B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVAV
AeroVironmentCNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record first-quarter revenue, a 1.4 book-to-bill ratio, record $1.5 billion funded backlog, and retained full-year guidance indicate that demand remains healthy. Revenue also exceeded the packet's pre-report consensus reference of $459 million, although that reference comes from secondary coverage rather than a verified consensus feed [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Acquisition-related amortization and purchase-accounting expenses remain substantial, while integration risk is embedded in management's outlook assumptions [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
Momentum
15
Value
39
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $155.00 · Bull $190.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-09-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $225.22
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +1.7
Value39 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d -9.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition-related amortization and purchase-accounting expenses remain substantial, while integration risk is embedded in management's outlook assumptions [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
- • Adjusted EBITDA declined to $53.4 million from $56.6 million despite higher revenue, raising questions about underlying operating leverage [#SEC-8K-2026-09-09].
- • Adjusted EBITDA declined year over year despite revenue and gross-margin improvement, and the company still reported a GAAP operating loss.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-15
Post-earnings margin and execution test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
-47.1
Value
39
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.5
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.5
Δ21d
+10.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 15.0 / Value 39.3 / Sentiment 69.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.21B
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
50.82M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-33.5
P/S (TTM)
10.84
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-59.64
Rev YoY
+133.3%
EPS YoY
+112.2%
Gross Margin
+18.9%
Op Margin
-1.1%
Net Debt
$202.49M
Current Ratio
4.30
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data