B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$450.00
+120.2% vs current
AVAV
AeroVironmentCNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$388.00
+89.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
+39.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-01-18
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-
Unavailable
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+100.0
Score
AI commentary
Market sentiment is mixed. Analyst targets cluster around the mid‑300s while highs reach $450, producing a bifurcated view: upside tied to contract wins and margin expansion, downside tied to execution or budget shifts. Given the base target sits modestly below the current anchor, near‑term price action is likely to be event‑driven (earnings, contract announcements) and volatile until order conversion and margin progress are visible.
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-01-18
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-18catalystNear-term Government Contract Awards / Order FlowHigh impact
Contract announcements or order flow during the next 90 days could swing revenue visibility and margins; historically cited as primary upside triggers for AVAV [#SERP-3], [#SERP-5]. Assumed typical contract cadence within 90 days.
2026-04-30eventFY/Q4 2026 Earnings ReleaseHigh impact
Company FY/Q4 report expected in April 2026; timing estimated from analyst FY report window and consensus sources (assume quarter-end release) [#SERP-1]. Financials and guidance could drive a material re-rate. Assumption: FY report date window end used for planning.
2027-01-18catalystScale-up of Production / Product Line ExpansionHigh impact
Multi‑quarter ramp in production capacity and new autonomous systems adoption could sustain revenue growth and margin expansion; long-term structural upside if execution proceeds [#SERP-4], [#SERP-6]. Date set one year ahead to reflect execution/readthrough timeframe.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-01-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology