B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
+14.6% vs current
BNY
Bank of New York MellonBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$164.00
+4.4% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
-7.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+23.9
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+25.2
Positive
Pulse
-30.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+50.3
Score
AI commentary
News tone is positive following the earnings release and reported beat, while the stored pre-release consensus had also been revised upward. However, social coverage, post-print price reaction, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and post-earnings analyst revisions are unavailable; confidence is therefore below that of a fully triangulated earnings view. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15]
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-16
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence; peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-15eventQ2 2026 earnings beat and record revenueMedium impact
BNY reported Q2 EPS of $2.45 and record revenue of $5.7 billion, with revenue up 13% year over year, 39.8% pre-tax margin, and 31.3% ROTCE. Fee revenue and net interest income also grew strongly. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15]
2026-07-15eventQ2 capital return actionMedium impact
BNY returned $1.5 billion to common shareholders in Q2, including $1.1 billion of repurchases, while maintaining an 87% year-to-date payout ratio. Capital flexibility is supportive, although leverage and CET1 ratios declined year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15]
2027-07-16catalystBroad-based client activity and operating leverageMedium impact
Management cited broad-based growth across Securities Services, Market and Wealth Services, and Investment and Wealth Management, alongside record sales and positive operating leverage. Sustained execution could support earnings momentum, but post-print durability remains unconfirmed. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology