B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$1.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BAER
Bridger Aerospace GroupBNasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Longer guaranteed task orders, elevated wildfire activity, and the Texas A&M contract could improve fleet utilization and diversify growth toward engineering and intelligence work while 2026 guidance remains intact.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Execution risk remains around fleet readiness, aircraft deployment, and the multi-year Texas A&M modification and delivery program.
Momentum
98
Value
45
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.15 · Bull $1.70 · Bear $0.65Analysis 2026-09-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.67
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -
Value45 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk remains around fleet readiness, aircraft deployment, and the multi-year Texas A&M modification and delivery program.
- • Large open-market sales by a 10% holder may pressure a thinly traded, low-market-cap stock.
- • Q2 adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, the company remains seasonally dependent, and execution on aircraft deployment, modification, and delivery could disappoint.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 results retained full-year guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-6.1
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 98.2 / Value 45.5 / Sentiment 73.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$1.15
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$0.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$70M
Beta
0.14
Shares Out
58.83M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.8
P/S (TTM)
0.79
P/FCF (TTM)
4.23
Rev YoY
-0.8%
EPS YoY
+14.8%
Gross Margin
+36.3%
Op Margin
+10.6%
Net Debt
$213.5M
Current Ratio
1.73
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data