares Out
104.43M
P/E (TTM)
27.1
P/S (TTM)
5.71
P/FCF (TTM)
77.50
Rev YoY
+22.9%
EPS YoY
+50.6%
Gross Margin
+51.7%
Op Margin
+35.3%
Net Debt
-$660.2M
Current Ratio
1.57
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data