BAER

Bridger Aerospace GroupA

Nasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

20%

Probability

Target price

$5.25

+138.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$3.00

+36.4% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$1.50

-31.8% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-29

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence is strong but coverage is thin: the earnings release/8-K/10-Q confirm a seasonal Q1, reiterated FY26 guidance, the DOI contract, and a balance sheet that is still levered. Missing analyst revisions, target history, and post-print reaction data keep this a cautious monitoring report rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-06-30catalystQ1 reset keeps focus on the fire-season rampHigh impact

Bridger reported Q1 revenue of $8.5 million and a $(31.3) million net loss, but reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million-$145 million and adjusted EBITDA of $55 million-$60 million; the stock now trades on whether the summer ramp converts readiness into actual revenue [#8-K-2026-05-12] [#10-Q-2026-05-08].

2026-10-31eventDOI IDIQ expands utilization visibilityHigh impact

The May 6 release disclosed a five-year, $18.6 million U.S. Department of the Interior on-call fixed-wing transport contract running from April 2026 through March 2031, which should support light-aircraft utilization and gives the fleet another recurring revenue leg [#8-K-2026-05-12].

2026-12-31catalystPeak-season fleet readiness could re-rate the nameHigh impact

Management says the fleet is positioned for an active fire season, and the 10-Q shows the company still carrying $9.0 million of cash against $215.9 million of long-term debt and a $6.0 million revolver draw, so sustained utilization and margin conversion are the key medium-term swing factors [#10-Q-2026-05-08].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology