B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BUSE
First BuseyCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 release supports a constructive view: adjusted EPS beat the available secondary consensus, while profitability, deposits, wealth fees, expense discipline, capital, and credit metrics were broadly favorable [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]. The stock was higher by approximately 3.5% from the July 28 close through July 30, consistent with a positive initial market read-through.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
What can break
Credit deterioration could raise provisions or net charge-offs from the reported 0.19% level.
Momentum
56
Value
46
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $27.50Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.29
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -7.9
Value46 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Credit deterioration could raise provisions or net charge-offs from the reported 0.19% level.
- • Execution risk remains around CrossFirst-related synergies, expense discipline, and growth pipelines.
- • Revenue was reported below the available secondary consensus, and no post-print analyst revision has been confirmed.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q2 earnings beat EPS, missed revenue, with positive post-print price action
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
-10.4
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+4.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 55.7 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 65.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.57B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
82.58M
P/E (TTM)
21.2
P/S (TTM)
3.36
P/FCF (TTM)
26.85
Rev YoY
-6.9%
EPS YoY
+32.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.3%
Net Debt
$309.01M
Current Ratio
0.14
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data