B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVAV
AeroVironmentCNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-10
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.7
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+69.1
Score
AI commentary
T+1 headlines describe a positive immediate share-price reaction to the earnings release, consistent with record revenue and backlog, but the packet does not establish the exact move or whether it persisted. News tone is constructive; social coverage is unavailable, and the zero-valued social, options, short-interest, and employee fields denote missing evidence rather than neutral readings. Post-print analyst revisions are also unavailable, so the upgraded operating evidence warrants monitoring rather than a high-conviction bullish call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-10
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-15catalystPost-earnings margin and execution testMedium impact
Fiscal Q1 revenue reached $480.5 million, 6% above the prior-year period, while gross margin improved to 26% from 21% and the operating loss narrowed to $10.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA nevertheless declined to $53.4 million from $56.6 million, leaving execution and underlying profitability as key tests after the positive initial reaction [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
2027-04-30eventFY2027 guidance deliveryHigh impact
Management retained FY2027 revenue guidance of $2.125-$2.225 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $305-$325 million, and adjusted EPS of $3.02-$3.34. Conversion against those ranges is the principal event path through the fiscal year; acquisition integration, government-contract timing, and demand remain explicit assumptions [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
2027-09-10catalystBacklog conversion and capacity expansionHigh impact
Bookings totaled $0.7 billion, quarterly book-to-bill was 1.4, and funded backlog rose 37% year over year to a record $1.5 billion. Management identified manufacturing-capacity expansion and supply-chain strengthening as priorities, supporting growth if firm orders convert without material cost or schedule slippage [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology