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Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-08-13Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income ...
GuruFocus.com
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Release Date: August 13, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Attributable net income reached 577 billion Colombian pesos, up 17% YoY, the highest quarterly result since March 2022, with ROAE at 12.7%. Loan growth accelerated with gross loans up 2.1% QoQ and 7.6% YoY, driven by strong commercial and retail loan expansion. Net interest margin improved to 5.5% in Q2 2026, benefiting from strong investment portfolio performance and disciplined repricing. Asset quality remained stable with 90-day PDLs at 3.13%, improving 44 basis points YoY, and cost of risk well controlled at 1.9%. Successful completion of the Itau retail business transfer to Banco de Bogota, adding over 250,000 customers and strengthening retail franchise. Technology strategy execution is progressing, with digital adoption at 67% and AI-enabled solutions handling 30% of portal installs, driving efficiency and innovation. Inflation in Colombia rose to 6.0% in July, moving further from the central bank's target, leading to higher interest rates and potential margin pressure. The central bank raised its policy rate to 12% in June, and further increases are expected, which could weigh on loan growth and asset quality. Fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.7% of GDP in 2026, above the target, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and economic stability. The earthquake in Colombia caused temporary service interruptions and could impact asset quality and operational performance in affected regions. Consumer loan market share declined 125 basis points YoY due to an underweight in personal loans, which are the main driver of consumer lending growth. The company's guidance for 2026 ROAE is 9.25%, below the current quarterly run rate, reflecting caution about second-half headwinds from higher rates and potential tax increases. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with BIRDF. Is AVAL fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Q: Why is the 2026 ROAE guidance of 9.25% lower than the ~10% ROE run rate in the first half of the year, especially given the strong quarter and the absence of the wealth tax in Q2?A: Diego Solano, CFO, explained that the guidance is intentionally conservative due to several short-term headwinds. These include an extraordinary first half…Read full documentShow less
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Release Date: August 13, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Attributable net income reached 577 billion Colombian pesos, up 17% YoY, the highest quarterly result since March 2022, with ROAE at 12.7%. Loan growth accelerated with gross loans up 2.1% QoQ and 7.6% YoY, driven by strong commercial and retail loan expansion. Net interest margin improved to 5.5% in Q2 2026, benefiting from strong investment portfolio performance and disciplined repricing. Asset quality remained stable with 90-day PDLs at 3.13%, improving 44 basis points YoY, and cost of risk well controlled at 1.9%. Successful completion of the Itau retail business transfer to Banco de Bogota, adding over 250,000 customers and strengthening retail franchise. Technology strategy execution is progressing, with digital adoption at 67% and AI-enabled solutions handling 30% of portal installs, driving efficiency and innovation. Inflation in Colombia rose to 6.0% in July, moving further from the central bank's target, leading to higher interest rates and potential margin pressure. The central bank raised its policy rate to 12% in June, and further increases are expected, which could weigh on loan growth and asset quality. Fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.7% of GDP in 2026, above the target, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and economic stability. The earthquake in Colombia caused temporary service interruptions and could impact asset quality and operational performance in affected regions. Consumer loan market share declined 125 basis points YoY due to an underweight in personal loans, which are the main driver of consumer lending growth. The company's guidance for 2026 ROAE is 9.25%, below the current quarterly run rate, reflecting caution about second-half headwinds from higher rates and potential tax increases. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with BIRDF. Is AVAL fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Q: Why is the 2026 ROAE guidance of 9.25% lower than the ~10% ROE run rate in the first half of the year, especially given the strong quarter and the absence of the wealth tax in Q2?A: Diego Solano, CFO, explained that the guidance is intentionally conservative due to several short-term headwinds. These include an extraordinary first half in fixed income that is not expected to repeat, the cumulative effect of central bank rate hikes (with a potential for another 50bps increase), and caution around the potential impact of the earthquake on asset quality. He noted that while the medium-to-long-term outlook is positive, the second half is expected to face some pressure. Q: What is the expected impact on the effective tax rate if the proposed local tax (SICA) increase in Bogota is approved?A: Maria Lorena Gutierrez-Botero, CEO, stated that the proposed 30% increase in the local SICA tax is a concern for the financial sector. She estimated that if the tax passes, it could cost the financial sector approximately 500,000 million Colombian pesos more. The company is preparing numbers to be ready, but it is not a current concern as the project is still under discussion. Q: Are you concerned about margin pressures given that the strong trading income is not sustainable and interest expenses are rising faster than interest income on a consolidated basis?A: Diego Solano, CFO, acknowledged the caution for the remaining quarters of the year due to potential further rate hikes. However, he highlighted that the medium-term potential for rate reductions is higher. He reiterated that without the effect of derivatives, the NIM would have been 4.6%, and the strategy of repricing loans and a favorable liquidity environment with lower deposit pass-through is paying off, bringing the group closer to the end of the rate hike cycle. Q: What is the reason behind the recent slowdown in consumer loan growth and market share loss, and do you expect to resume growth, especially with the Itau transaction?A: Diego Solano, CFO, explained that the slowdown is a strategic choice. The bank has been historically overweighted in payroll lending and underweighted in faster-growing segments like personal loans and credit cards. The strategy is to reduce interest rate sensitivity and improve NIM by shifting the portfolio mix. The Itau transaction is expected to accelerate this process by gaining a couple of years of growth in the desired segments. Q: Given the increase in 30-day past-due loans and the potential impacts of the earthquake and El Nino, what is your outlook for asset quality?A: Diego Solano, CFO, stated that they are not concerned about asset quality, though there may be some "spikes in the road." He noted that new loan formation is spiky but in line with historical numbers, and Stage 2 and 3 loans are behaving well. The company is being careful with sectors suffering from the exchange rate, but overall, they see stability and proper performance of the economy. Q: With the new government, do you see upside risks for the profit contribution from Corfi Colombiana and Porvenir?A: Maria Lorena Gutierrez-Botero, CEO, and Diego Solano, CFO, expressed a positive outlook. They expect Corfi Colombiana to benefit from the new administration's focus on investment and developing delayed projects, including the construction of a new stadium. Porvenir is expected to benefit from clarity on pension reform and positive market performance. They also see an upside from the central bank rate as fiscal policy becomes clearer. Q: Can you provide more detail on the technology strategy and how it is translating into growth and efficiency?A: Ernesto Gutierrez, Chief Technology Officer, detailed the four pillars of the strategy: 360-degree customer knowledge, accelerating digital products, the Deltos data platform, and the Aurora cloud strategy. He highlighted that 67% of customers use digital channels, AI is handling 30% of portal installs, and the new digital loan solution is on track for Q4. The strategy is designed to create structural efficiency and a virtuous cycle where savings fund further transformation. Q: What is the outlook for the Colombian economy and inflation, and how does this affect the central bank's policy rate?A: Camilo Perez, Chief Economist, stated that GDP growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2026, with a K-shaped recovery. Inflation is expected to continue its upward trend, ending the year at 6.8%. Given high inflation and a vulnerable fiscal situation, the central bank is likely to continue raising rates, with the policy rate expected to peak at 12.50% in the coming months. Q: What were the main drivers of the strong quarterly net income and NIM expansion?A: Diego Solano, CFO, attributed the strong results to a solid trading and investment income driven by exceptionally strong capital markets, a 21 basis point improvement in NIM on loans in the banking segment, and a lower deposit pass-through. The total NIM increased 217 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 5.51%, and the banking segment's spread between loan yield and cost of deposits reached its highest level in 10 quarters. Q: Can you provide an update on the integration of the Itau retail business and its expected contribution?A: Maria Lorena Gutierrez-Botero, CEO, confirmed that Banco de Bogota completed the transfer of the retail banking assets, liabilities, and contracts from Itau on July 31. The transaction brings over 250,000 retail banking customers and reinforces Banco de Bogota's strategy to grow its retail banking franchise, especially in the asset segment. The 2026 guidance includes the contribution of this transaction, with retail loans expected to grow in the 14% area. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-08-13Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
MarketBeat
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Interested in Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.? Here are five stocks we like better. Second-quarter profit rose 17% year over year to COP 577 billion, supported by loan and deposit growth, strong investment performance and stable credit quality; return on average equity reached 12.7%. Gross loans grew 7.6% annually to COP 198 trillion, while deposits increased 11.5% to COP 221 trillion. Management is shifting consumer lending away from payroll loans toward higher-yielding personal loans and credit cards, with the Itaú Colombia retail acquisition adding more than 250,000 customers. Grupo Aval maintained its 2026 ROAE outlook of about 9.25% and expects roughly 10.5% loan growth, a 4.2% consolidated net interest margin and 1.9% net cost of risk, while taking a more cautious view of investment income after an unusually strong first half. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (NYSE:AVAL) reported second-quarter attributed net income of COP 577 billion, up 17% from the same period a year earlier, as loan and deposit growth, investment-portfolio performance and stable credit quality supported results. Return on average equity reached 12.7% for the quarter, while return on average assets was 1.1%. Chief Executive Officer María Lorena Gutiérrez Botero said the quarterly profit was the group’s “highest quality result since March 2022,” reflecting strengthening profitability, controlled risk and efficiency gains. → AST SpaceMobile Earnings Just Reminded Investors How Risky Space Can Be The Colombian financial group also said it has completed the transfer of Banco Itaú’s Colombian retail banking assets, liabilities and contracts to Banco de Bogotá. The transaction, completed July 31, added more than 250,000 retail banking customers and is intended to strengthen Banco de Bogotá’s position in the affluent retail segment. Gross loans increased 2.1% from the first quarter and 7.6% year over year, reaching COP 198 trillion. Peso-denominated lending rose 2.4% sequentially and 9.3% from a year earlier. Commercial loans grew 2.4% during the quarter, while consumer lending rose 1.1% and mortgages increased 2.9%. → Nebius’ Q2 Beat Shows the AI Bottleneck Is Capacity, Not Demand Within consumer lending, personal loans grew 4.5% from the prior quarter and 18.2% year over year, while credit-card balances rose 4.5% sequentially. Payroll loans, which account for 53% of the consumer portfoli…Read full documentShow less
Interested in Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.? Here are five stocks we like better. Second-quarter profit rose 17% year over year to COP 577 billion, supported by loan and deposit growth, strong investment performance and stable credit quality; return on average equity reached 12.7%. Gross loans grew 7.6% annually to COP 198 trillion, while deposits increased 11.5% to COP 221 trillion. Management is shifting consumer lending away from payroll loans toward higher-yielding personal loans and credit cards, with the Itaú Colombia retail acquisition adding more than 250,000 customers. Grupo Aval maintained its 2026 ROAE outlook of about 9.25% and expects roughly 10.5% loan growth, a 4.2% consolidated net interest margin and 1.9% net cost of risk, while taking a more cautious view of investment income after an unusually strong first half. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores (NYSE:AVAL) reported second-quarter attributed net income of COP 577 billion, up 17% from the same period a year earlier, as loan and deposit growth, investment-portfolio performance and stable credit quality supported results. Return on average equity reached 12.7% for the quarter, while return on average assets was 1.1%. Chief Executive Officer María Lorena Gutiérrez Botero said the quarterly profit was the group’s “highest quality result since March 2022,” reflecting strengthening profitability, controlled risk and efficiency gains. → AST SpaceMobile Earnings Just Reminded Investors How Risky Space Can Be The Colombian financial group also said it has completed the transfer of Banco Itaú’s Colombian retail banking assets, liabilities and contracts to Banco de Bogotá. The transaction, completed July 31, added more than 250,000 retail banking customers and is intended to strengthen Banco de Bogotá’s position in the affluent retail segment. Gross loans increased 2.1% from the first quarter and 7.6% year over year, reaching COP 198 trillion. Peso-denominated lending rose 2.4% sequentially and 9.3% from a year earlier. Commercial loans grew 2.4% during the quarter, while consumer lending rose 1.1% and mortgages increased 2.9%. → Nebius’ Q2 Beat Shows the AI Bottleneck Is Capacity, Not Demand Within consumer lending, personal loans grew 4.5% from the prior quarter and 18.2% year over year, while credit-card balances rose 4.5% sequentially. Payroll loans, which account for 53% of the consumer portfolio, contracted 1.2% both sequentially and annually. Chief Financial Officer Diego Solano said the group has been repositioning its consumer portfolio away from its historical overweight in payroll lending and toward personal loans and credit cards. He said the strategy is intended to reduce sensitivity to interest rates and improve average loan yields. The acquired Itaú retail business is expected to accelerate that shift. → On Holding's Price Stumble May Be an Opening for a Company Built to Run Total deposits rose 2.1% during the quarter and 11.5% year over year to COP 221 trillion. Total funding reached COP 292 trillion, up 3.8% sequentially and 11% annually. Grupo Aval’s deposits-to-net-loans ratio increased to 117%, which Solano described as a healthy position amid potential volatility associated with Colombia’s presidential election. Net interest income totaled COP 3.6 trillion, increasing 68.4% from the first quarter and 43.1% from the year-earlier quarter. Total net interest margin rose 217 basis points sequentially to 5.51%, aided by strong trading income from fixed-income investments during what management characterized as an exceptionally favorable capital-markets period. The consolidated net interest margin on loans was 4.41%, broadly unchanged from 4.4% in the first quarter. In the banking segment, net interest margin on loans expanded 21 basis points to 5.19%, supported by repricing of floating-rate commercial loans and a lower pass-through of central-bank rate increases to deposit costs. Solano said that, excluding derivatives used to hedge investment income, consolidated net interest margin would have been 4.6% and investment margin would have been 5.1%. The company expects approximately a 2% investment margin in its second-half planning assumptions, reflecting a more cautious outlook following the unusually strong first half. Credit metrics remained largely stable. The 90-day past-due loan ratio was 3.13%, unchanged from the prior quarter and 44 basis points lower than a year earlier. The 30-day past-due ratio was 4.41%, up 10 basis points sequentially but down 45 basis points annually. Net cost of risk was 1.9%, up 8 basis points from the first quarter and 5 basis points from a year ago. Responding to analyst questions, Solano said management was not broadly concerned about asset quality, though it was monitoring potential effects from the recent earthquake and pressure on sectors affected by the stronger peso. Grupo Aval outlined a technology strategy centered on shared digital capabilities across its financial entities. Chief Technology Officer Ernesto Gutiérrez de Piñeres said 67% of customers now conduct transactions through digital channels. The group is developing a common digital core, its Delos management-intelligence platform and the Aurora cloud infrastructure strategy. Aurora combines public-cloud capabilities from AWS and Microsoft Azure with private-cloud partnerships involving IBM and Kyndryl. Gutiérrez de Piñeres said the effort is intended to improve resiliency, scalability and security while shifting technology spending toward a more flexible model. A new digital personal-loan solution is scheduled to go live in the fourth quarter, according to management. Grupo Aval also said an artificial-intelligence-enabled solution at Nexa BPO is expected to handle 30% of a personal-installment flow. Separately, Grupo Aval said Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular and Grupo Aval Holding contributed their Corficolombiana investments to a special-purpose vehicle on June 19. Each entity retained its indirect stake in Corficolombiana. The company said the transaction was designed to simplify the ownership structure. Management maintained its 2026 return-on-average-equity guidance of about 9.25%, below the second-quarter rate. Solano cited cautious assumptions for investment income, the cumulative effect of higher policy rates and possible effects from the earthquake. Loan growth is expected to be about 10.5% for 2026, including commercial-loan growth of about 8% and retail growth of about 14%. Consolidated net interest margin is projected near 4.2%, with net interest margin on loans around 4.4%. Net cost of risk is expected near 1.9%, while cost to assets is forecast at approximately 2.9%. Banco de Bogotá Chief Economist Camilo Pérez said Colombia’s economy grew 2.3% in the second quarter, supported by consumption, public administration and utilities, but said agriculture, mining, manufacturing and construction remained weak. Grupo Aval expects Colombia’s gross domestic product to grow about 2.4% in 2026. Pérez said annual inflation reached 6% in July and is expected to end the year at 6.8%. Colombia’s central bank raised its policy rate to 12% in June and held it steady in July. Grupo Aval’s economic team expects the rate could rise to 12.5% in coming months. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA is a leading Colombian financial holding company that offers a diversified range of banking and financial services across Latin America. As one of the largest financial conglomerates in Colombia, Grupo Aval provides commercial and retail banking, leasing, insurance brokerage, pension fund management and investment banking through its principal subsidiaries. Its core banking operations are conducted through a network of well-established institutions, including Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular and Banco AV Villas, which together serve individual consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises and large corporate clients. This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected]. The article "Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores Q2 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat. View MarketBeat's top stocks for August 2026.
TranscriptFY2026 Q22026-08-13FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 91 paragraphs
FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript
Welcome to Grupo Aval's second quarter 2026 consolidated results conference call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA, Grupo Aval, is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulation in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulation. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as holding company of the Aval Financial Conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures, such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report.
On November 27th, 2025, Banco de Bogotá's subsidiary, Multi Financial Holding, Inc, MFH, entered into a share purchase agreement with BAC International Corporation, BIC, a subsidiary of BAC Holding International Corp, for the disposal of 99.57% of the issued and outstanding shares of Multi Financial Group, Inc, MFG, the parent company of Multibank, Inc. On March 18th, 2026, after obtaining the required regulatory authorizations and fulfilling all agreed conditions precedent, the transaction was completed. For comparability purposes only, we have prepared and present supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information for the periods prior to 4Q 2025, which reflects the reclassification of the operations relating to MFH as non-current assets and liabilities held for sale in discontinued operations.
The supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information is not intended to represent and should not be considered indicative of the results of operations or financial position that would have been achieved had the transaction occurred on the dates assumed, nor is it intended to project our results of operations or financial position for any future period or date. The pro forma financial information is unaudited, and the completion of the external audit for the year ended December 31st, 2026, may result in adjustments to the unaudited pro forma financial information presented herein. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipate, believes, estimate, predicts, potential, or continue, or the negative of these and other comparable words.
Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates, and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update, or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide any updates or such material development prior to our next earnings report.
The financial statements of Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA, in accordance with Colombian regulations, must be filed with the market and with the Superintendency of Finance, with the opinion of an external auditor. At the time of this solicitation, this process is still ongoing. The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ms. María Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. María Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, you may begin.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2026 conference call. I am here with Diego Solano, our CFO, Camilo Pérez, Chief Economist of Banco de Bogotá, and Ernesto Gutiérrez de Piñeres, Chief Technology Officer. Before discussing our query results, I want to address the earthquake that took place in Colombia this week. On behalf of Grupo Aval, our thoughts are with everyone affected. Our priority has been the safety of our employees, our clients, and communities we touch. We took immediate action to leverage our transactional logistical capabilities to support emergency relief efforts. We enabled our network of over 2,700 ATMs, mobile banking platforms, and dale! to channel donations to the Colombian Red Cross and the Colombia Un Solo Corazón initiative. Through Sencia, a Corficolombiana investment, we also set up El Campín Stadium as a collection center for essential supplies.
Yesterday, we had more than 1,000 people there in the city. Regarding our operations in the areas most affected by the earthquake, we have temporary service interruptions in several service points to ensure the safety of our clients and employees. In addition, these regions were initially affected by widespread electricity and communication failures. Our operations and services have been progressively restored. Turning now to our corporate highlights. Our attributed net income reached COP 577 billion, up 17% compared to the second quarter of 2025, and the highest quality result since March 2022, reflecting the continuous strengthening of profitability. ROAE reached 12.7% for the quarter. The quarter was marked by solid loan and deposit growth and strong contributions from our investment portfolio, and further maintained stable asset quality and continued efficiency gains.
In addition, we continue to deploy strategic initiatives focused on deepening retail customer presence and strengthening our payments ecosystem. Through our alliance with Visa, we deliver unique customer experiences, reaching more than 750,000 participants in the brand activation activities launched during the FIFA World Cup 2026. In parallel, our bank has been working in QR-based instant payment collection solution for businesses, further enhancing our transaction banking offering and deposit franchise. As for the recent developments, on July 31st, Banco de Bogotá completed the transfer of the retail banking and supply abilities and contracts from Banco Itaú in Colombia.
The transaction has more than 250,000 retail banking customers and reinforces Banco de Bogotá's strategy to grow and strengthen its retail banking franchise, especially in the affluent segment. On June 19th, Grupo Aval Holding, Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, and Banco Popular contributed their investments in Corficolombiana to a special purpose vehicle.
Each entity retains its direct stake in Corfi. This transaction is primarily aimed at simplifying Corficolombiana ownership structure, consolidating the stake into a single jointly controlled vehicle within Grupo Aval. Diego will touch on this in more detail later on. We will begin this call discussing some key elements of our technology strategy, a key driver of Grupo Aval's transformation and future growth. Before passing the call on to Ernesto Gutiérrez, our Chief Technology Officer, I want to highlight this. At Grupo Aval, we are deploying a technology strategy to support faster innovation and more efficient operation and to improve our customers' experience. This strategy seeks to build advantages to compete in a more digital and connected financial system, shaped by data analytics and artificial intelligence, and to redirect operational CapEx to transformation investment aligned with best practices for the financial industry.
To achieve these results, we are working on four key techniques. First, improving our service platforms to allow us to better understand and serve our customers. Second, reengineering our digital core to accelerate our time to market. Third, migrating to a Grupo Aval cloud, a modern and resilient platform that will support this evolution by speeding up our adoption of new solutions, improving the resilience of our operational platform and capturing synergies across the group. Finally, strengthening our data platforms to improve real time decision making. I will turn the call over to Ernesto who will provide additional color on our technology strategy. Ernesto?
Thank you, María Lorena. Good morning, everyone. I would like to give you a brief update on the execution of our technology strategy, and more importantly, on how it's beginning to translate into growth, structural efficiency, and resilience across the Grupo Aval. As María Lorena has outlined, technology innovation, data, and artificial intelligence are key enablers of our long-term strategy. Our focus now is execution. We start from an important competitive advantage, our scale. Grupo Aval is a multi-entity financial group, and our technology strategy is designed to turn that scale into economic advantage by building shared capabilities that can be developed once and developed across the group. This is the foundation of our common digital core, a secure, scalable and offering architecture designed to operate increasingly in real time, connect with partners and ecosystem, and prepare the group for the opportunities created by open finance and open data.
We are executing this strategy across four main pillars. The first one is about efficiency. Knowledge and serving our customer better. About this system is creating a more integrated view of our customers across the group, allowing us to improve continually across channels, personalize interactions, and progressively increase our ability to offer certain products and services across our entities. The business objective is straightforward: higher conversion and stronger retention, and greater value for the customer. Artificial intelligence is becoming an important part of the business strategy. For example, in Nexa BPO company will take 30% of a personal installed flow to be handled through the AI-enabled solution. This should increase scalability and response capacity while maintaining the service quality and customer experience for our customers. At the same time, digital adoption continues to expand. Today, 67% of our customers already conduct transactions through the digital channels.
The second point is our digital course. When accelerating our digital business, we are building shared capabilities to design, launch, and scale digital products faster, while progressively reducing dependency on traditional core systems and making it easier to connect with external ecosystem and partners. Our new digital personal loan solution is on track to go live in the fourth quarter of the year. In parallel, we continue to advance our capabilities for credit cards and customer loans and retail banking transactional services. Together, these initiatives address a significant part of the financial needs of our retail customers. The value proposition is clear: shorter time to market and lower structural cost per product. Importantly, these are not capabilities designed for a single entity. They are being built to be reused and scaled across Grupo Aval. The third point is Delos, turning data into better decisions.
Delos is our management intelligence platform, and it serves as digital twin of our banking operations. Delos is already integrated nine business dimensions into a common management view. Through this integration with Augusta, our strategic platform, we are increasing our ability to understand relationships among customer products and companies across Grupo Aval. The objective is to move progressively from analyzing what happened to understanding what is happening and what may happen next. This will support better decisions in areas such as customer management, risk, capital allocation, and operational efficiency. The last point is Aurora. Aurora is our cloud platform strategy. Aurora is the platform through which we are modernizing the technology infrastructure for the group. This architecture combines public cloud capabilities, including AWS and Microsoft Azure, with private cloud capability development through our partnerships with IBM and Kyndryl.
The objective is to improve resilience, availability, scalability, and security, while structurally we are releasing our infrastructure obsolescence. Aurora also changed the economics of our infrastructure, moving progressively from a procuring capital-intensive technology invest toward a more flexible and management capability model. There is another important dimension to Aurora. The efficiency generated by Aurora will be reinvested to help fund the next stage of our technology transformation. This creates a virtuous cycle in which transformation generates savings, and those savings help to fund the further transformation. In that sense, Aurora is not only modernizing our infrastructure, it is also helping us build a more sustainable funding model for our broader technology agenda. Taken together, these four pillars are designed to deliver three fundamental outcomes. The first is growth.
Faster product launch, stronger digital capabilities, better customer knowledge, and greater ability to build relationships across the different entities of Grupo Aval. The second point is structural efficiency. We are redesigning the way that Grupo Aval operates through the more real-time processing, greater automation, increased use of artificial intelligence, shared platform, and lower levels of manual intervention. This is not a one-time cost reduction effort. It is about creating and structuring more efficient operational model for Grupo Aval. The third point is trust and resilience. Security, controls, data governance, and operational continuity remain embedded in the design of every capability that we build. In the financial services, true trust is a prerequisite for sustainable growth. All of this supported by a strong principle: capital discipline.
We are moving from a management technology as an inventory of products to prioritizing investments based on strategic contribution, expected returns, and value creation. In summary, Grupo Aval is moving from strategy to execution. We are scaling shared capabilities across the Grupo Aval, developing artificial intelligence into our real operation, accelerating our digital products roadmap, and using data to make better decisions. Importantly, we are doing this with a model in which technology increasingly generates efficiencies that help us in our own evolution. Technology is becoming a business capability from Grupo Aval, with the customers always in the center. Thank you.
Thank you, Ernesto. Let me walk you through the key macroeconomic developments of the quarter. The global environment remained challenging during the quarter. Oil prices peaked after ceasefire and the U.S.-Iran agreement in June. However, renewed tensions resurfaced in early July, showing that the situation remains fragile, weighing on global growth expectations for the year. In Colombia, economic activity continued to expand, although dependent on short-term factors. Consumption has remained relatively resilient, supported by remittances and employment. In contrast, investment continues to lag and needs a more certain environment. Recent indicators suggest some improvement relative to the start of the year, and we currently expect GDP growth of approximately 2.4% in 2026. Inflationary pressures increased during the quarter, with annual inflation reaching 6.0% in July, moving further off from the central bank's target. Markets have raised their expectation on this year inflation, putting pressure on the central bank decisions.
At the same time, the Colombian peso continues trending, supported by remittances inflows and a weaker U.S. dollar environment, helping mitigate import inflation pressures. Against this backdrop, Banco de la República raised its policy rate to 12% in June. However, at its most recent meeting in July, the board decided to keep rates unchanged. Even though further rate increases can be expected, this pause reflects prudent stance to assess the cumulative effects on the monetary tightening already in place and to evaluate incoming economic data. Looking forward, Colombia has significant opportunities to accelerate investment and productivity. Materializing this potential will require from the new administration improvement in physical and regulatory safety, as well as a firm commitment reflected in public policies to create an environment that promotes long-term investment.
In addition, restoring a credible path to reverse fiscal deficit trend will be essential to building confidence required to support sustainable growth in Colombia. With that, I will turn the call over to Camilo, who will provide additional color on our economic outlook. Camilo?
Thank you, María Lorena. Good morning. The Colombian economy registered growth of 2.3% in the second quarter of the year, marking its highest expansion in almost a year. While positive, growth was supported by temporary factors. The first of these is the increased household spending associated with the FIFA World Cup 2026. This event boosted economic activities through greater dynamism in commerce, leisure, entertainment, restaurants, and sports betting. Likewise, the public administration continues to contribute to economic activity due to increase in personnel at the national registry for the local elections, as well as higher budget execution, which reached a four-year high, significantly contributing to the growth of national activity. Another sector that performed well was utilities, driven by the increasing energy demand from households due to intensive use of air conditioning and refrigeration systems, given the high temperatures experienced in several cities across the country.
In contrast to these sectors, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction continued to exhibit weak or negative results. In agriculture, the weather and high input costs were detrimental. In construction, high-interest rates and the slow execution of major infrastructure projects weakened the sector. In mining, the decline is structural, and in manufacturing, the appreciation of the peso has harmed the sector's competitiveness. This suggests that the economic recovery maintains a K-shaped dynamic, in which some sectors show improvement while others continue to lag. For the remainder of the year, tighter local financial conditions, the diminishing effects of the transitory factors, the impact of the war in the Middle East, the arrival of El Niño, and the expected fiscal adjustment will lead the Colombian economy to grow 2.4% in 2026.
Turning to prices, inflation jumped from 5.6% at the end of March to 6% in July 2026, near its highest level since July 2024. Services dependent on the minimum wage saw a variant exceeding 9%, while rents maintained inflation close to 5%, more evidence of the indexation problem. Meanwhile, inflation in regulated goods accelerated due to higher fuel prices resulting from the war in the Middle East. Additionally, energy and gas prices increased as a result of the greater use of thermal power plants for electricity generation as a precaution against the arrival of El Niño. In the food sector, fertilizer prices and weather conditions also exerted upward pressure. For the remainder of the year, the upward trending inflation is expected to continue given the intensification of the aforementioned factors, ending the year at 6.8%.
On the fiscal front, the government finalized the TRS operation in May and updated the medium-term fiscal framework in June. With the closure of the TRS and other debt management operations during the quarter, the government carried out a significant swap of external debt for domestic debt. As of June, the share of external debt in total debt was 23%, the lowest in the 21st century, also supported by the appreciation of the peso. Regarding the fiscal framework, while the revenue forecast for 2026 is reasonable, the expenditure forecast is not. Higher spending pressures are expected, leading to a total fiscal deficit of 6.7% of GDP in 2026, above the target of 5.3% of GDP.
Given this outlook, with inflation still high and inflation expectations too, and a still vulnerable fiscal situation, the Central Bank of Colombia raised its policy rate by 75 basis points in June and left it unchanged at 12% in July. The central bank is likely to continue raising rates, taking the policy rate to a peak of 12.50% in the coming months, as it seeks to bring inflation back to our target and after seven consecutive years of missing it. With a scenario of higher domestic interest rates and a favorable reading of the elections, the local exchange rate extended its downward trend, reaching its lowest level since 2019 at around COP 3,100 per dollar. The potential misalignment of the exchange rate led the central bank to implement a program to accumulate international reserves for up to $4 billion, restarting that of two options of put options.
Following the election results, the country's premium fell to 140 basis points, near its lowest level since 2021. This lower premium reflects investor expectations that under the new government, Colombia will implement macroprudential measures, contain the fiscal deficit, oversee negotiated minimum wage increases, and promote investment incentives, among other policies that foster a better business environment and strengthen the local currency. However, the passage of reforms in a highly divided Congress will be crucial for the fulfillment of these expectations and their corresponding impact on the economy and local assets. Thank you. Back to you, María Lorena.
Thank you, Camilo. Turning now to our financial results. Loan growth continued to accelerate during the quarter, with both loans and deposits increasing 2.1% over the quarter to COP 198 million and deposits COP 222 million respectively. Our total money deposit growth has outpaced loan growth. This incorporates a strong growth of our retained deposit base. Net interest margin improved to 5.5% in the quarter. This improvement incorporates a strong contribution of needs from our investment portfolios that are benefiting from a particularly strong capital market cycle. In addition, we delivered a 21 basis point improvement on loans in the banking segment. Our credit quality was substantially stable, with cost of risk well controlled at 1.9%, and we maintain a disciplined cost structure with cost to assets at 2.7%. Regarding our non-banking subsidiaries, Porvenir had a particularly strong quarter, benefiting from the strong fixed income and equity market.
Corficolombiana also contributed good results with energy and infrastructure revenues up on a last 12-month base. Now, I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give you the details in our results. Diego?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will start on pages eight and nine with a few charts showing the growth rate and quality of our loan portfolio relative to the rest of the Colombian banking system based on unconsolidated figures under Colombian IFRS as published by the Superintendencia Financiera. Starting on page eight, for the 12-month period ended in May 2026, our last loan growth accelerated, driven especially by commercial loans, while growth of the rest of the banking system was primarily driven by consumer loans, in particular personal loans and credit cards. We continue to prioritize growth in local currency commercial loans and within consumer in personal loans and credit cards. Our market share in commercial loans increased 32 basis points over the year and 1219 basis points over the quarter.
Our market share of peso-denominated commercial loans increased 57 basis points year-on-year to 26.2% and decreased 6 basis points over the quarter. Market share of dollar-denominated commercial loans fell 166 basis points over the quarter to 35.1%, reflecting Banco de Bogotá's relocation of part of its foreign currency loan portfolio from its Colombian book to the Banco de Bogotá (Panamá), SA book. Consumer loans, we continue diversifying our portfolio towards higher-yielding loans, moderating our overweight in payroll lending. We gained 189 basis points of share in personal loans year-on-year and 68 basis points over the quarter, raising our market share to 22.6%. Looking ahead, dale! consumer business acquisition will help us close our remaining gap to market weight in personal loans. We maintain our leadership position in payroll lending with 41.1% market share.
However, we reduced our share in payroll loans by 62 basis points from the quarter, accumulating 222 basis points year-on-year.
Overall, our market share for consumer loans closed at 28.4%, a 30 basis points decrease over the quarter and 125 basis points year-on-year, given the underweight in personal loans, the main driver of consumer lending growth. Finally, we continued gaining market share in mortgages with 14 basis points increase over the quarter and 69 basis points year-on-year, reaching 17.6%. As a result of the above mentioned, we closed the quarter with a market share in total loans of 24.8%, 18 basis points up over the quarter, and 16 basis points lower than a year earlier. On page nine, loan quality trends remain positive across all categories, both for Aval and for the system alike, with the Aval banks continuing to show stronger portfolio quality in most categories. I will now move to the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS, starting on page 10.
Assets grew 3.9% over the quarter and 4.5% over the year to COP 351 trillion. Fixed income investments that at the end of the quarter accounted for 17.2% of our total assets increased 11.6% over the quarter and 20.5% over 12 months, driven by higher liquidity. At the bottom of the page, gross loans grew 2.1% during the quarter, accumulating 7.6% year-on-year. Our peso-denominated loans increased 2.4% quarter-on-quarter and 9.3% year-on-year. Commercial loans grew 2.4% over the quarter and 7.7% year-on-year. Peso-denominated commercial loans grew 3% quarter-on-quarter and 10.9% year-on-year, while US dollar-denominated commercial loans grew 5.2% quarter-on-quarter in dollar terms and 7.7% year-on-year.
Following the MFG divestiture in March, dollar-denominated loans account for 7.9% of our loan portfolio and come primarily from Banco de Bogotá's U.S. agencies, our trade finance business, and the offshore subsidiaries of Banco de Bogotá and Banco de Occidente. These loans were affected by the appreciation of the Colombian peso of 6% over the quarter and 15.5% over 12 months. Consumer loans grew 1.1% during the quarter and 4.7% year-on-year. Payrolls that account for 53% of our consumer loans contracted 1.2% both over the quarter and over the year. Personal loans that account for 28% of our consumer loans grew 4.5% during the quarter and 18.2% over the year. Credit cards that account for 12% of our consumer loans grew 4.5% quarter-on-quarter and 6.5% year-on-year.
Automobile loans that account for 7% of our consumer loans increased 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3% year-on-year. Finally, mortgages grew 2.9% over the quarter and 15.7% year-on-year. On page 11, we present funding and deposit evolution. Total funding reached COP 292 trillion, growing 3.8% over the quarter and 11% year-on-year. Total deposits that account for around three-fourths of our funding needs reached COP 221 trillion, growing 2.1% over the quarter and 11.5% year-on-year. Our deposits to net loans ratio increased to 117%, a healthy position and a protection for potential volatility associated with the presidential election. On page 12, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our accrued total shareholders' equity, and the capital and equity ratio of our banks.
Our total equity increased 3.4% over the quarter and 3.3% year-on-year, while our accrued total equity increased 4.4% over the quarter and 4.6% year-on-year. During the quarter, Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, and Grupo Aval Holding concluded their stakes in Corficolombiana through an SPE in exchange for shares of such SPE while maintaining their indirect shares in Corficolombiana. This change implies measuring the new investment in each entity, impacting the solvency ratios of Banco de Bogotá and with a minor effect in Banco de Occidente. Banco de Bogotá ended the quarter at a solid 14.9% of total solvency and 14% of tier 1 capitalization. In addition, AV Villas just issued COP 100 billion coordinated bond during the quarter, strengthening its tier 2 capital. Net income and the improvement in OCI from fixed income added as well to our solvency ratios.
On page 13, we present our net interest income, which reached COP 3.6 trillion in second quarter 2026, up 68.4% from first quarter 2026, and 43.1% from second quarter 2025. Results benefited from a solid trading investment income driven by exceptionally strong capital markets. A portion of the quarterly trading investment income was offset by hedging and derivatives, which I will discuss later when covering other income. As anticipated, NIM and loans for the banking segment expanded, driven by the repricing of commercial floating loans. At the consolidated level, NIM and loans remain stable as the higher rate environment continues to weigh on Corficolombiana's contribution, and in fact, we expect to ease as rates normalize. Total NIM increased 217 basis points to 5.51% quarter-on-quarter and 130 basis points year-on-year.
Our consolidated NIM and loans reached 4.41% during the quarter, stable relative to 4.4% during the first quarter of 2026. Our consolidated NIM investments increased to 8.68%, up from a quarter percent in first quarter 2026, driven by a significant improvement in the test market performance connected to the June presidential election. Net of derivatives, net NIM investments would have been 5.1%, and total NIM would have been 4.6%. Focusing on our banking segment, the total NIM of our banking segment expanded 192 basis points from the quarter to 6.07%, due to the same dynamics that affected our consolidated NIM. NIM on loans was 5.19%, increasing 21 basis points quarter-on-quarter. This incorporates a 44 basis points quarter-on-quarter increase in NIM on commercial loans to 4.3%, and 9 basis points quarter-on-quarter decrease in NIM on retail loans to 6.39%.
On page 14, we present yield and cost of funds. Interest rate dynamics of our loans and of our funding are driven by the movements in average benchmark rates in Colombia. The average central bank intervention rate increased approximately 135 basis points during second quarter 2026, while our consolidated cost of deposits increased 59 basis points to 7.34%, reflecting a lower pass-through. Our total cost of funds increased 75 basis points to 7.75%. These quarter results reflect the combined benefits of disciplined repricing and the strong high yield on investments. Our banking segment spread between yield on loans and cost of deposits reached 5.68%, its highest level in 10 quarters, as our lower deposit pass-through translated directly into margin expansion. On pages 15 through 17, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios.
On page 15, overall loan quality trends were materially stable during the quarter, with 90-day PDLs across commercial, consumer, and mortgage loans holding at levels consistent with their historical levels. 90-day PDLs were 3.13%, stable relative to the last quarter and 44 basis points improvement relative to 12 months before. 30-day PDLs were 4.41%, a 10 basis points increase over three months and 45 basis points improvement over 12 months. New 90-day PDLs in the quarter were COP 1.11 trillion, up from COP 1.08 trillion a year earlier, and COP 766 billion during first quarter 2026. Coverage on 90-day PDLs was 137%, in line with the first quarter 2026. Commercial 30-day PDLs were 3.86%, stable over three months and improving 50 basis points over the year. 90-day PDLs were 3.26%, a 7 basis points decrease over the quarter and 60 basis points over the year.
We reported an annual 52 basis points decrease in consumer 30-day PDLs to 4.71%, while 90-day PDLs improved 30 basis points to 2.68%. Mortgages, 30-day PDLs and 90-day PDLs improved 13 basis points and 10 basis points year-on-year. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs was 0.65x. On page 16, the share of our loan portfolio classified as Stage 1 reached 90% of the total portfolio, up from 89.1% in second quarter 2025, and slightly lower than the 90.3% reported a quarter earlier, reflecting stabilization of our loan portfolio profile. The allowance for Stage 2 and 3 as a percentage of loans classified as Stage 2 and 3 reached 33.3% for all loans, decreasing 47 basis points during the quarter. On page 17, our net cost of risk was 1.9%, eight basis points higher quarter-on-quarter, and 5 basis points year-on-year.
The gross cost of risk was 2.2% in second quarter 2026, increasing 12 basis points quarter-on-quarter and decreasing 18 basis points year-on-year. The net cost of risk for consumer loans was stable at 4.1%. Meanwhile, the net cost of risk for commercial loans was 0.9%, up from 0.7% during first quarter 2026. On page 18, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income grew 4.1% year-on-year and increased 3.7% quarter-on-quarter. Net fee income increased 3.3% year-on-year and decreased 5.2% quarter-on-quarter. Gross fee income was driven by an annual 1.7% increase in banking fees, 8.1% in pension fees, and 9.8% in trust fees. Income from the non-financial sector was around 1.14x that reported during second quarter 2025 due to a positive impact of higher inflation and consumption revenues.
Energy and gas contributed COP 281 billion, roughly in line with prior periods. As mentioned earlier, the year-on-year variation in other operating income mainly reflects lower derivative incomes. COP 962 billion of this quarter's variation is related, is connected to derivatives to hedge the income from investments that I mentioned when discussing reference to market. On page 19, we present some efficiency ratios. Total other expenses reached COP 2.36 billion during the second quarter of 2026, increasing 7.4% year-on-year and decreasing 8.1% quarter-on-quarter. Quarterly variation is largely explained by COP 312 billion equity tax reported under general and administrative expenses from the first quarter of the year. Total other expenses, including equity taxes, increased 4.6% quarterly, driven by other tax expense.
Personnel expenses increased 4.6% year-on-year to COP 839 billion, impacted by the 23% minimum wage increase on part of our workforce. Cost to assets for the quarter was 2.7%, slightly higher than year-on-year. Our quarterly cost to income improved to 49.3%, mainly due to the increase in net trading income. Finally, on page 21, we present our net income and profitability ratios. Actual net income was COP 577 billion or COP 24.2 per share, our highest level for a quarter in four years. Our return on average assets and our return on average equity for the quarter reached 1.1% and 12.7% respective. I'll now summarize our general guidance for 2026. We expect loan growth in the 10.5% area of commercial loans growing the 8% area and retail loans growing in the 14% area, including the contribution of the Itaú retail business transaction.
We expect our consolidated NIM in the 4.2% area with NIM on loans in the 4.4% area. The NIM of our banking segment in the 4.9% area with NIM on loans in the 5.2% area. Our cost of risk net of recoveries in the 1.9% area. Our cost to assets in the 2.9% area. Income from the non-financial sector of 1.3x that for 2025. The income ratio in the 22% area. Finally, we expect our 2026 return on average equity to be in the 9.25% area. Back to María Lorena.
Thank you, Diego. Before moving into questions and answers, I would like to leave you with a final thought. We continue to navigate a demanding environment with global uncertainty, elevated inflation, and pressures for higher interest rates. As Colombia enters a new political cycle, the focus will increasingly shift toward restoring confidence, encouraging investment, and addressing the country's fiscal challenges to support strong long-term growth. Energy security is one of the key challenges ahead. Colombia has moved from having one of the most reliable energy systems in the region to facing increasing pressures on both electricity and natural gas supply. Delays in strategic generation and transmission projects, together with declining domestic gas production, highlight the need to accelerate investment and execution. Ensuring a reliable energy supply will be critical not only for households and businesses but also for competitiveness, investment, and economic growth.
Restoring physical and regulatory safety and accelerating the pace of infrastructure projects and of construction to generate future growth, recovering the health system effectiveness are some of the fronts demanding decisive public policy actions. Despite the macro regulatory challenges that we have faced, this quarter reaffirms the resilience of Grupo Aval and our ability to execute long-term strategic priorities. Our diversified businesses discipline, risk management, and a strong balance sheet continue to provide stability across economic cycles. Meanwhile, we continue to execute key initiatives such as the successful integration of the former Itaú retail operations into Banco de Bogotá that will strengthen our retail banking platform and positioning the group for future growth. The results achieved during the first half of the year reinforce our confidence in targets for 2026.
While the environment will remain challenging with high funding rates and market volatility, during the remainder of the year, we remain on track to deliver our ROAE in the 9.25% area for the full year, as Diego mentioned. We remain confident in our strategy, our execution capabilities, and our ability to continue creating long-term value for shareholders while contributing to the development of Colombia's economy. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star then one a second time. If you are using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star one. Our first question will come from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank. Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. Congrats on the results. Two questions here. The first one is a bit more contextual. Wanted to get your views on what we should expect, what you're expecting as the base case in terms of tax rate for 2027. Just wondering if you perceive maybe a lower risk in terms of banks being included for higher tax rates in the tax reform? A second one is a bit more structural. I think your strategy is definitely paying off in terms of the diversification of profitability. You have a very strong quarter in terms of the investment portfolio.
Just wanted to check with you if going forward with the recent structures, the recent changes, and also the new government, you might think that also Corficolombiana and Porvenir could start really providing some upside risks here for the contribution of profits? Thank you.
Let me maybe to answer the first part of the question. I think, and we hope that we are not having more taxes, and President Abelardo de la Espriella announced that he's going to, for example, the equity tax, maybe we are not going to have. This is difficult for me that maybe he can leave some taxes, but we hope that we don't have an increase. We are a little worried with the local taxes. Because our mayor here in Bogotá presented like a law, like a project to the Bogotá council, that is like a congress here in Colombia, but for the city. It increases one of the local tax, that is ICA, 30%. So for us, because this is a tax on income. So for us and for the financial sector in general, we are a little concerned about that.
And before Diego talk about the portfolio, let me mention that we are going to start the construction of the new stadium, Corficolombiana. This, I think, on maybe September, October, we will start to. It is important because, as you know, when Corficolombiana start to build, we can generate income. The other stadium is working. So we have both. We are building, but we have the business of the actual cities. So Diego?
Yeah. Adding to what María Lorena said, also to give you some context, you might have seen that we were conservative on our guidance on customer income, and one of the reasons we were conservative on that is we are seeing a heavy burden on taxes adding to our operational expenses. Regarding Corficolombiana and Porvenir, we basically grow based on the country's growth. In the case of Corficolombiana, we grow because of the country investing and developing many of the projects that have been delayed or were canceled during the previous administration. Therefore, yes, we are very positive on the new administration and Corficolombiana. On the Porvenir side, we are going to get clarity on the pension reform. That is something we have already started to see moving in Congress, and a positive performance of the market, as well, will help our portfolios.
You have to remember that in the numbers of the central bank, one of the numbers that has a lot of weight is the risk of a fiscal deficit moving into the future. We expect that the new administration will move in the right direction to give some confidence that this will have some relief. In that sense, we see an upside from the central bank rate as we have clarity from public policy on what is going to happen with fiscal deficit.
Additional to the fiscal deficit, for me, it is so important that the government in this month organized the projects and everything with the energy. Because we are going to have the El Niño phenomenonphenomenon. I do not know how to say that. Phenomenon is the name. Very strong. So we need to start to have new projects. Otherwise, we are going to have more inflation and problems in the economy.
No, super clear, María Lorena. If I may, something very interesting that you commented was, do you have a sensitivity as to if this local tax passes in Bogotá, how much would it impact the effective tax rate that you pay?
I will tell you for the financial sector because Asobancaria did an exercise, it will be like COP 500,000 million more.
We will pass that on our public call once we have clarity there.
We know that.
Perfect.
They are going to start to discuss the project. As you know, with the problems that Colombia may be, the project stop without discussing there. It's just to mention, but it's not a concern right now. We are working on numbers and everything to it, but
No, perfect. Great color. We'll keep an eye on it. I appreciate the comments. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question will come from the line of Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, Maria Lorena, Diego. I have a question regarding the guidance of ROAE. If I understood correctly from Diego, I think I heard 9.5%, maybe ROAE. That is maybe a touch above?
9.25%.
9.25%.
9.25%, Yuri. We're basically maintaining our guidance.
You're maintaining the guidance. So 9.0%, 9.25% ROAE guidance, right? 9.25%. So why is this lower, Diego, than what you are running now? I think in the first half, you have closer to 10% ROAE. I understand that this quarter you had some gains on securities. Maybe you are not considering these ahead, but what do you see as ahead for the second half? Because if this is 9.25%, this indicates that the ROAE for the second half being lower than the ROAEs of the first half, and you had the wealth tax in the first quarter, right? I don't know if these are new provisions, maybe this Colombia retail, I don't know, Bogotá higher taxes. I don't know, it's all Colombia consolidation. What is driving this ROAE? Thank you.
Yeah. There's a few reasons, Yuri, and you're right, we're being cautious here because we have high expectations. We're actually very positive here, thinking in long term. We're cautious on what's going to happen short term. Obviously, on long term, this does represent what we see in the changes in administration and changes in the monetary cycle as a positive that should increase substantially our view that we had in the past of what we can reach over the next three to five years. However, short term, there's a few headwinds we have to be careful about. Number one, you mentioned it, we had an extraordinary first half on the fixed income side, as I highlighted. Part of that, it has an offset in derivatives because it's part of our trading with our customers and also our risk positions in our portfolios.
We are not building in strong numbers for the second half. I didn't mention it in the guidance, but it's simply that we're looking into something around 2% NIM on investments to make the numbers work for the second half. We will have the cumulative effect of all the raises from the central bank. Even though we had a pause, market consensus and as you heard our call, points to perhaps another 50 basis points increase in rates. On the cost of risk side, we don't have numbers nor expect anything substantial, but we're being careful of what the effects of the earthquake might be during the quarter. In general, I would say we prefer to be on the conservative side.
There is a potential to become much more constructive as data coming in and also giving a chance for the new administration to move a lot of the things that they mentioned during the campaign into actual policy that will be the booster for the growth.
Oh, super clear, Diego. If I may, a second one, just on asset quality. You already mentioned on your presentation, but when we go to the 30 days new past due formation, right? So basically, the new increase of the balances. There was an increase, right? Also in the 90 days, but I think 90 days, the previous quarter was too low, but 30 days caught my attention here. We saw some worsening on consumer loans, on mortgage. You have the earthquake, you have El Niño. So what is your best guess on the outlook for asset quality here? I know you have a 1.9% guidance, but going ahead, are you concerned on asset quality in Colombia? What should we expect?
Short answer, we are not concerned. However, there might be some spikes in the road. The way to think about new loan formation is you have to look through the cycle. It is a spiky movement, but this is in line with numbers we've seen in the past. I also mentioned another data point that is the Stages 2 and 3 are behaving well. We obviously are being very careful with some sectors that are suffering with the exchange rate. So those are kind of the downside potential that you might see there. The lower exchange rate plus the earthquake are some things to look into. But the short answer is, we see stability in the numbers. We see, I would say a proper performance of the economy as a whole.
Perfect. No, thank you.
Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Our next question will come from the line of Daniel Mora with Credicorp Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, and thank you for the presentation. I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding margins, specifically the NIM without trading income. Trading like the one we observed in the second quarter will not be sustainable while interest expenses rise faster than interest income at a consolidated basis. I would like to understand in a context of high interest rates for longer, are you worried about margin pressures? As it seems that the expansion in the banking segment is offset by the other segments of Grupo Aval. That would be my first question.
Okay. Well, as I went through my answer to Yuri, a moment ago, we are being careful about the implications of further exchange interest rate hike. However, at this point in the cycle, there is a higher potential if you are thinking medium-term reduction in rates than further increasing rates once we finish this event. So that is why we are positive medium and longer term, but cautious for the remaining quarters of this year. As you pointed out, yes, we guided or we mentioned that without the effect of derivatives, our NIM would have been 4.6% and our NIM investment is 5.5%. So a substantial portion of what you saw on the NIM line as an offset on the derivatives line.
Once again, as I mentioned to Yuri, we are building in a NIM investments of 2% into our figures. However, on the NIM and loans, we are seeing our strategy really paying out.
We are being able to reprice our loans. We see the liquidity environment favorable to have a lower pass-through of what the central bank is doing. So in general, we feel closer to the end of the cycle. However, our guidance does build in a second half of the year that could have some pressures coming from the remaining increases in interest rates from the central bank.
Perfect. Thank you so much, Diego. My second question is regarding loan growth. What are the reasons behind the recent performance of the loan growth in the consumer segment? After a couple of years gaining market share and growing above the industry, now the industry seems to accelerate strongly. I would like to understand what is the reason behind this, or do you expect to continue and resume the growing in consumer loans and gain market share again despite all the operational transaction with Itaú?
Yeah, I think that's a great question because it does touch on what our strategy looks like. Part of what is going on is we've been historically widely overweighted on the payroll lending side, and we've been underweighted on the credit card and personal loan side. What we're seeing in this cycle is personal loans and credit cards growing much faster, and we are indeed growing at a fast pace. However, given that we're underweighted there, those competitors that are overweighted on those products are seeing a lot of growth. Strategically, we are reducing the way of the payrolls in our overall portfolio. That has many reasons. The two main reasons are, one, we are reducing sensitivity to interest rates that we suffered during the past cycle.
As you might have seen, if you think we are looking at interest rates at levels that are close to what we saw at the peak of the last cycle, not there, but close to those, and we are not suffering in the same manner as we did before. So we've been restructuring our portfolio to reduce interest rate sensitivity. On the other side, we see also an opportunity to improve our average interest rate, our NIM, in that process, and we see room to gain space. Part of the rationale of the Itaú transaction is precisely speeding up that process. In order of magnitude, the Itaú transaction could be gaining us a couple of years of growth and precisely in the segments that we wanted to grow.
So, that's the reason why our growth has been lower, is we are concentrated in payroll loans, and strategically we're reducing our share there, and we're not as exposed to the high-growth products where we are gaining share as well, as I mentioned in the call.
Perfect. Thank you.
I understand no more questions. No more questions, no?
No further questions.
Thank you for being with us and for the interesting questions, and see you in next conference call, results call. Have a good day. Bye.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-05-14Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges ...
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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Net Income: 336 billion Colombian pesos, a decrease of 2.3% compared to Q1 2025. Equity Tax Impact: 312 billion Colombian pesos in operating expenses, reducing ROAE by approximately 457 basis points. Gross Loans: 193.6 trillion Colombian pesos, increasing 6% compared to 2025. Deposits: 216.8 trillion Colombian pesos, increasing 11.7% over the last 12 months. Assets Under Management: 206.5 trillion pesos, with a 4.2% growth in the quarter. Consumer Portfolio Growth: Expected 3.3 trillion pesos from Itau's personal banking business acquisition. Mortgage Lending: 3.2 trillion pesos added, positioning Banco de Bogota with a 12.8% market share. Personal Deposits Growth: Expected to grow by 4.1 trillion pesos, reaching a 9.3% market share. Net Interest Income: 2.2 billion pesos in Q1 2026, increasing 14.3% compared to Q4 2025. Net Cost of Risk: 1.8%, increasing 6 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Return on Average Equity (ROAE): 7.4%, would have been 12% excluding equity tax impact. Return on Average Assets (ROAA): 0.9%, would have been 1.2% excluding equity tax impact. Loan Portfolio Quality: 90-day PDLs at 3.38%, improving 16 basis points from the last quarter. Operating Expenses: 2,565 billion pesos in Q1 2026, increasing 20.3% year-on-year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 1 Warning Sign with AVAL. Is AVAL fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: May 13, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) completed the sale of 99.57% of Multi Financial Group Inc., strengthening its capital position. The company launched a 2026-2031 corporate strategy focusing on relevance, opportunities, and impact, aiming to enhance market relevance and operational efficiency. Banco de Bogota's acquisition of Itau's personal banking business is expected to significantly boost consumer portfolio growth and market share in the Colombian housing market. Aval's asset management entity, Aval Fiduciaria, successfully integrated with PHP198 trillion in assets under management, showcasing strong market leadership. GoPayments, Aval's payment platform, achieved critical regulatory milestones and is poised for significant revenue opportunities with its interoperable payment solutions. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S…Read full documentShow less
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Net Income: 336 billion Colombian pesos, a decrease of 2.3% compared to Q1 2025. Equity Tax Impact: 312 billion Colombian pesos in operating expenses, reducing ROAE by approximately 457 basis points. Gross Loans: 193.6 trillion Colombian pesos, increasing 6% compared to 2025. Deposits: 216.8 trillion Colombian pesos, increasing 11.7% over the last 12 months. Assets Under Management: 206.5 trillion pesos, with a 4.2% growth in the quarter. Consumer Portfolio Growth: Expected 3.3 trillion pesos from Itau's personal banking business acquisition. Mortgage Lending: 3.2 trillion pesos added, positioning Banco de Bogota with a 12.8% market share. Personal Deposits Growth: Expected to grow by 4.1 trillion pesos, reaching a 9.3% market share. Net Interest Income: 2.2 billion pesos in Q1 2026, increasing 14.3% compared to Q4 2025. Net Cost of Risk: 1.8%, increasing 6 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Return on Average Equity (ROAE): 7.4%, would have been 12% excluding equity tax impact. Return on Average Assets (ROAA): 0.9%, would have been 1.2% excluding equity tax impact. Loan Portfolio Quality: 90-day PDLs at 3.38%, improving 16 basis points from the last quarter. Operating Expenses: 2,565 billion pesos in Q1 2026, increasing 20.3% year-on-year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 1 Warning Sign with AVAL. Is AVAL fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: May 13, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) completed the sale of 99.57% of Multi Financial Group Inc., strengthening its capital position. The company launched a 2026-2031 corporate strategy focusing on relevance, opportunities, and impact, aiming to enhance market relevance and operational efficiency. Banco de Bogota's acquisition of Itau's personal banking business is expected to significantly boost consumer portfolio growth and market share in the Colombian housing market. Aval's asset management entity, Aval Fiduciaria, successfully integrated with PHP198 trillion in assets under management, showcasing strong market leadership. GoPayments, Aval's payment platform, achieved critical regulatory milestones and is poised for significant revenue opportunities with its interoperable payment solutions. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) reported a 2.3% decrease in net income compared to the first quarter of 2025. The equity tax imposed a significant financial burden, reducing the quarter's ROAE by approximately 457 basis points. Funding cost pressures and the impact of the equity tax were major headwinds for the company. The Colombian economy is facing challenges such as decelerating GDP growth, rising inflation, and political uncertainties, impacting business operations. The company's net interest margin (NIM) faced compression due to a mismatch in asset and liability repricing, with further central bank actions expected to add pressure. Q: Can you clarify the guidance on the group's NIM for loans for the year? Is it expected to be at 4.4%, which is the level you finished this quarter? A: Yes, the expected NIM for loans is 4.4%. Throughout the year, you will see volatility due to the repricing mismatch between assets and liabilities. We expect further central bank actions, which might press the third quarter moving forward. Therefore, expect volatility in the repricing process, but the average for the year should be around 4.4%. Q: Regarding the pension reform, how will it affect your business, and do you think it should remain part of your portfolio in the long run? A: The pension reform balances out in terms of value. It reduces growth long-term but increases returns in the short-term. The contraction in growth will start being relevant after year 10. Port Venir is a strong part of our business, and we are focusing on asset management and fee-generating businesses alongside intermediation. Q: With the current economic uncertainty, is it wise to maintain the growth rate for consumer loans at 14%? A: The guidance includes the acquisition of Itau's consumer business, which will add to our personal loans and credit card business. Without this acquisition, growth would align more closely with nominal GDP growth. We are comfortable with this growth rate due to the strategic acquisition. Q: Can you provide more details on the expected OpEx savings and efficiency targets for 2026? A: We are working on multiple fronts, with expected savings running at $30 to $40 million per year by the end of this year. This is an initial phase, and we are also focusing on technology to further enhance efficiency. Q: What are your market share expectations for the retail segment in 2026, and how do you plan to improve contributions from Banco de Occidente and Banco AV Villas? A: We have been more successful with Banco Popular and Banco de Bogota in gaining retail deposits. We are working with all banks to ensure they contribute to our strategic objectives. We expect continued improvement in market share through strategic initiatives. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
TranscriptFY2026 Q12026-05-13FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 96 paragraphs
FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript
Welcome to Grupo Aval's first quarter 2026 consolidated results conference call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A., Grupo Aval, is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the U.S. SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulation in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulation. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia as holding company of the Aval financial conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS, as currently issued by the International Accounting Standards Board. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures, such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report.
On November 27th, 2025, Banco de Bogotá subsidiary, Multi Financial Holding, Inc., MFG, entered into a share purchase agreement with BAC International Corporation, BAC, a subsidiary of BAC Holding International Corp., for the disposal of 99.57% of the issued and outstanding shares of Multi Financial Group, Inc., MFG, the parent company of Multibank, Inc. On March 18th, 2026, after obtaining the required regulatory authorizations and fulfilling all agreed conditions precedent, the transaction was completed. For comparability purposes only, we have prepared and present supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information for the periods prior to 4Q 2025, which reflects the reclassification of the operations relating to MFG as non-current assets and liabilities held for sale and discontinued operations.
This supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information is not intended to represent and should not be considered indicative of the results of operations or financial position that would have been achieved had the transaction occurred on the dates assumed, nor is it intended to project our results of operations or financial position for any future period or date. The pro forma financial information is unaudited, and the completion of the external audit for the year ending December 31st, 2025, may result in adjustments to the unaudited pro forma financial information presented herein. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipate, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue, or the negative of these and other comparable words.
Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates, and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time. We expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update, or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report.
The financial statements of Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A., in accordance with Colombian regulations, must be filed with the market and with the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, with the opinion of an external auditor. At the time of this solicitation, this process is still ongoing. The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable, in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Maria Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, you may begin.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2026 conference call. I am here with Diego Solano, our CFO, Camilo Pérez, Chief Economist of Banco de Bogotá, and Jorge Castaño, Corporate Vice President of Financial Assets and e-Business. Before turning to our financial results, I would like to highlight two significant corporate developments of the quarter. First, on March 18, Banco de Bogotá completed the sale of 99.57% of MFG for $464 million, concentrating on its strategic focus and strengthening its capital position. Second, I am pleased to announce the appointment of Juan Carlos Echeverry as an incoming CEO of Banco de Bogotá, whose leadership we are confident will drive the next chapter of the bank's strategy.
Our Q1 net income reached COP 336 billion, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the first quarter of 2025. During this quarter, we recorded the equity tax, which amounted to COP 312 billion in operating expenses with a COP 210 billion impact in accruable net income, reducing the quarter's ROAE by approximately 467 basis points. Excluding this one-time effect, our underlying performance reflects improving trends across our businesses. The quarter was characterized by improving asset quality and cost of risk, a strong contribution from our non-financial sectors, and continued progress on operational efficiency. Funding cost pressures driven by the renewed tightening cycle and the impact of the equity tax were the main headwinds. This is also a strategically significant quarter for Grupo Aval.
We launched our 2026-2031 corporate strategy, a long-term framework that reflects our ambition to increase our relevance in the market where we operate to capture efficiencies and deploy technology in a structural and disciplined way, and to generate real impact for all of our stakeholders. Our strategy is organized around three core axes: relevance, opportunities, and impact, and materialized through 10 strategic pillars that will orient our evolution as a group over the next five years. Under the relevant axis, we are focused on strengthening our leadership position, deepening client centricity, and optimizing capital allocation. Under opportunities, we are accelerating efficiency and standardization, leading digital transformation, and turning data and artificial intelligence into competitive advantages. Under impact, we are committed to developing our talent, upholding the highest standards of corporate governance and risk management, and ensuring that our growth generates a positive impact for society and environment.
This strategy is a shared commitment across Grupo Aval to consolidate our position as Colombia's leading financial group. Now, I would like to invite Jorge Castaño, our Vicepresidente Corporativo, to share our advancements in other strategic matters. Jorge?
Thank you, Maria Lorena, and good morning, everyone. Turning to the first pillar that Maria Lorena mentioned, profitable business, the purchase and assumption transaction of Itaú's personal banking business by Banco de Bogotá marks a defining moment in Grupo Aval's retail banking strategy. Once fully executed, this transaction is expected to deliver COP 3.3 trillion in consumer portfolio growth, equivalent to 34 months of organic expansion, while adding COP 3.2 trillion in mortgage lending, positioning Banco de Bogotá in third place in the Colombian housing market with a 12.8% market share. On the deposit side, we expect personal deposits from individuals to grow by COP 4.1 trillion, representing around 20 months of accelerated organic growth and reaching a high of 9.3% market share.
On the client side, the bank will add around 277,000 customers, double its premium segment with 35,000 new high-value clients, and expand the preferred segment by 60%, adding 97,000 clients. Taken together, these results confirm that this transaction is just a growth initiative. It is a structural repositioning of Banco de Bogotá as a relevant force in Colombian retail banking, a unique opportunity to upgrade and relaunch its personal banking business, and a key step in its evaluation as universal bank and flagship entity of Grupo Aval. We are expecting to receive regulatory authorization from both the competition authority and the financial regulator within the coming weeks. Once clearance is obtained, Banco de Bogotá is fully prepared to execute a disciplined 90 days integration roadmap.
The operational groundwork covering system convergence, client migration protocols, and commercial team alignment is being developed in parallel with the regulatory process, ensuring zero lag between approval and execution. The Panama operations, comprising a $6.8 million loan portfolio and $140 million in deposits, will be incorporated in the consolidated balance sheet within the same window to enforce capital efficiency and cross-border synergies from day one. Now, turning to Aval Fiduciaria, our asset management entity. The company successfully completed the integration process on January 2, 2026, establishing a strong foundation with COP 198 trillion in assets under management, a platform of 33 collective investment funds, and 5,700 trust mandates. This milestone is further validated by the highest counterparty risk and portfolio management ratings given by Fitch Ratings and subsequently reaffirmed by S&P Global, reflecting the institution's commitment to operational excellence and investor confidence.
During the first quarter of 2026, Aval Fiduciaria reinforced its industry leadership. The company holds a 19% market share in commissions, with revenue growing by 12.5% to reach COP 151.4 billion. Assets under management grew 4.2% in the quarter to COP 206.5 trillion, with collective investment funds gained 149 basis points of market share to reach 22.3%, capturing more than half of total market growth. The client base expanded 4.7% in the quarter and 13% year-over-year. On profitability, the company posts a ROE of 33%, with net income of COP 22 billion for the first quarter. Operational efficiency improved materially as well, bringing the cost-to-income ratio to 65%, an improvement of close to 10 percentage points.
Looking ahead, Aval Fiduciaria continues to execute under its Destino 2031 strategy, highlighted by a collaboration with BlackRock through their Metaverse ETF solution, which gives Colombian retail investors access to balanced and global ETF portfolios, alongside continued investment in digital channels to democratize access to its full product suite. Now let me turn to our payment initiative business, GOU Payments. The company continues to strengthen its position as Grupo Aval's interoperable payments and value-added service platform. During the period, GOU secured two critical regulatory milestones: certification from the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia and authorization from Banco de la República to operate with the Bre-B ecosystem. Commercial traction is already visible. Controlled pilots have engaged more than 120 users in an initial phase, designed to validate performance ahead of full rollout.
On the collection side, GOU is enabled to Bre-B by Aval Valor across its existing base of 22,000 active agreements in Aval Pay Center, while 635 corporate clients with specialized integrations are currently progressing through final development and implementation, representing a significant near-term revenue opportunity as interoperable collections accelerate across the ecosystem. Underpinning this growth is a proprietary technology platform built to the highest standards of security, resilience, and operational capacity, capable of delivering value-added products and services to both financial and non-financial institutions. Finally, we are strengthening both the organizational structure and the executive team, bringing in senior professionals with a proven track record and strong recognition across the fintech payments industry. This investment in talent and infrastructure is designed to ensure best-in-class product development and the most effective commercial rollout possible as GOU Payments moves toward full scale deployment.
Finally, turning to the efficiency segment, a central pillar of our 2026-2031 corporate strategy is the capture of efficiencies and synergies across the group through our shared service center, ACC. In procurement, we have already taken over processing Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, AV Villas, GOU Payments, and Aval Valor Compartido. During the second quarter, we will take over Banco Popular, Aval Fiduciaria, and Grupo Aval Holding, and we aim to close the year with Real Tali, Porvenir, and Corficolombiana and its subsidiaries. This center will operate on a controllable spending base of COP 1.4 trillion, and for 2026, we have a savings goal of COP 62 billion. Most of our contractual renegotiations are due in the fourth quarter, for which we project COP 32 billion in savings, equivalent to a 9% annual savings rate over the controllable spending base.
In technology, during the second quarter, we began implementing a unified cloud migration roadmap for Grupo Aval. This initiative will optimize our technology infrastructure, including data centers, and modernize the telecommunications network across the group. In property management, we have already taken over and stabilized over four banks and Corficolombiana. These centers manage a COP 720 billion portfolio of assets, with a target to raise the commercialization rate from 27% to 37% by year-end. In human talent, we manage payroll for 40,000 employees. In attraction and selection, we are managing an average of 750 monthly openings with an internal satisfaction score of 4.7 out of five. We are also tracking a reduction in average time to fill from 24 days to 22 days. Physical channels that BAC overseas has taken control of 4,110 properties across all four banks, establishing an automation program through the new work.
That concludes my segment. Across every pillar we discussed today, Grupo Aval is executing with discipline and building the foundation for sustainable, profitable growth. Back to you, Maria Lorena.
Thank you, Jorge. Now let me walk you through the key macroeconomic developments of the quarter. The global environment has grown more complex since our last call. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has introduced a new layer of uncertainty, especially in oil prices and global supply chains. These dynamics are moderating global growth prospects for 2026. On the domestic front, GDP growth decelerated to 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 3.4% in the third quarter as private consumption moderated, and investment further declined amid deteriorating investor confidence. Early 2026 data reaffirms these trends. According to DANE's economic activity indicators, the economy grew just 1.5% in the January-February period, driven almost entirely by the service sector. We expect a 2026 full-year GDP growth of approximately 2.4%. On inflation, prices pressure have increased.
Annual inflation reached 5.68% in April 2026, its highest reading since September 2024. We project inflation at 6.2% for 2026, with a gradual return towards the 4% range expected by 2028. The central bank raised the policy rate by cumulatively 200 basis points during the first quarter, above market expectations, and what was priced into the Issuer Default Rating, Issuer Default Rating. With these increases, the rate reached 11.25% at the end of March. In its most recent April meeting, against market expectations and with a tense relationship with the government, the central bank's board unanimously decided to maintain its intervention rate. This was the last rate decision meeting before the first and second presidential election rounds. As of March, the Colombian peso has strengthened nearly 13% over the past 12 months, supported by strong remittance inflows and a broadly weaker U.S. dollar, helping contain inflation on the import side.
Camilo will elaborate on our economic outlook. Camilo?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. Good morning to everyone. The Colombian economy registered growth slightly above 2% in the first quarter of the year, marking its slowest expansion rate in a year and a half as a result of the weakening of several key sectors. In particular, the performance of the agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction sectors largely explains the low growth. In the absence of investment, private consumption and public spending have consolidated as the driving forces of the Colombian economy. For households, in a scenario of double-digit wage growth and lower inflation for goods than for services, families have maintained their spending levels on durable goods, with some sectors of industry and commerce being the biggest beneficiaries. Meanwhile, despite its moderation due to the rapid increase of prices, household consumption of services remains positive, favoring sectors such as lodging and food services, entertainment, and professional activities, among others.
Given that household spending is driven by income levels and not necessarily by borrowing, the financial sector continues to experience low growth. In fact, the continued weakness in investment due to the elevated uncertainty and higher interest rates poses challenges to the sector's performance. For the remainder of the year, amidst the impact of the war in the Middle East, tighter local financial conditions, a prolonged period of challenges for key sectors, and electoral uncertainty, the Colombian economy is expected to grow 2.4%. Turning to prices, inflation rebounded from 5.1% at the end of 2025 to 5.7% in April 2026 due to increased pressures in non-rental services, food, and goods.
For the remainder of the year, the upward trending inflation is expected to continue due to the lagged effect of the minimum wage increase, higher energy commodity prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, the arrival of El Niño, and the potential depreciation of the peso. Inflation is expected to end 2026 at around 6.2% before slowly moderating toward the target starting in 2027. On the fiscal front, a slight improvement is projected compared to the previous year. In 2026, for the first time in four years, the government is expected to meet its revenue target, thanks to the adjustment made to its financial plan. Regarding spending, the failure to approve the 2025 financing law will force the government to implement a COP 16 trillion expenditure cut if it cannot secure sufficient revenue to support it. However, this cut will be insufficient to improve public finances.
Thus, a primary fiscal deficit of 3.1% of GDP is estimated for 2026, lower than the 3.5% of GDP observed in 2025, representing a marginal improvement that does not alter the structural situation of the fiscal front. In fact, Standard & Poor's lowered Colombia's rating from BB to BB-, adjusting the outlook from negative to stable. Given the improvement in revenue and a containment of spending, the government has had sufficient liquidity to implement debt management operations, including dollar purchases to close the social return swap, repurchases and redemptions of domestic and external debt, as well as internal debt swaps. Thus, the performance of several local assets has been influenced by the government actions, particularly the exchange rate, public debt, and liquidity.
Against this backdrop, with inflation and inflation expectations rebounding and the fiscal situation remaining vulnerable, Banco de la República raised its interest rate by 200 basis points in the first quarter to 11.25%. In a clash with the government and amid a political uncertainty surrounding the elections, the central bank's board unanimously opted to pause the rate hiking cycle in April, though this doesn't imply the end of the adjustments. The central bank would have additional room to increase its interest rate between 50 basis points and 100 basis points, which would bring the benchmark rate to around 12.25% by the end of the year. With a scenario of higher domestic interest rates and a favorable result of the March legislative elections, which confirmed the absence of absolute majorities in Congress, the local exchange rate extended its downward trend, reaching its lowest level since 2021, near 3,500 COP per dollar.
However, this trend was contained by dollar purchases made by the government. Likewise, the uncertainties surrounding the presidential elections delayed the appreciation trend of the Colombian peso. But ultimately, the election results are increasingly becoming the main catalyst for the future of the country's economy and institutions. Also, high uncertainty persists just days before the first round. In a potential second round, the results appear quite close, so only after the election will the proposed macroeconomic scenario be validated. Back to you, Maria Lorena.
Thank you, Camilo. Turning to our financial results. Gross loans end March of at 193.6 trillion Colombian pesos, increasing 6% compared to 2025, and deposits reached 216.9 trillion Colombian pesos, increasing 11.7% over the last 12 months. The Central Bank's strong shift toward a more restrictive monetary policy and the higher yield on Colombians, soaring the up pressure on our consolidated funding costs. Our banks have closely followed, reviewing pricing adjustments and setting action plans to navigate this environment. We continue to make progress in growing our save funding base, which provides a more stable and cost-effective source of funding. Notably, the spread between yield on loans and cost of deposits in our banking segment held steady at five. Regarding our non-banking subsidiaries, Corficolombiana delivered strong results despite significant volatility in both the equity and the fixed income markets.
Corficolombiana had a strong quarter as well, boosted by seasonal dividends and high inflation expectations for 2026, which benefited revenues from the infrastructure sector. I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give you the details of our results. Diego?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will start on pages 9 and 10 with a few charts showing the growth rate and the quality of our loan portfolio relative to the rest of the Colombian banking system. For comparability reasons, these are unconsolidated figures under Colombian IFRS as published by the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia. Starting on page 9. Over the 12-month period ending on February 2026, Grupo Aval, as well as the rest of the banking system, continues to gain momentum. Growth for the system was primarily driven by large corporates, institutional, and government in the commercial loans and by unsecured products in the consumer loans segment. Our strategy remains consistent. We have deliberately prioritized portfolio quality and risk-adjusted returns over volume growth. We are focused on local currency commercial loans and personal loans and credit cards in the consumer segment.
We continue to be selective in corporate commercial loans given the aggressive pricing competition currently present. Our peso-denominated commercial loans market share increased by 10 basis points year-on-year to 26.3% and remained flat over the quarter. Regarding our dollar-denominated commercial loans, where we have historically been overweighted, we reduced our market share by 231 basis points to 36.8%. In addition, in peso terms, the balance of our dollar-denominated commercial loans were negatively impacted by an 8.9% appreciation of the Colombian peso over the year. As a result of the above, our market share for commercial loans fell 15 basis points over the year and increased three basis points over the quarter. In consumer loans, to reduce rate sensitivity, we continue diversifying our portfolio towards higher yielding and shorter-term loans, reducing our concentration in payroll lending.
We gained 147 basis points of share in personal loans year-on-year and 49 basis points over the quarter, raising our market share to 22%. The Itaú retail banking business acquisition will take us to market weight in personal loans. As part of the effort to reinvigorate our credit card business, where we lost 11 basis points over the quarter and 151 basis points year-on-year, we launched the Visa and Grupo Aval alliance. Itaú retail banking business acquisition will add two percentage points of share in credit cards to the 17.3% we held at the end of this quarter. We maintain a leadership position in payroll lending with 41.7% market share. We reduced our share in payroll lending 49 basis points over the quarter, accumulating 138 basis points year-on-year.
Overall, our market share for consumer loans closed at 28.7%, with a 17 basis points decrease over the quarter and 98 basis points decrease year-on-year. Moving on to mortgages, we continue to gain market share with 12 basis points increase over the quarter and 89 basis points year-on-year. As a result of the above mentioned, we close our market share in home loans at 25%, stable over the quarter and 30 basis points lower than a year earlier. On page 10, loan quality for both the system and the Aval banks continued to show an improvement across all loan categories. Our banks continue to exhibit better loan portfolio quality than the rest of the system in all categories. I will now move to the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS, starting on page 11.
Assets grew 2.4% over the year to COP 338 trillion and contracted 3.2% over the quarter, impacted by the divestiture of MFG. Excluding the MFG assets in quarter and annual close were 2.1% and 1.2% respectively. In terms of mix, other assets, which include the assets held for sale related to MFG during the fourth quarter of 2025 declined 17.1% to 12.5% of total assets in first quarter 2026 as MFG assets were derecognized following the completion of the divestiture. On the bottom of the page, gross loans grew 6% over the year and 1.5% during the quarter. Our peso-denominated loans increased 8% and 2.2% respectively. Commercial loans grew 5% year-on-year and 1.6% over the quarter. Peso-denominated commercial loans grew 8.6% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter. While US dollar-denominated commercial loans grew 4.1% year-on-year and decreased 3.3% quarter-on-quarter in dollar terms.
Our dollar-denominated loans account for 8.1% of our total portfolio after the MFG divestiture, and come primarily from the U.S. agencies of Banco de Bogotá, our trade finance activities, and the offshore subsidiaries of Banco de Bogotá and Banco de Occidente. These loans were affected by an appreciation of the Colombian peso of 12.7% year-on-year and 2.6% quarter-on-quarter. Consumer loans grew 4.2% year-on-year and 0.5% during the quarter. Payroll loans that account for 54% of our consumer loans grew 4.8% year-on-year and contracted 0.5% over the quarter. Personal loans that account for 27% of our consumer loans grew 14.1% over the year and 3.5% in the quarter. Credit cards that account for 11% of our consumer loans grew 1.2% year-on-year and contracted 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. Automobile loans that account for 7% of our consumer loans increased 1.3% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. Finally, mortgages grew 16.8% year-on-year and 3.5% over the quarter.
On page 12, we present funding and deposit evolution. Total funding reached COP 281 trillion, growing 8.9% year-on-year and 1.9% over the quarter. Total deposits, which account for around three-fourths of our funding, grew to COP 217 trillion at 11.7% year-on-year and 4.5% over the quarter. Savings deposits drove the overall deposit performance and gain share in our mix. Savings deposits grew 17.8% year-on-year and 6.2% during the quarter. A strong performance that reflects our continued efforts to deepen our retail funding business and diversify our funding mix. Our deposits to net loans increased to 116%, responding to higher volatility. This further pressed our NIM, adding to the challenge in benchmark rate increase. On page 13, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our attributed shareholders equity, and the capital and equity ratio of our banks. During the quarter, dividends of COP 755 billion were declared to our shareholders.
In addition, 708 billion COP of dividends were declared to the minorities at our subsidiaries. As a result, our total equity increased 3.3% over the quarter and increased 3% year-on-year. Our attributed shareholders equity increased 3.5% over the quarter and increased 3.6% year-on-year. Total solvency and Tier 1 ratios were relatively stable in most of our banks. In the case of Banco de Bogotá, the increase in solvency reflects the re-recognition of the risk-weighted assets coming from MFG after the sale was completed. In addition, Banco de Bogotá and Banco de Occidente solvency ratios reflect dividends distributed through March. On page 14, we present our NIM. Net interest income reached 2.2 trillion COP during the first quarter of 2026, increasing 14.3% compared to fourth quarter of 2025, and decreasing 4.1% compared to the first quarter of 2025.
Total NIM increased 39 basis points to 3.34% quarter-on-quarter, and decreased 45 basis points year-on-year. Our consolidated NIM on loans contracted to 4.4% during the quarter, down from 5.05% in fourth quarter 2025, mainly driven by the ongoing repricing of our cost of funds in response to higher rate environment. Our NIM on investment recovered to a 0.25%, up from negative 3.1% in the fourth quarter 2025, reflecting a mild recovery in the local capital markets. The quarter was also marked by a strong performance from FX and realities that completed our banks trading strategies. Focusing on our banking segment, the total NIM of our banking segment expanded one basis point from the quarter to 4.15% due to the same dynamics that affected our consolidated NIM. NIM on loans was 4.98%, decreasing 55 basis points quarter-on-quarter.
This incorporates a 59 basis points quarter-on-quarter decrease in NIM on retail loans to 6.47%, and a 46 basis points quarter-on-quarter decrease in NIM on commercial loans to 3.86%. The timing match between cash and repricing liability driven assets is a primary driver of NIM on loans compression observed this quarter. This effect will partially be reduced as commercial floating loans reprice with a lag of a few months. In addition, we have a relatively high liquidity profile to position our banks to event of volatility, further pressing our NIM. On page 15, we present yields and cost of funds. Interest rate dynamics on our loans and funding are driven by the movements in the average benchmark rate in Colombia. The average central bank intervention rate increased approximately 300 basis points from the first quarter, while our consolidated cost of deposits increased 16 basis points to 6.75%.
On pages 16 to 18, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios. On page 16, credit quality continues to improve during the quarter. 90-day PDLs were 3.33%, a 16 basis points improvement relative to the last quarter and 68 basis points over 12 months. 30-day PDLs were 4.3%, a seven basis points improvement over three months and 94 basis points over 12 months. PDL formation continued to accelerate. New 90-day PDLs in the quarter were 766 billion COP. The coverage ratio on 90-day PDLs strengthened to 137%, up from 134% three quarter 2025. Commercial 30-day PDLs were 3.86%, a two basis points increase over three months. 90-day PDLs were 314 basis points decrease over the quarter. We recorded an 18 basis points decrease in consumer 30-day PDLs to 4.49%, and 90-day PDL decrease of 21 basis points to 2.58%.
Mortgages, 30-day PDLs and 90-day PDLs improved 26 basis points and 19 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs was 0.64 targets. On page 17, the share of our loan portfolio classified as Stage 1 continued to improve, reaching 90.3% of the total portfolio, up from 89% in first quarter 2025 and 89.8% in fourth quarter 2025, reflecting the ongoing improvement in credit quality across all segments. The allowances for Stages 2 and 3 as a percentage of loans classified at Stages 2 and 3 was materially stable in the quarter for total loans. On page 18, our net cost of risk was 1.8%, increasing six basis points quarter-on-quarter, including 36 basis points year-on-year. Our gross cost of risk was 2.1% in first quarter 2026, stable quarter-on-quarter.
Net cost of risk for consumer loans was 4.1% in the quarter, a slight uptick from 3.8% in fourth quarter 2025, driven primarily by credit cards. Net cost of risk for commercial loans remained contained at 0.7%. On page 19, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income grew 6.9% year-on-year and increased 1% quarter-on-quarter. Net fee income increased 10% and decreased 0.7% respectively. Gross fee income was driven by a 5% increase in banking fees, 6.9% in pension funds, and 14.3% in trust fees. Income from the non-financial sector was around 1.3 times of that reported during the first quarter 2025 due to a positive impact of higher inflation and concession revenues. Energy and gas contributed COP 255 billion, roughly in line with previous periods.
Finally, on the bottom of the page, a year-on-year increase in operating income is mainly explained by lower derivatives and FX gains. By higher derivatives and FX gains. Net income from other financial instruments at fair value decreased COP 92 billion from COP 348 billion due to the one time fair value recognition of COP 303 billion related to the Promigas pipelines during fourth quarter 2025, as discussed on our previous call. On page 20, we present some efficiency ratios. Total other expenses reached COP 2,565 billion in first quarter 2026, increasing 20.3% year-on-year and 6.4% quarter-on-quarter. This is largely explained by the equity tax which was reported under general and admin expenses and accounts for COP 312 billion. Without the impact of the equity tax, OpEx grew 5.7% year-on-year and decreased 6% quarter-on-quarter versus a seasonally high fourth quarter.
Underlying expense growth remains moderate and broadly in line with our cost control targets. Operating taxes, excluding the equity tax, accounted for 22.9% of total expenses. Personnel expenses increased 5.1% year-on-year to COP 820 billion, impacted by the 23% minimum wage increase on part of our workforce. Cost to assets for the quarter was 3%, including a 36 basis points negative impact from the equity tax, and remains stable year-on-year at 2.6% when excluding this expense. Our quarterly cost to income improved to 53.9%, mainly due to higher income from the non-financial sector and net fees. Excluding the equity tax, cost to income was 47.3%, following the same drivers. Finally, on page 21, we present our net income and profitability ratios. Attributable net income was COP 337 billion or COP 14.2 per share.
This includes COP 351 billion from continuing operations and a net loss of COP 15 billion related to discontinued operations. The equity tax had a negative impact of COP 210 billion on our attributable net income for the quarter. Excluding this one-time impact, our net income from continuing operations would have been COP 561 billion. Return on average assets and return on average equity for the quarter were 0.9% and 7.4%, respectively. Excluding the effect of the equity tax, return on average assets and return on average equity would have been 1.2% and 12%. I will now summarize our general guidance for 2026. We expect loan growth in the 9.5% area. Commercial loans growing in the 6.5% area and retail loans growing in the 14% area. Our consolidated NIM in the 3.9% area, with NIM on loans in the 4.4% area.
NIM of our banking segment in the 4.8% area, with NIM on loans in the 5.2% area. Cost of risk net of recovery in the 1.9% area. Cost to assets in the 2.85% area, incorporating a 9 basis point impact of the equity tax. Income from the non-financial sector of 1.3 times of that for 2025. Our GIIC income ratio in the 22% area. Finally, we expect our 2026 return on average equity to be in the 9 and a quarter area, incorporating 114 basis points impact from the equity tax. Back to Maria Lorena.
Thank you, Diego. Before moving into questions and answers, I would like to share some final thoughts on Colombia and Grupo Aval in 2026. The environment we are navigating in 2026 is undeniably complex, with political and electoral uncertainty, persistent inflation, and a renewed monetary tightening cycle, and a challenging global backdrop. We have the experience and the tools to navigate it, and we are better positioned today than we were at the start of the previous cycle. Our balance sheet is more resilient, as shown by the diversification of our loan portfolio and our funding structure. We have decreased the duration of our loan book, which will enable us to reprice the cycle faster than before. On the funding side, we have reduced maturity and repricing gaps, growing in segments less sensitive to interest rates.
In addition, we have reduced interest rate sensitivity using interest rate swaps, among other derivative tools. On profitability, we expect our ROAE in the 9%-9.5% area for the year, incorporating, first, the 114 basis points negative effect of the equity tax, and second, the impact of tightening cycle on our NIM over the following quarters. Looking ahead, our path is clear. We will deepen our relevance with clients, accelerate the capture of efficiency through technology and operational integration, and continue unlocking the value of our non-financial businesses through Corficolombiana. All of this is anchored in our 2026, 2031 corporate strategy, our roadmap to consolidate Grupo Aval as Colombia's leading financial group. Colombia's financial sector will continue to be a pillar of trust and investment regardless of the political cycle. Grupo Aval will continue playing that role with discipline and a long-term perspective. Now we are open for questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have a question, please press star then the number 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star then 1 a second time. If you are using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, to ask a question, please press star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. Our first question will come from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank. Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have a first one, it's a clarification on the guidance. Just wanted to check with you if you mentioned that the group's NIM on loans for the year is expected at 4.4%, which is the level you finished this quarter. I think that's my first question. Depending on the answer, I have a follow-up.
Yeah, the answer is yes. It is 4.4%.
Okay, perfect.
The main difference
Just go ahead.
No, go ahead, please. Go ahead.
Just wanted to understand, how should we understand the positioning of the group in the cycle, right? Because the NIM level is coming from 4.6, went all the way to 5. Should we understand that now the sensitivity is a bit lower in the sense that as rates have continued to go up, you will have maybe muted effects on the NIM? Just wanted to clarify that.
Yeah. Brian, I think that the best way to think about it is throughout the year you are going to see volatility throughout the next few quarters. The reason for this volatility is the repricing mismatch between assets and liabilities. For example, in this quarter, we had a strong repricing on our liability side and very mild on the asset side. What we started to see at the end of the quarter that will reflect on the next quarter is a recovery of NIM. However, we do expect, as Camilo Pérez mentioned before, a further central bank action. The central bank action, the last one that we had, did not reflect in the first quarter because it happened at the end of the first quarter. So we are going to see that happening, and that might also press the third quarter moving forward.
That is the reason why I would say, again, that you are going to see volatility in the repricing process. I will stick to what we expect on average during the year.
Okay, perfect. Then another clarification on the guidance. You mentioned the ROE for the year, your expectation is 9.25% with 14 basis points impact from the wealth tax, right?
Yes. Before moving to that, I think you also asked regarding positioning, and I want to emphasize something that Maria Lorena Gutiérrez Botero mentioned. It is over these past years, we have been rebalancing our portfolio actively as well as our deposit side. Part of what we have done, and let me repeat part of what I said during the presentation, is to lower our exposure to payroll lending and increase our exposure to products on the retail side that reprice much faster. We also have reduced our position in dollar-denominated assets that have a lower NIM to try to enhance our NIM on the asset side. On the liability side, even though it takes much longer to be able to see consequences of what we are doing, we are strongly working on the retail side deposits.
Regarding positioning, trying to summarize what I said is we expect this to be a milder cycle than what we saw the last time around, where we were much more liability sensitive than what we currently are. Then, regarding ROE, I am going to try to summarize what we are guiding into. Basically, you might have seen that there were some changes that we did in our guidance, but some of them compensate what we will feel from the equity tax and also the pressure from the central bank actions. I would say roughly, we already have a clear view on how to compensate at least half of what happened from the equity tax and continue to work actively in trying to compensate the rest.
Our guidance for efficiency actually is not bringing down or being affected by the full impact of the equity tax, but we also already have around roughly half of that compensated. On the other hand, we are building in a tougher interest rate environment than what we expected before. Also, we are building in more liquidity in our balance sheets referring to the electoral volatility. You might imagine that this liquidity is very expensive because it has basically a zero NIM or slightly negative NIM that has affected us during this quarter. Perhaps after the electoral cycle, we might loosen that position. But we are seeing a tougher NIM environment. However, we have a few positives. One of the positives here is our cost of risk continues to behave better than what we expected before. That is coming in, and as I mentioned before, we are also working strongly on the efficiency side.
You saw Jorge Castaño's presentation that focused on actions rather than the actual results. But these are the actions that will lead us to these kind of results.
Yes.
Our next question will come from the line of Carlos.
Yeah. A final one, for your very good question, Brian. If you take our previous guidance was 10.5%. We have roughly 1.2 percentage point impact from the equity tax. We have a strong impact from the NIM, and we are compensating now. All in all, if you strip away the equity tax, we actually lowered our guidance in roughly 20 basis points or something of that order of magnitude.
Our next question will come from the line of Carlos Gomez with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. It was just a bit different. Can you tell us how the pension reform is going to affect your business, and whether you think that Porvenir should be part of your portfolio for the long run? Also, maybe this is not the right time, but what are the prospects of simplification of your structure and reducing the number of different units in the coming 3, 4 years, in your opinion?
Let me take the easy one, and I am going to pass it down to Maria Lorena. Regarding the pension reform, as we have mentioned in the past, the pension reform actually balances out to, let us say, something similar from the value perspective. That is, the pension reform reduces growth long term, and I am going to qualify what long term means, but also increases returns in the short term. Long term means when you take into consideration that an average affiliate to the pension system is around 38 years old, and that the resources will be managed by pension funds for the remainder of their active life before they retire. The contraction of what we are going to see there with current affiliates will start being relevant around after year 10. So during the first years, you are going to see volumes that are not strongly affected by non-performing.
However, it does change the expected sizes thereafter. Yes, Porvenir is actually a strong part of our business. It is both a Porvenir and as you see, the trust business are things we are working on. We are working not only on our intermediation business, but we are also considering as one of our pillars to work on the asset management and the fee-generating businesses in addition to what we do in intermediation.
Okay.
Our next question will come from the line of Yuri Fernandes with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Yuri, your line might be muted.
Hi, guys. Sorry, I was on mute. My fault here. Hi, Diego, Maria Lorena. I have a question regarding loan growth on the guidance. If I heard correctly, I think you are still guiding for 9.5%. That is just small adjustments from the previous around 10% that you had before. Consumer loans are still growing fast on your guidance rate, 14%. My question is more in line with what Brian was talking about the cycle, right? If there is a higher uncertainty in Colombia, inflation, higher rates, everything that we are seeing, do you think that keeping this growth of consumer loans is the best move? I am just checking if maybe being a little bit more cautious and growing a little bit less would not be in this kind of framework. Just checking your comfort of accelerating the growth from consumer.
I know Grupo Aval has been recovering market share, but again, just checking about the time and about the cycle. Then I had a second question regarding AV Villas. I was just checking the presentation, it caught a little bit my attention, the core capital of that unit. I know it is overall small for the group, but if you can comment about the core capital of AV Villas, why it is moved down while your other subsidiaries, they moved up. If you feel comfortable with that level of 9.3% character capital at Tier 1. Thank you.
Yeah. I am going to start first with your last question. That is a very easy one. If you look at our solvency ratios, our banks use mainly core equity Tier 1 and are not strong users of Tier 1 or Tier 2 item. You also mentioned that AV Villas is a small operation, so we can act very easily on AV Villas regarding potential support, and it will likely come not from APV, but from hybrid bonds as we have seen in the past. AV Villas is doing very well from the commercial side. That is the reason why you see consumption of solvency, and it is consumption due to a very healthy growth. To your question, I should have clarified that this guidance includes Itaú as part of the numbers.
Just going back to some of the numbers, the Itaú transaction will add around 2 percentage points in the share of credit cards. It will also add to our personal loans business. It is basically the main driver of that kind of flow. In absence of Itaú, you are right, we would have been guiding into much milder growth, more in line with a nominal GDP growth or something in that order of magnitude.
No, that was clear. Thank you very much, Diego.
Our next question will come from the line of Daniel Mora with Credicorp Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thank you for the presentation. I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding OpEx and efficiency. Can you please review what will be the OpEx savings per year during the next phase of the strategy with Aval Valor Compartido and efficiency target that you expect to reach in this year, 2026, and the medium term? That would be my first question. The second one is regarding Corficolombiana. Can you provide further color of the impact of inflation at Corficolombiana, especially in the infrastructure business? In the report, you mentioned that it considers the inflation expectations, but I would like to understand if it is in the expectations or they are full inflation. I would like to understand if this is just a one-off impact or considering the upward trend in inflation, we could expect higher increase in coming quarters.
Thank you very much.
Well, regarding OpEx, we are working on multiple fronts. Those that Jorge Castaño mentioned will be running by the end of this year, the run rate of around COP 30 million-COP 40 million per year. That is an initial phase of what we are going to be doing. Then, not included in what we discussed here, we are strongly working on the technology side, and in a later call, we can get back to that point where we see substantial opportunities to work on. Regarding Corfi, the way it works is these concessions, given that the rights received on the concessions, some of those are tied to inflation, do adjust up with expected annual inflation. That compensates in part the very strong increase in cost of funds that they have. So there is some sort of a net offset.
But if you were to think only of Corficolombiana, not the financial sector as a line, but Corficolombiana as a whole, they are being affected by higher interest rates, and the income from inflation on the concessions is not enough to fully compensate what they are feeling from the funding side.
Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. Our next question is a follow-up on the line of Carlos Gomez with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hello. I came back to the line because I think there was a question that was not answered before, and I just wanted to know if there is something you would like to address regarding the possible consolidation of the group in the next 3 or 4 years.
I am sorry, I missed the question.
Yeah. This is a question that we hear all the time. We just are working on having efficiencies and on having synergies among banks. We have a good integration with the fiduciarias this year. We are on the way to be more efficient, to have more impact, and to have risk hate. We are working on that. But no more to say.
Okay. Just wanted to make sure that you had the opportunity. Since we are at it, anything you can do to improve the liquidity of the stock?
Yeah. Our liquidity has been increasing, not enough to our satisfaction. Part of what we are doing, the investors relationship side is working strongly on communication. There are further actions that we would need to do to increase liquidity. There is no plans for a secondary or an issue at this point, so the actions would be more on stock management rather than from additional stock issue.
Very clear. Thank you so much.
Our next question will come from the line of Santiago Villanueva with Davivienda. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I just have two questions. My first question is, I see that in 2025, the four banks gained nearly 60 basis points in retail funding, market share, and by 2026, they have already gained 45 basis points. Most of that profit has come from Banco de Bogotá and Banco Popular. I would like to know what your market share expectations are for these segments in 2026 and what you have planned to help Banco de Occidente and to contribute a little bit more. My second question is, could you provide us a little more detail on the performance of the infrastructure segment in Corficolombiana for this quarter? Thank you.
Yeah. I only have a figure. I am happy to give it out to you later on. That is public information. I just do not have the number here. You are right, we are being more successful on Banco Popular and Banco de Bogotá bringing in retail deposits. You can be sure that we are working with all of the banks to ensure that all contribute to these very relevant strategic objectives. Regarding infrastructure, I think that was covered in the previous question. You have the one-time effects of changes in inflation expectations that improve the performance of the infrastructure business. However, as I mentioned, over the year, we are going to have a higher interest rate environment that will partially offset what we received during the first quarter. It is very much related to what I discussed before.
Regarding businesses in Corficolombiana, you know Colombia does not have new projects in infrastructure, given the government has not just opened one project in these last four years. Given that we are finishing our concessions, the construction of the concessions, we are looking for projects outside Colombia. This is part of our strategy. We hope that the new government, whatever, we will have new projects in infrastructure. Given that right now we do not have, we are looking at a route.
This will conclude our question and answer session. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, I turn the call back over to you.
Thank you to you for being with us today, and see you in the next call. Have a good day.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
TranscriptFY2025 Q42026-02-26FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 27 paragraphs
FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript
Welcome to Grupo Aval's Fourth Quarter 2025 Consolidated Results Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A., Grupo Aval is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulation in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulation. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as holding company of the Aval Financial conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Unconsolidated financial information of our subsidiaries and the Colombian banking system are presented in accordance with Colombian IFRS, as reported, the Superintendency of Finance. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report. On November 27, 2025, Banco de Bogota's subsidiary, Multi Financial Holding, Inc. MFG, entered into a share purchase agreement with BAC International Corporation, BIC, a subsidiary of BAC Holding International Corp. for the disposal of 99.57% of the issued and outstanding shares of Multi Financial Group, Inc. MFG, the parent company of Multibank Inc. For comparability purposes only, we have prepared and present supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information for the periods prior to 4Q '25, which reflects the reclassification of the operations relating to MFG as noncurrent assets and liabilities held for sale and discontinued operations. This supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information does not intend to represent and should not be considered indicative of the results of operations or financial position that would have been achieved had the transaction occurred on the dates assumed nor is it intended to project our results of operations or financial position for any future period or date. The pro forma financial information is unaudited and the completion of the external audit for the year ended December 31, 2025, may result in adjustments to the unaudited pro forma financial information presented herein. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic, and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates, and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update, or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report. The financial statements of Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. in accordance with Colombian regulations must be filed with the market and with the Superintendency of Finance with the opinion of an external auditor. At the time of this quarterly call, this process is still ongoing. The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, you may begin.
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining Grupo Aval's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. I'm so sorry, but I have a little flu, oh, a terrible flu, but I'm trying to -- that you can understand me. I am joined today by Diego Solano, our Chief Financial Officer; Camilo Perez, Chief Economist at Banco de Bogota; Paula Duran, Corporate Vice President of Sustainability and Strategic Project. I would like to start by highlighting the positive evolution of our results during 2025, despite the challenging and volatile local and global environment. We reached COP 1.7 trillion in net income during 2025, a 70% increase compared to the previous year and more than twice that of 2023. This improvement was primarily driven by stronger contributions from our banking business and a record performance year by Porvenir. Since our last call, we completed important milestones in line with our strategic focus to strengthen our strategic priorities. First, we completed the merger of our trust company. Second, we reached an agreement to acquire Banco Itau's Colombian retail business. Third, we reached an agreement to divest MFG. And fourth, Corfi has successfully completed transaction that will grow in business in the short-term. On January 2, 2026, we successfully merged our fiduciary businesses from Fiduciaria Bogota, Fiduciaria de Occidente, and Fiduciaria Popular into Aval Fiduciaria. This transaction consolidates our trust services into a single strong entity, enhancing our value proposition for existing and new customers and generating operational efficiencies. We expect this to result in an increase of our market share in trust fee income and AUMs and improve the profitability of this business. On December 23, 2025, Banco de Bogota announced the acquisition of Banco Itau with the banking business in Colombia and Panama. This move reinforces Banco de Bogota's focus on the affluent segment, enhances the quality of our client needs and strengthens our competitive positioning in Colombia. The acquisition is expected to add around 267,000 clients with USD 6.5 trillion in loans and USD 4.1 trillion in deposits. The deal excludes Itau's corporate banking and is pending regulatory approval. On November 27, Banco de Bogota announced that it has reached an agreement to sell MFG, a Panamanian bank to [ CAB ], that is the Central American Bank. This unit has delivered modest results since its acquisition in 2020 and require a large scale to achieve the desired performance. The divestment of MFG strengthens Banco de Bogota's position to pursue a stronger growth in its core market and reallocate capital towards businesses with a stronger strategic alignment and long-term potential. The sale process for this operation is expected to close over the following months, following regulatory approvals in Panama. This quarter, Multi Financial Group's balance sheet and P&L have been classified as discontinued operations. Corfi announced 2 major acquisitions. The first one, Corfi announced agreement to participate with a 51% stake in Sencia, the concessionaire of the 20 -- 29 sorry, year public-private partnership for the renovation, construction, and operation and maintenance of Bogota Nemesio Camacho Stadium complex. Sencia will develop a USD 2.4 trillion project, includes a new 50,000-seat stadium, cultural and commercial components, public space development, and mobility solutions. In the energy and gas sector, Promigas signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Zelestra's renewable energy generation platform, reinforcing its transformation into a multi-energy platform with operations in Colombia, Chile, and Peru. This transaction has a portfolio of more than 19 solar and storage projects totaling 1.4 gigawatts of contracted capacity and over 2.1 gigawatts under development, supporting diversification of nonregulated businesses and stable long-term contracted revenues, subject to project approvals in Colombia and Peru. Regarding results from continued operation for the quarter, positive trends continued to consolidate during the quarter. Our risk-adjusted NIM on loans for the quarter stood at 3.34%, the highest level in 3 years, while our cost of risk continued its positive trend. Return on average equity came in slightly below our initial expectations, mainly due to a weaker-than-expected NIM on investments triggered by volatile local and international capital markets and the onetime effects related to the MFG sale agreement, which Diego will explain in detail. I will now pass on to Paula, who will go over our sustainability achievements for the year. Paula?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. Good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, we closed an extraordinary year for sustainability, further consolidating our ESG strategy. One profitability is built by integrating strong financial performance, measurable social impact, and responsible environmental management. Our framework is structured around 3 pillars: Returns with purpose, opportunities for all, and environmental value. Under our first pillar, returns with purpose, we continue to scale sustainable finance. Our sustainable loan portfolio reached COP 44.9 trillion, including COP 36.2 trillion in social lending and COP 8.7 trillion in green lending. Social lending included targeted credit lines for senior citizens, housing, women entrepreneurs, coffee growers, and micro businesses. Green lending supported renewable energy, infrastructure, sustainable mobility and water management projects, among others. In our investment portfolio, Maria Lorena already mentioned our agreement with Zelestra that reinforces our commitment to clean energy. We also received important external recognitions. In the S&P Corporate Sustainability Assessment, we achieved a historic score of 81 out of 100 and were included in the S&P Sustainability EU. Additionally, Banco de Bogota, Equity Colombia, Banco de Occidente and Villas were also included in the EU, demonstrating the consistency and consolidation of our sustainability strategy across the group. In the MSCI assessment, we improved our rating to BBB, driven by stronger social impact metrics and enhanced responsible investment practice. On our second pillar, opportunities for all, this pillar focuses on generating inclusive growth and shared value. We calculated the total economic value generated and distributed, which reached COP 41 trillion in 2025. In this value distributed to more than 31,000 suppliers that received COP 11 trillion, our 67,500 employees also earned COP 3.8 trillion. We also paid COP 3.4 trillion in taxes and generated COP 13 trillion in returns for our clients. Additionally, we invested COP 70 billion in voluntary social programs, benefiting more than 2 million people, focusing on community infrastructure, education and research, socioeconomic development, and the promotion of culture, art and sports. Through Mision La Guajira, the most significant private sector social initiative in Colombia, we fulfilled our commitment, benefiting more than 21,500 people across 80 communities with potable water, electricity, and connectivity. The program also included financial education initiatives and supported over 1,500 value artisans fostering sustainable live schools. We also supported the VAMOS Finances scholarship program exceeding our fundraising goals and reaching COP 1.1 billion, benefiting more than 1,200 students. For our third pillar, environmental balance, we joined the partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials, CAF, committing to measuring the contributions associated with our financial activities. We also launched our nature strategy aligned with the NSE and began a pilot implementation with one of our entities. At the group level, we also achieved tangible equal efficiency improvements. Energy consumption reduced by 9.6%, renewable energy use increased to 38%, water consumption reduced by 2%, and waste generation decreased by 9%. In summary, we closed 2025 with meaningful progress across all 3 pillars, reinforcing our position as the Aval that drives support and transform the group. We continue to generate opportunities for more sustainable development and create long-term value for our shareholders and all stakeholders. Thank you.
Thank you, Paula. Now moving to the macro environment. A lot has happened since our last call that has changed our expectation for 2026. A massive and technical increase in minimum wages has triggered a substantial increase in inflation expectations and has a strong terms from the Central Bank to control inflation expectations. These recent events add to the increase in real interest rate expectations that result from growing concerns on the current administration's fiscal discipline. As a result, since our last call, we have raised 200 basis points our expectation on 2026 inflation and 350 basis points year-end 2026 Central Bank intervention rate, changing the improvement trends we previously anticipated. 2025 was characterized by elevated global uncertainty. The year was marked by abrupt changes in U.S. economic policy, increased trade tensions and greater economic fragmentation. Despite these challenges, global growth proved resilient, reaching an estimated of 3.3%, supported by a second half recovery, higher investment, and accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence technologies. In Colombia, economic activity remained resilient. GDP growth closed at 2.6% for 2025, driven primarily by household consumption and public spending. However, the GDP outlook remains challenging. Investment level stand at historical low levels and the country's fiscal deficit is among the largest globally, despite interest savings achieved through the government's liability management strategy. Household consumptions and government spending alone cannot sustain structural economic growth if investment remains absent and the government continues to crowd out the private sector. Inflation closed the year at 5.1%, remaining above the Central Bank's target range. Furthermore, inflationary pressures derived from -- derived from the 23.7% increase in the minimum wage led to the beginning of a new restrictive cycle in monetary policy as evidenced by 100 basis points increase in the Central Bank rate in January. Moving on to the exchange rate. The weaker U.S. dollar and the heavy dollar inflows from remittances and the national government liability management strategies led to 14.8% appreciation of the Colombian peso relative to the U.S. dollar. Camilo will now elaborate on our economic outlook. Camilo?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. Good morning. The Colombian economy grew by 2.6% in 2025, below the consensus estimate and that of technical staff of the Central Bank. The surprise came from investment results with gross fixed capital formation growing only 1.3%. The weak growth in investment was offset by the divestment of machinery and equipment, which registered an annual increase of 9% due to the needs faced by businesses to meet higher domestic demand. Meanwhile, investment in housing, infrastructure, and intellectual property contracted annually. As a result, Colombia ended 2025 with an investment rate of 16.6% of GDP, the lowest level so far this century. Ultimately, high levels of uncertainty, elevated interest rates due to persistent inflation and large fiscal deficits have led the country to face a complex investment landscape with the financial mining and energy construction and communication sectors being the most impacted. Conversely, the economy found supporting household and public sector spending. On the household side, higher income from wages, remittances, government transfers, coffee exports, and tourism led to an acceleration in private consumption growth from 1.6% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025. The growth in goods expenditures surpassed that of services. As a result, sectors such as commerce, lodging, food, transportation, recreation, and services in general continued their upward trend. In manufacturing, while growth was observed in line with the increased household demand for goods, the appreciation of the peso reduced the competitiveness of local production. Meanwhile, amid the suspension of the fiscal rule and the higher budget execution, public spending increased from 0.6% growth in 2024 to 7.1% in 2025, the highest rate since 2021. Also public spending boosted local activity, it was financed with increased debt, leading to a widening of the primary fiscal deficit. Thus the fiscal stimulus appears unsustainable and ultimately display the private sector in an example of carrying out. In the external sector, lower national competitiveness explained by the appreciation of the Colombian peso against the dollar and higher labor hiring costs led to exports moderating the growth rate from 3.2% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025. By 2026, amid more adverse financial conditions, weakening private consumption, a more challenging fiscal situation and high uncertainty surrounding the elections, the Colombian economy is projected to moderate its growth rate to 2.4%. Turning to prices. Inflation ended 2025 at 5.1%, virtually unchanged from 2024. Here, inflation improvements in rents and regulated prices were offset by increased pressure of food, goods, and services different from rents. At this point, higher labor costs resulting from the significant minimum wage increase, the reduction in working hours and the approval of labor reform weighed on inflation on goods and services. Meanwhile, high household and government spending limited the scope of improvement in inflation. By 2026, the minimum wage increase of over 23%, which in real terms was the highest in history, will lead to a resurgence of inflation. Specifically, inflation is expected to end 2026 at around 6.2%. The impact on inflation is also greater, thanks to the appreciation of the Colombian peso and its effect on the prices of inputs as well as the policy of reducing gasoline prices and the lower indexation based on rents. On the fiscal front, the government closed 2025 with the highest primary fiscal deficit, which excludes interest payments since the crisis of the 1990s and the pandemic. The government addressed the high spending pressures with active debt issuance using alternative mechanisms such as the direct sale of debt to an important investment fund and so of short and long-term debt during the year. Calculations by our economic research team indicate that the Ministry of Finance issued more than COP 110 billion of treasury bonds in 2025 when the stipulated limit was COP 95 billion. For 2026, no major changes are anticipated on the fiscal front. In fact, the deficit could exceed 7% of GDP, given the absence of the fiscal rule and, again, considering high spending and weak revenues. With this scenario where inflation is rebounding and the fiscal situation remains vulnerable, the Central Bank would consolidate an upward trend in interest rates. Our economic research team expects the benchmark interest rate to rise from 9.25% at the end of the year-end of 2025 to 11.25% by mid-2026, a level at which it would remain for at least the remainder of the year. The risks are tilted upwards. With a scenario of higher domestic interest rates, a weak dollar globally due to the United States trade policies and expectations of lower rates from the Federal Reserve, the exchange rate closed 2025 at COP 3,780 per dollar, 50% lower than at the end of 2024. However, in the second half of the year, the downward trend in the exchange rate intensified due to the government sale of dollars. In the second half of the year, the government sold more than $7 billion, an amount not seen since the pandemic. In 2026, the Colombian peso is expected to continue finding support from the wider interest rate differential, the international outlook and the nation's ample dollar availability. However, the election results will be crucial. Currently, the exchange rate is expected to remain below COP 4,000 per dollar throughout the year. Regarding the dynamics of dollar flows in the Colombian economy, it is important to note that for the first time in history, remittances surpassed oil exports as the primary source of dollars of the economy. This further consolidated diversification of the export basket. Finally, the legislative and presidential elections to be held in the first half of 2026 will define the country's economic future. It is too early to draw conclusions about the election results, but the central scenario is based on the expectation that Colombia will have a more fiscally disciplined government, which will reduce uncertainty and promote investment and in general, will make public policy decisions based on technical criteria that boost economic growth. Thank you. Back to you, Maria Lorena.
Thank you, Camilo. Turning to our financial results. 2025 was a transition year. In the banking segment, gross loans ended the year at COP 190.1 trillion, increasing by 4.8% compared to 2024. Profitability improved meaningfully, supported by a sharp decline in funding costs that expanded the spread between loan yields and funding costs by 41 basis points. Cost of risk improved from 2.3% to 1.9%, reflecting a stronger consumer portfolio performance and disciplined underwriting. Expense growth remained below the increase in the minimum wage, improving efficiency metrics. As a result, return on equity in the banking sector reached double digits. Banco Popular, Banco AV Villas returned to the profitability and Banco de Bogota, Banco de Occidente continue improving the results. Despite a weak market results at year-end, Porvenir delivered its strongest annual performance to date. Assets under management reached USD 271.2 trillion, an increase -- sorry, an increase 14.9% and ROAE reached 21.2%. Corfi worked throughout the year to lay the foundation for a new growth cycle driven by portfolio rotation and entry into high potential sectors. Deleveraging efforts and decline in rates led to a 16% reduction in funding costs, reflecting lower debt levels and more favorable interest rates. Finally, operational efficiencies continued to materialize following the exit from financial services. Now I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give details of our results. Diego?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will start on Pages 11 and 12 with a few charts showing the growth rate and quality of our loan portfolio relative to the rest of the Colombian banking system. For comparability reasons, these are unconsolidated figures under Colombian IFRS as published by the Superintendency of Finance. Starting on Page 11. During 2025, loans for the banking system grew 2.1% in real terms with mortgages growing 6.3%, consumer loans 1.48%, commercial loans 0.7%, all in real terms. During 2025, we continue to focus on profitable growth. We focused on local currency commercial loans in segments other than large corporates and on personal loans and credit cards and consumer lending. Peso-denominated commercial loan market share remained unchanged at 26.3%. We are selective in large corporate commercial lending given the aggressive pricing competition present throughout the year, where we lost 204 basis points. However, we gained 131 basis points of market share in local currency-denominated commercial loans other than large corporates. We gained market share in products and segments where we were underweighted such as factoring, where we gained 543 basis points to 24.2% and government loans where we gained 219 basis points to 23%. Regarding our dollar-denominated commercial loans where we have historically been overweighted, we reduced our market share by 356 basis points to 35.3%. In addition, in peso terms, the balances of dollar-denominated commercial loans were negatively impacted by the 14.8% appreciation of the Colombian peso over the year. As a result of the above, our market share for commercial loans fell 37 basis points. Consumer loans, we focused on diversifying our portfolio towards higher yielding and short-term loans, reducing our concentration in payroll lending. We gained 138 basis points of market share on personal loans to 21.5%. The Itau consumer business acquisition will take us to market weight. To strengthen our credit card business where we lost 132 basis points to 17.4%, we launched the [indiscernible] and other initiatives. All of this while maintaining our leadership position in payroll lending where we have 42.2% market share. Overall, our market share for consumer loans closed at 28.9% with a 53 basis points decrease. Moving on to mortgages. We continue gaining market share with 117 basis points increase throughout the year. As a result of the above mentioned, we closed our market share in total loans at 25%, 28 basis points lower than in 2024. On Page 12, loan quality for both the system and Aval banks showed an improvement during the year across all categories. Our banks continue to exhibit better loan quality portfolio than the system in all categories. I will now move to the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS. As mentioned by Maria Lorena, Banco Bogota entered into a share purchase agreement to sell MFG of Romanian bank. As a result, in December 2025, we classified this operation as noncurrent assets and liabilities held for sale and discontinued operations. For reason of comparison with previously reported periods, we're showing retrospectively on this call pro forma balances and ratios, classifying MFG as noncurrent assets and liabilities held for sale and discontinued operations. On Page 13, we present assets and loans. Assets grew 6.4% year-on-year and 1.5% for the quarter to COP 349 trillion. Fixed income investments, which account for 15.8% of our assets reached COP 5.2 trillion, growing 21.2% year-on-year and decreasing 0.2% over the quarter. Gross loans, which account for 54.7% of our assets reached COP 190.9 trillion, growing 46% year-on-year and 1.5% over the quarter. Growth metrics were affected by a 4.2% depreciation of the Colombian peso during the quarter and 14.8% over the year. Peso-denominated loans that now account for 91.3% of gross loans grew 6.8% year-on-year and 1.7% during the quarter. Commercial loans expanded by 1.9% year-on-year and 1.1% over the quarter. Peso-denominated commercial loans that account for 84.7% of gross loans grew 5.5% year-on-year and 1.4% during the quarter. Dollar-denominated commercial loans, which accounts for 15.3% of commercial loans grew 0.4% in dollar terms year-on-year and 3.9% during the quarter. In peso terms, our dollar-denominated loans contracted 14.5% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. Consumer loans grew 4.7% year-on-year and 1.2% during the quarter. Personal loans grew 12% year-on-year and 5% during the quarter. Credit cards contracted 1.5% year-on-year and increased 2.9% during the quarter. Our loans grew 0.6% year-on-year and 1.1% during the quarter. Payroll loans increased 3.2% year-on-year and decreased 0.9% during the quarter. Mortgages grew 19.6% year-on-year and 3.9% during the quarter. On Page 14, we present the evolution of funding and deposits. Total funding increased 8.7% year-on-year and 1.4% in the quarter. The bank borrowings grew 28% year-on-year, in line with the expansion of our trading investment portfolio, as mentioned before, and account for 8.2% of total funding. Deposits that account for around 3/4 of our funding grew 11.2% year-on-year and 3.6% quarter-on-quarter. Our deposit to net loan ratio closed at 113%. On Page 15, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our attributable shareholders' equity and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Our total equity increased 0.3% over the quarter and 4.8% year-on-year, while our attributable equity increased 0.2% over the quarter and 5.7% year-on-year. Total solvency and Tier 1 ratios evidence a relative stability in most of our banks. On Page 16, we present NIM, our net interest margin. Net interest income reached COP 9.3 trillion for the year, increasing 17.4% compared to 2024. Total NIM for the year increased 28 basis points to 3.78% in 2025. Our consolidated NIM on loans expanded by 28 basis points year-on-year to 4.71%, while NIM on investments decreased by 8 basis points to 0.82%. NIM on loans incorporates an 84% year-on-year expansion of NIM on retail loans to 6.33% and an 18 basis points year-on-year contraction in NIM on commercial loans to 3.5%. Focusing on our banking segment, the total NIM of our banking segment expanded 8 basis points over the year to 4.47% due to the same dynamics that affected our consolidated net interest margin. NIM on loans was 5.24%, increasing 9 basis points year-on-year. This incorporates a 69 basis points year-on-year increase in NIM on retail loans to 6.9% and a 39 basis points year-on-year decrease in NIM on commercial loans to 4.02%. Quarterly NIM was negatively impacted by adverse capital market performance, driven by a 3.48% negative NIM on investments. In contrast, NIM on loans for the quarter reached 5.05%, 48 basis points higher than the previous quarter and the best result in 12 quarters. As discussed by Maria Lorena, the recent shift in the monetary cycle in response to recent government decisions will act as a headwind for NIM over the next quarters. The development of our financial diversification strategic pillar continues to pay off. We have diversified our funding sources towards less sensitive non maturing deposits, including deposits from individuals and cash management linked deposits. Our banks lowered maturities and repricing gaps and actively implemented interest rate hedging strategies. On Page 17, we present our yield on loans, cost of funds spreads. On a consolidated basis, the average yield on loans for the year decreased 126 basis points to 12.06%, while the annual average 3-month IDR decreased 158 basis points to 9.4%. Consolidated cost of deposits decreased 148 basis points during the year to 6.63%, while our cost of funds decreased 141 basis points to 6.8%. On Pages 18 through 20, we present several portfolio quality ratios -- starting on Page 18. Loan portfolio quality ratios continued to improve during the quarter. PDL metrics continue to improve in all categories. 30-day PDL formation for the year reached COP 4.2 trillion, 32.8% lower than for 2024. 30-day PDLs were 4.37%, a 98 basis points improvement over 12 months and 37 basis points over the quarter. 90-day PDLs were 3.29%, a 77 basis points improvement over 12 months and 11 basis points improvement over the quarter. Commercial loans 30-day PDLs were 3.84%, a 101 improvement year-on-year and 38 basis points improvement quarter-on-quarter. 90-day PDLs were 3.48%, a 91 basis points improvement over the year and 19 basis points over the quarter. Consumer 30-day PDLs improved 117 basis points year-on-year and 16 basis points over the quarter to 4.67%. 90-day PDLs improved 63 basis points year-on-year and 5 basis points during the quarter to 2.79%. Mortgage 30-day PDLs and 90-day PDLs improved 8 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, over the quarter to 6.18% and 3.75%, respectively. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs for 2025 was 0.82x. On Page 19. The share of our portfolio classified as Stage 1 grew to 89.8%, while Stage 3 decreased for a 6-month consecutive quarter -- consecutive quarter to 5.7%, driven by improvements in our consumer portfolio. Coverage measured as allowances for Stages 2 and 3 as a percentage of Stages 2 and 3 was 33.6%, decreasing 545 basis points relative to a year earlier due to improvement in the mix. On Page 20, in 2025, cost of risk net of recoveries fell 38 basis points to 1.9%, in line with our expectations for the year. For consumer loans, cost of risk net of recoveries improved 157 basis points to 4.2%. This includes a 449 basis points improvement in personal loans to 8.4%. For commercial loans, cost of risk net of recoveries was 0.7%. During the fourth quarter of 2025, cost of risk net of recoveries fell 27 basis points to 1.7%, the lowest in 12 quarters, driven by a decrease both in commercial and consumer portfolios of 36 basis points to 0.6% and 23 basis points to 3.8%, respectively. On Page 21, we present net fees and other income. Annual gross fee income grew 6.8%, while net fee increased 5.3%, quarterly gross and net fee income increased 8.5% and 9.6% year-on-year. In terms of annual gross fees, pension and trust fees grew 9.1% and 14.9%, boosted by performance-based management fees that followed the positive returns of the financial markets throughout the year. Our annual income from the nonfinancial sector was 84% of that recorded in 2024, mainly due to a lower contribution from the infrastructure sector. Quarterly income was affected by a lower income from the energy and gas sector and the infrastructure sector as well. This was partially offset by income from hotels. Finally, at the bottom of the page, the annual increase in the operating income is mainly driven by a COP 605 billion improvement in derivatives and FX gains. Hedging strategies relative to the nonfinancial sector are registered under foreign exchange gains and account for COP 863 billion yearly improvement. During the quarter, one of Promigas transportation pipelines measured as fair value reverted to the company's PP&E and implied a onetime fair value recognition of COP 303 billion. This effect was registered under net income from other financial instruments mandatory at fair value to P&L. This positive effect was offset by a onetime remeasurement of the deferred tax liabilities to COP 359 billion. Net-net, the transaction had a COP 56 billion negative effect on net income and COP 12 billion negative effect on our attributable net income. On Page 22, we present some efficiency ratios. Cost to assets remained flat at 2.6% Annual cost to income improved 101 basis points to 52.2% over the quarter. On a quarterly basis, it reached 54.9%, 550 basis points lower than a year earlier. Annual expenses grew 9.6% during the year. General and admin expenses grew 9.4% year-on-year. Personnel expenses grew 6.9% year-on-year, well below the 9.5% increase in Colombia's minimum wage. Finally, on Page 23, we present our net income and profitability ratios. Attributable net income from continued operations for the quarter was COP 474 million, 57.5% higher than the same quarter of the previous year. Total attributable net income for the year reached COP 1.72 trillion or COP 72.5 per share, increasing close to 70% compared to the previous year. Our annual return on average assets was 1% and our average annual return on average equity was 9.6%, 28 basis points and 366 basis points above 2024, respectively. In terms of discontinued operations, the results contributed by MFG's operations as all attributable net income adding COP 18 billion. To wrap up, we are updating our guidance to reflect changes in the macro environment impacting our business. We expect loan growth in the 10% area with commercial loans growing at 7% and retail loans growing at 14%. Total NIM in the 4.3% area with NIM on loans in the 4.7% area. Our NIM of the banking segment in the 5.1% area with NIM on loans in the 5.4% area. Cost of risk net of recoveries in the 2% area, cost to assets in the 2.8% area. Income from the nonfinancial sector, 1.3x that of 2025. Our fee income ratio in the 21% area. And finally, we expect a 2026 return on average equity to be in the 10.5% area. This guidance does not incorporate the recently announced wealth tax, which we estimate will have an impact on our ROE of 1 percentage point area. Back to you, Maria Lorena.
Okay. Thank you, Diego. Before moving into questions and answers, I would like to share some final thoughts of Colombia and Grupo Aval in 2026. We expect 2026 to continue to be challenging in Colombia given the effects of political volatility and electoral uncertainty. Economic conditions are expected to remain challenging, both locally and globally. We expect GDP growth to remain moderate in 2026 and a restrictive monetary environment. The massive minimum wage increase will put pressure on our cost base that of our customers. Inflation will remain above the Central Bank's target range, which implies a return to a higher for longer interest rate environment. Despite this backdrop, we strongly believe that we should remain focused in our strategy and improving our business and abstain from echoing uncertainty. The financial sector will continue to be a pillar of trust and investment. We expect to continue growing our financial business and invest through core fee in the nonfinancial sector in the region during 2026. As a result, we expect to continue strengthening our core business, supported on an expansion of risk-adjusted NIM on loans, commercial and operational effectiveness and a stronger fee generation. In 2026, we will continue delivering new and innovative products. In addition, during this year, we expect to see increases in efficiencies from shared services and IT integration initiatives and strengthening a client-center unified corporate culture. So we are now open for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Daniel Mora with CrediCorp Capital.
I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding the new tax for companies. I would like to know what did you understand for liquid equity as it says that it is gross equity minus debt for the tax? So I would like to understand how it will be applied for Bank of Aval, you already mentioned a 1% point for the consolidated ROE, but I would like to understand what will be the impact across Bank of Aval? That will be the first question. And the second one is also on regulatory issues and regarding taxes, considering the previous economic emergency decree was put on hold, what is the effective tax rate that you are using in your numbers? Are you considering the 15% tax surcharge or paying, for example, deferred taxes?
Okay. I'll try to answer you, of course. I can't be a tax adviser here for you, but our understanding of how the network tax works is similar to what we've done -- we've experienced in the past, and it is subtracting from the tax base, the equity tax base of the bank or the company, its tax acquisition price of the shares it holds in its taxable balance sheet. That's the way it is expected to work, and it is similar to what has been in the past, the kind of language that we've seen in what has come up to date is basically the same that we saw in 2014. Regarding what happens to the group, yes, attributable should be something in the order of magnitude of 1 percentage point. And if you think that the attributable net -- the attributable equity of Grupo Aval is roughly 55%, 60% of the consolidated group. If you add what our group will be contributing to the tax in that sense would be almost twice of what we do attributable to our shareholders. Regarding how we calculate our tax in our guidance. The number comes out something similar to 35%. That is a combination of the taxes that we have to pay for our financial companies that have a surcharge in our numbers of 5% and then the taxes that other companies pay less those that have some exceptions. So...
But it means that is without the economic emergency...
Exactly.
For the situation that we have before that.
Exactly. That is what we expect on our base. And as I mentioned, the equity tax would add up to that around 5 percentage points if you were to make our calculation based on marginal tax.
Our next question will come from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank.
Can you provide an update on the guidance you provided in the third quarter regarding loan growth, cost of risk, and ROE? I think it would be very useful. And then just to confirm, basically, you're saying your base case is no change in the tax rate, right? You're basically saying we have no surcharge and we have no wealth tax. That is the base case implied in the guidance, right?
Yes. The 10.5%, you're right, the 10.5% basically takes taxes as well, not the taxes from the emergency, and that's why we are guiding into an additional effect that we could have from the wealth tax. Regarding our guidance, we have slightly reduced our guidance on growth. And regarding ROE, there is an implied 150 basis points reduction in guidance and ROE compared to our last call.
Okay. So just to confirm here, you were, if I'm not mistaken, guiding for a range of 12% to 12.5%. We're basically going to 11% or close to 11%. Is this...
Just restating, we are in the 10.5% area guiding. Last time we were in the 12% area with an upward bias at that point.
Okay. If I may, you basically are explaining that you are seeing no changes in the tax rate, slightly lower loan growth. So which is the driver here on the reduction? Is it -- I know you're liability sensitive or not as asset sensitive as other banks, so it could be the NIM? Or do you think this is more related to cost of risk? Because you mentioned efficiencies should be better in 2026 and onwards from what I understood.
Yes. It's a combination of several things. One and the main driver is a better mix of our loan portfolio that is also helping us to cope with the kind of behavior of the Central Bank rate that will imply a relatively better NIM year-on-year. There could be a reduction if you take the numbers that we had for the fourth quarter that was the best quarter in NIM, as I mentioned. However, year-on-year that there's an improvement. There's other things that are going to happen, and it is we expect Porvenir to have a better performance than what we had guided before, basically for 2 reasons. One, higher minimum wage implies higher fees from contributions from our customers. And then a higher interest rate environment is positive for Porvenir. On top of that, we have the other inorganic discussions that Maria Lorena pointed out that we expect to help us. We expect to see our mix improve. You've seen that throughout the past years, we've been moving towards retail to the retail segment. We've been working strongly on improving that organically and organically. That also improves our performance. And actually, when we compare our cost of risk, there is no change in cost of risk. The other area that -- where we could see a substantial improvement is NIM coming from investments. In general terms, we've seen volatility in this year, and there's been points in time as was fourth quarter where NIM on investments was negative on our results.
Super clear. I am very sorry to insist here. Just that I don't understand because if you're assuming no change in cost of risk and you're assuming a better mix and what I understood is a stable NIM, but then you're mentioning basically the reduction on ROE is of 100 bps year-over-year in the guidance. Is this only coming directly from a reduction in your expectations of loan growth, which I assume they were around 8% in the last call?
Yes. I have to correct myself. I just pulled out our guidance last time. We have actually a slight pickup on retail. And we also have, as I mentioned before, when you look at our effective tax rate, we're also building in a higher tax rate for this year.
[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, I turn the call back over to you.
I just want to say thank you for being here with us and see you in 3 months. Bye.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-11-14Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and ...
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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Release Date: November 13, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) reported a year-to-date net income of 1.4 trillion pesos, an 88% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Net income for the quarter was 521 billion pesos, marking the highest quarterly figure in three years and reflecting a 25.3% year-over-year growth. The company saw a strong performance in consumer loans, which experienced the strongest quarterly growth in 10 quarters at 1.5%. Peso-denominated deposits from individuals grew 22% over the year, with savings and checking accounts growing 11% and term deposits 31%. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) launched Go Payment, an instant payment system, which processed more than 10 million transactions with a total amount of 2 trillion pesos in its first month. The fiscal environment remains challenging, with a projected fiscal deficit of 7.5% of GDP in 2025. Inflationary pressures persist, with inflation expected to close at 5.3% in 2025, driven by ongoing minimum wage discussions. The central bank's policy rate remains high at 9.25%, which could impact investment decisions. The appreciation of the Colombian peso negatively impacted growth metrics, reducing gross loan growth by 1.1% year-on-year. The cost of risk is expected to increase to 2% in 2026, reflecting a change in asset mix and potential macroeconomic challenges. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with AVAL. Is AVAL fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Q: Could you repeat the guidance, focusing on general loan growth and ROE for 2025 and 2026? Also, are the contributions from trading and other operating income sustainable?A: For 2025, we expect loan growth of 4.5%, with retail loans growing at 8.5% and commercial loans at 2%. For 2026, we anticipate 8% loan growth, with retail at 9% and commercial at 7%. The trading income has been strong, but we had a particularly strong performance from Porvenir this quarter. We expect positive performance to continue, but this quarter was exceptional. The NIM on loans is improving, and we are working on a better asset and liability mix to support this trend. Q: What are the expected levels for cost of risk and ROE for 2025 and 2026?A: For 2025, we expe…Read full documentShow less
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Release Date: November 13, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) reported a year-to-date net income of 1.4 trillion pesos, an 88% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Net income for the quarter was 521 billion pesos, marking the highest quarterly figure in three years and reflecting a 25.3% year-over-year growth. The company saw a strong performance in consumer loans, which experienced the strongest quarterly growth in 10 quarters at 1.5%. Peso-denominated deposits from individuals grew 22% over the year, with savings and checking accounts growing 11% and term deposits 31%. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) launched Go Payment, an instant payment system, which processed more than 10 million transactions with a total amount of 2 trillion pesos in its first month. The fiscal environment remains challenging, with a projected fiscal deficit of 7.5% of GDP in 2025. Inflationary pressures persist, with inflation expected to close at 5.3% in 2025, driven by ongoing minimum wage discussions. The central bank's policy rate remains high at 9.25%, which could impact investment decisions. The appreciation of the Colombian peso negatively impacted growth metrics, reducing gross loan growth by 1.1% year-on-year. The cost of risk is expected to increase to 2% in 2026, reflecting a change in asset mix and potential macroeconomic challenges. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with AVAL. Is AVAL fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Q: Could you repeat the guidance, focusing on general loan growth and ROE for 2025 and 2026? Also, are the contributions from trading and other operating income sustainable?A: For 2025, we expect loan growth of 4.5%, with retail loans growing at 8.5% and commercial loans at 2%. For 2026, we anticipate 8% loan growth, with retail at 9% and commercial at 7%. The trading income has been strong, but we had a particularly strong performance from Porvenir this quarter. We expect positive performance to continue, but this quarter was exceptional. The NIM on loans is improving, and we are working on a better asset and liability mix to support this trend. Q: What are the expected levels for cost of risk and ROE for 2025 and 2026?A: For 2025, we expect a cost of risk of 1.9% and an ROE of 10.5%. For 2026, the cost of risk is projected at 2%, with an ROE between 12% and 12.5%. Q: Regarding asset quality, what are your expectations for cost of risk and coverage levels going forward?A: For next year, we expect the cost of risk to remain around 2%, reflecting the end of the recovery cycle. Coverage levels are not a target but a result of provisions and write-off policies. We focus more on new PDL formation, which has shown consistent improvement. Q: How should we think about the synergies from Aval Valor Compartido and their impact on efficiency ratios and ROE in 2026?A: We are in the early stages of Aval Valor Compartido, focusing initially on administrative processes. There are restructuring costs involved, which may delay net results. We expect to see more impact as we move into back-office and operational processes next year. The cost to assets is expected to increase due to inflation and wage pressures. Q: What was the impact on interest expenses this quarter, particularly regarding interbank borrowings?A: The increase in interest expenses is due to a larger position in FX, financed with repos. This is tied to a larger positive carry on the balance sheet, reflecting increased volume and investment in securities. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
TranscriptFY2025 Q32025-11-13FY2025 Q3 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 28 paragraphs
FY2025 Q3 earnings call transcript
Welcome to Grupo Aval's Third Quarter 2025 Consolidated Results Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. Grupo Aval is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulation in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulations. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as holding company of the Aval Financial conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Unconsolidated financial information of our subsidiaries in the Colombian banking system are presented in accordance with Colombian IFRS as reported, the Superintendency of Finance. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential or continue or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates, and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report. The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable, in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. [Operator Instructions] With us today are Ms. María Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Diego Solano, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Jorge Castaño, Corporate VP of Financial Assets and Efficiencies; Mrs. Paula Durán, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Projects; Mr. Jorge Otalvaro, VP of Synergies at Aval Valor Compartido; and Mr. Camilo Pérez, Banco de Bogota's Chief Economist. I will now turn the call over to Ms. María Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. María Lorena Gutiérrez Botero, you may begin.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2025 conference call. I am here with Diego Solano, our CFO; Jorge Castaño, Corporate VP of Financial Assets and Efficiencies; Paula Durán, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Projects; Jorge Otalvaro, VP of Synergies at Aval Valor Compartido; and Camilo Pérez, Chief Economist of Banco de Bogota. This quarter, we reached a year-to-date net income of COP 1.4 trillion, 88% higher than the same period of 2024. Net income for the quarter was COP 521 billion, the highest quarter figure in 3 years, growing 25.3% over the year and 5.3% over the quarter. This performance reflects a strong net interest income as continued improvement in [indiscernible] loans, a pickup in loan growth and the results of our cost [indiscernible] efforts. Before addressing our financial performance, I will share the progress made in some of our strategic projects. First, our banks have continued working on improving their deposit mix towards retail funding. We launched accounts and saving pockets with a special remuneration rate and repositioning our bank's favorable account value proposition to both individuals and business. We also introduced product offerings to face increased competition, including short-term deposits and savings accounts with competitive rates. As a result of the above, peso-denominated deposits from individuals grew 22% over the year with saving and checking accounts growing 11% and term deposits 31%. Second, in addition to deposits, our efforts to deepen our presence in the consumer segment considers increasing our share of lending products where we are underweight and revamping our payment value proposition. We aim to increase our market share in credit cards where we have a space to grow. On this front, we entered an alliance with Visa that grant us exclusivity in Colombia for the FIFA World Cup. Third, on October 6, the Central Bank immediate payment system officially started operations, offering every day at any time instant and free transfers. This system will reduce the use of cash and promote financial inclusion. In Colombia, 75% of monetary transactions are with cash. We estimate these numbers could go down to 55% in future years, considering Brazil's peak experience. Given this opportunity in September 2025, we launched Gou Payments, our own instant payments with world-class infrastructure that will improve our time to market and offer innovative, safe and user-friendly solutions. Fourth, as we mentioned in the past, we are simplifying our processes through transversal initiatives, capturing value in our operational and administrative processes. This effort is based upon our main guiding principle, our external and internal customers go first. I will now invite Jorge Otalvaro to go into more detail on Gou Payments and our synergies plan executed through Aval Valor Compartido. Jorge?
Thank you, María Lorena. Good morning. At Grupo Aval, we are fully committed to driving the immediate payment system led by Central Bank in Colombia. Gou Payments will serve as our payment platform for the group's entities and will also enable fintechs, trust companies, and other players to connect the payment system where our value proposition is autonomy, differentiation, and agility in time to market with the Central Bank across all channels. Our strategy includes strength of the processing capabilities, traditional and instant payments, and clearing house services for Aval Banks and third parties. We are ready to launch innovative solutions that deliver a competitive edge, including interoperability for account-to-account merchants and payments, advanced capabilities in cash management, payment collections, QR solutions and open ecosystem for third parties. Our 4 banks [indiscernible] were the first and only players in Colombia, offering seamless credit cash transfers via WhatsApp, merging into our clients' day-to-day habits and offering an easy experience. We will measure success by the impact on cash reduction and the adoption of services by new clients, prioritizing cash management and excellence in B2B services. Let me mention our performance during the first month of credit, more than 8 million keys to individuals, 62% of them which are Tag Aval, the only customizable alphanumeric key in the market, more than 10 million transactions. We also have a market share over 45% in merchant keys with more than 1 million keys. And finally, we processed more than 10 million transactions with a total amount of COP 2 trillion. Now let me share our results on synergies and efficiencies at Aval Valor Compartido, AVC. In 2025, we focused on identifying potential synergies and implementing action plans to capture efficiencies through standardization and process mastering while raising productivity and control standards. After analyzing 30 administrative and operational processes, we initially selected 8 key processes for our synergy model. Administrative processes include procurement, property management, facility management, talent acquisition, payroll and physical security, currently serving Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Aval Valor Compartido, and Gou Payments. Other entities will be incorporated in the coming months. A second wave to be launched next year will focus on operational synergies, particularly in back office banking processes and IT synergies such as cloud, data center operations, and optimization of our physical channel network. Some of the key achievements in 2025 are 40% reduction in procurement cycle time, 50% simplification of active contracts, and we also launched the Aval Real Estate portal, and we could by 2/3 the commercialization times for other real estate owned. In cybersecurity, we designed the cybersecurity synergy strategy, prioritizing the security operational center, SOC and the centralization of the critical tools. The SOC service points coverage increased from 16 to 23 connected companies. We also launched the Aval talent portal that will reduce 20% in real time to hire. Finally, talking about ATMs and banking agents, we are the first to implement Near Field Communication, NFC technology in Colombia, and we developed also a machine learning model to optimize coverage of Aval Bank's physical service points. Thank you all for your attention. Maria Lorena.
Thank you, Jorge. Last year, we announced the acquisition of Corficolombiana share in the trust company and the broker deal, and we launched Aval Fiduciaria while simultaneously creating Aval Investment Banking. We are now moving into the second phase by integrating the trust funds, trust state and fidiciary, separation of Fiduciaria Bogotá, Fiduciaria Occidente, Fiduciaria Popular into Aval Fiduciaria. With this strategy, Aval further expanding its leadership in the asset and wealth management business in Colombia and abroad. Now I invite Jorge Castaño, our VP, to share with you our advancements and perspective in the Aval Asset Management business. Jorge?
Thanks, María Lorena, and good morning, all of you. As María Lorena mentioned before, this operation is part of our extended corporate strategy aimed at improving operational efficiency, diversifying revenue streams and strengthening our competitive position in key markets as the non-banking financial services. The initiative is expected to deliver meaningful financial and operational benefits over time, supporting sustainable growth and resilience in an evolving economic environment. Aval Fiduciaria is set to become the largest fiduciary in Colombia by assets under management with COP 201 trillion and the leading institution in fee income with 21% of the market share. The company will oversee more than 5,500 trust funds and diversify our range of products and services, serving retail, small and medium enterprise, corporate and institutional clients. Through Aval Casa de Bolsa, we will strengthen our capabilities in fixed income, equities, derivatives, and FX markets, enhancing long-term value creation and consolidating our leadership in the Colombian financial sector. Next year, Aval Fiduciaria will continue to strengthen its position in the fiduciary market. We expect to increase our share of total industry fees and consolidate our position as the #1 player. In 2026, fee income is projected to grow around 13.2% versus 2025, exceeding COP 635 billion, [indiscernible]. We also expect tailwinds from deepening of the commercial model with Banco de Bogotá and Banco de Occidente and implementation of the new integrated commercial model with our other banks. By business line, we are targeting funds fee growth of 20%, explained by increase in assets under management, well above the sector's expected 12.7% and administration growth of 15.4% compared with 7.1% for the industry, supporting our ability to capture superior value in 2026. This transaction will also unify fiduciary risk management policies and operational processes and importantly, enhance commercial synergies across our other business segments. In addition, we expect to capture cost efficiencies in the medium term. We are working to strengthen Aval Fiduciaria's product portfolio and customer service. We will have an integrated commercial model in coordination with our 4 banks across the country as well as with Porvenir and Aval Casa de Bolsa. Their offering also incorporates cash management solutions and offshore investment access via digital platforms and corresponding agreements in Panama and the USA. The integration also accelerates the rollout of enhanced digital investment channels, enable better penetration across retail, small and middle enterprise and corporate clients and supporting a materially higher distribution capacity across Grupo Aval's client base. The transaction has already received regulatory approval by the financial superintendents and the required corporate approvals are expected to be received by month end. We aim for Aval Fiduciaria to start operation as a single company with unified clients facing challenges by January 2, 2026. That's all from me for now.
Thank you, Jorge. Now Paula will go over our sustainability achievements for this quarter. Paula?
Thank you, María Lorena, and good morning, everyone. The most relevant sustainability highlights for Grupo Aval in the quarter includes the definition of our sustainable strategy with a vision that further connects our business goals to our ESG impact. We call it sustainable ROE, R for returns with purpose, O for opportunities for all, and E for environmental value. Across all three pillars, we have defined specific goals and actions in close collaboration with our entities. Starting with our returns with purpose pillar, this quarter, all our entities participated in the CSA assessment of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. Results will be released at the end of the year, but preliminary scores already reflect significant progress compared to global industry leaders. During the quarter, we also received several recognitions for our sustainability achievements. Banco de Bogota, Corficolombiana, and Promigas were included by [indiscernible] Colombia among the 50 leading companies in sustainability for this year. Additionally, the Global Compact Network Colombia announced the Sustainable Development Best Practices Award where Banco de Bogota, Corficolombiana, and Promigas won in five different categories: gender equality, climate actions, reduced inequalities, and decent work, and economic growth. In terms of sustainable finance, we continue to achieve strong results. Our sustainable portfolio reached COP 35 trillion with 78% representing our social portfolio and 22% our green portfolio. In line with our commitment to the energy transition and the development of resilient infrastructure in Colombia, we have consolidated our position as a leading player in the structuring and financing of major projects nationwide. Under the leadership of Aval Banca de Inversión, Banco de Bogotá and Banco de Occidente participated in the financing of the [indiscernible], a landmark infrastructure project connecting [indiscernible] with the Porto International Airport expected to generate over 2,000 direct jobs. Additionally, Grupo Aval led the COP 1.9 trillion refinancing for the [indiscernible]. We're also leaders in financing of social projects that incorporate more than 800,000 panels, expanding clear energy generation and strengthening the country's renewable infrastructure. Moving to the opportunities for all pillar, quarterly highlights include our participation in the Vamos Pa’lante 2025 campaign led by University of Los Andes and W Radio to support young people from vulnerable backgrounds to complete their university studies. All of our entities, branches and ATMs are open for donation to the campaign, which is expected to benefit 1,200 students through university scholarships. Our entities also continued advancing social programs focused on financial inclusion, education, SMEs and productive projects. Our progress on diversity, equity, and inclusion was also recognized by [indiscernible] ranking, where three of our companies were ranked among the top 10 in Colombia in their categories. Regarding our flagship social initiative, Misión La Guajira, we continue delivering on our commitment. Since its launch 1.5 years ago, we have brought water, energy, and connectivity to vulnerable communities, benefiting more than 21,000 people and 3,000 families across 80 communities. On the environmental balance front, during this quarter, we defined Grupo Aval's climate strategy, which establishes a comprehensive road map to strengthen the management of risks and impacts associated with climate change. The strategy adopts IFRS 2 guidelines and TNFD recommendations in line with the financial superintendence of Colombia's regulation with clear goals to reduce emissions by 51% by 2030 and to promote carbon neutrality by 2050. We reaffirm our commitment to a low-carbon economy aligned with the Paris Agreement and Colombia's National sustainability objectives. It is also worth noting that beyond our entity's individual progress [indiscernible] became the first bank in Latin America to report under the TNFD standards, assessing the impact of its operational nature. In conclusion, we continue delivering across all ESG dimensions, remaining firmly committed to achieving a sustainable ROE, proving that profitability and sustainability are not competing goals for two sides of the same vision, creating lasting value for people, for the planet and for the country. Thank you.
Thank you, Paula. Now moving to the macro environment. Let me share some key trends affecting our business. Monthly data indicates that in the third quarter, the Colombian economy continued to perform positively, primarily driven by increased household demand. The main sectors driven growth remain public administration, entertainment and e-commerce. Looking ahead, we expect GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. This inflation has stalled. Inflation reached 5.1% in October, surpassing the 2024 year-end figure of 5.2%. We now expect inflation to close at 5.3% in 2025 and 4.2% in next year. This view incorporates an upward pressure in the coming months, particularly driven by ongoing minimum wage discussions. The fiscal environment remains challenging. The government approved the 2026 national budget at COP 546.9 trillion. However, this lacks a clear path back to the fiscal rule suspended this year. Analysts project a fiscal deficit of minus 7.5% of GDP in 2025, worse than 7.1% forecast in the medium-term fiscal framework. In September, the Central Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 9.25%, maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent inflationary pressures. We expect rates to remain steadily through early 2026 with cost begins in the second quarter of 2026, ending the year at 8.25%. Camilo will now elaborate on our economic outlook. Camilo?
Thank you, María Lorena. Good morning to all attendees. In the third quarter, the Colombian economy extended its upward trend to such an extent that annual growth rate is estimated to be around 3% for this quarter, a high since 2022. Domestic demand continued to explain its strong performance of local activity. Consumer companies returned to positive territory and has now been trending upwards for more than 2 years, while the national unemployment rate reached its lowest level ever for a third quarter, averaging 8.5% -- coupled with solid household income, both from employment and unemployment sources, Colombians continue to increase their consumption, especially of goods, which has also been supported by credit. Consumer loans reached their highest annual growth rate since 2023 in the third quarter. Furthermore, the increased domestic demand has also been supported by a high influx of tourists with more than 7 million visitors so far this year through August, a record high. For its part, government current and investment spending grew in real terms by more than 3% in the third quarter, also supporting economic activity. In this context, the best-performing economic sectors continue to be those most dependent on demand from both residents and nonresidents as well as the public sector, such as commerce, entertainment, transportation, accommodation, manufacturing, food services, and finance. On the export side, the best results are seen in coffee, processed foods, gold, bananas, and textiles, especially leather, which offset the decline observed in oil and coal exports. Regarding investment, the persistent lag in construction, especially buildings continues to hinder the sector's potential improvement, which is only supported by civil works, machinery, equipment, and biological resources investment. The investment recovery could improve after 2026 elections if uncertainty dissipates. Given this context, but acknowledging global risks and the local electoral cycle, the 2025 growth projection remains at 2.7%, close to the potential level and higher than the figures for 2023 and 2024. For 2026, the economy could improve to 2.8% growth. Turning to prices. This inflation process stalled in the third quarter with inflation reaching 5.2% in September, the same level as the year-end figure for 2024. In October, inflation increased to 5.5%. Inflationary pressures have persisted in food due to higher input costs, goods due to increased domestic demand, and non-rental services due to higher labor costs resulting from the minimum wage adjustment, the implementation of the labor reform and the reduction of the working hours per week. In this scenario, inflation is expected to end 2025 around 5.3%, above the 2024 level. As a consequence and pending the definition of the 2026 wage, the Central Bank has kept its benchmark interest rate stable at 9.25%. This level could remain for much of 2026 if inflation and its expectations do not show significant improvement. For the time being, interest rates remain restricted as the Central Bank acknowledges this, especially for investment. While for households, a limited impact is expected since the positive trend in consumption is based mainly on resources other than credit. On the fiscal front, favorable global financial conditions for emerging economies, debt management operations and stronger normal GDP growth will reduce interest payments to between 3.2% and 3.8% of GDP compared to the 4.7% of GDP projected in the medium-term fiscal framework. However, the primary deficit, which excludes interest payments, will approach historical highs, exceeding 3% of GDP and above the 2.4% projected for the world. If this occurs, the deficit will only be surpassed by those observed during the local crisis at the end of the 1990s and the pandemic. Despite the challenging state of the public finances between the end of June and September, the exchange rate fell from COP 4,102 per dollar to COP 3,970 per dollar, following the global weakening of the dollar. Furthermore, the government's monetization of dollars obtained from operations with international banks, the total return swap and external bond issuances led the Colombian peso to become the best performing currency in Latin America. Given that the government still has dollar excess balances and expects to issue new bonds for up to COP 5 billion and obtain direct credit from international banks for up to $1 billion, monetization will continue to impact the exchange rate. Ultimately, these flows would offset the effects of electoral uncertainty, which is expected to increase as the elections approach. Finally, the current account deficit is expected to widen from minus 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to minus 2.6% of GDP in 2025, driven by a stronger recovery in imports than exports, both in goods and services where terms of trade would be affected by lower commodity prices. It is important to note that for the first time ever, remittances surpassed oil exports as the economy's main source of foreign currency. This further strengthens the diversification of the export basket. To sum it up, it is important to highlight that we are currently at the beginning of the congressional and presidential elections, which will be held in the first half of 2026. It is too early to draw conclusions about the election results, but the economic scenarios are based on the expectation that Colombia will have a government that will need to be more fiscally disciplined, promote private investment by reducing uncertainty and generally make public policy decisions that promote economic growth. That will be all for my part.
Thank you. Thank you, Camilo. Moving to financial results. Our financial performance continued to improve with net income for the quarter reaching COP 521 billion, resulting in an 11.5% return on equity. The improvement throughout this cycle has been driven by consistent positive trends in the core business metrics of our banking segment. In addition, Porvenir was a strong contributor to our quarterly results. Gross loans and deposits grew 2.1% and 0.4% over the quarter, reaching 4.6% and 8.5% over 12 months. Consumer loans had the strongest quarterly growth in 10 quarters at 1.5%. As we had anticipated in our last call, commercial loan dynamics recovered significantly, growing 2.1% during the quarter. The strong performance in commercial lending includes benefits from the joint efforts of our banks with Aval Banca [indiscernible]. Peso-denominated commercial loans grew 3.1% over the quarter, the fastest pace in the last 8 quarters. Given our exposure to U.S. dollar-denominated loans, the 3.6% appreciation of the peso over the quarter had a negative impact on growth metrics. Our net interest income grew 11.6% to COP 2.9 trillion during the quarter, while our net interest margin improved to 4.3%, incorporating a consolidated NIM on loans of 4.6%. 90 days PDLs were 3.7%, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2022. Our cost of risk for the quarter was 1.9%. During the quarter, our investment portfolios performed well, driving NIM over investment. The performance of Porvenir's stabilization reserve during the quarter was struck. Now I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give you our results. Diego?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will start on Pages 12 and 13 with a few charts showing the growth rate and quality of our loan portfolio relative to the rest of the Colombian banking system. For comparability reasons, these are on consolidated figures under Colombian IFRS as published by the Superintendency of Finance. Starting on Page 11 for the 12 months ending in August 2025 commercial loans and mortgages for the system grew 0.8% and 5.8% in real terms, while consumer loans contracted 2.4% in real terms. Year-on-year, our Aval Banks gained 56 basis points of market share in consumer loans, 188 basis points for mortgages and last 77 basis points in commercial loans. This yielded year-on-year market share losses of 9 basis points in total loans. For the last 3 months, loans grew 1.6% in the system. This market growth begins to show signs of recovery, considering a 0.8% partly inflation. Mortgages grew 2.8% and commercial loans, 1.1% in nominal terms over the quarter, while consumer loans maintained their growth trajectory with 1.7% increase for the quarter. On Page 12. Loan quality for both the system and the Aval Banks showed an improvement during the quarter in most loan categories. Our banks continue to exhibit better loan portfolio quality than the system in gross loans, mortgage loans and consumer loans. I will now move to the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS. On Page 13, assets grew 7.2% year-on-year and 2.4% over the quarter to COP 344 trillion. Fixed income investments, which account for 17% of our assets reached COP 58 trillion, growing 24% year-on-year and 9.3% during the quarter. Gross loans, which account for 59% of our assets reached COP 203 trillion, growing 4.6% year-on-year and 2.1% over the quarter. Growth metrics were affected by the 3.6% appreciation of the Colombian peso spike during the quarter and 6.1% over 12 months. This peso appreciation reduced gross loan growth in 1.1 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Peso-denominated loans that account for 84% of gross loans grew 6.1% year-on-year and 2.8% during the quarter. While dollar-denominated loans, which account for 16% of gross loans grew 3.4% year-on-year and 1.8% in the quarter in dollar terms. Given the appreciation of the Colombian peso, our dollar-denominated loans contracted 2.9% year-on-year and 1.8% quarter-on-quarter in peso terms. Although retail loans continued to drive our growth, commercial loans have shown positive signs for the quarter. Consumer loans grew 4.1% year-on-year and 1.5% in the quarter. [ Gross ] loans growth continues to recover, increasing 4.4% year-on-year and 1.1% during the quarter. While personal loans grew 7.6% year-on-year and 4% during the quarter. Auto loans 1.9% year-on-year and 0.1% during the quarter; and finally, credit cards contracting 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% during the quarter. Mortgages where we continue to be underweighted grew 18% year-on-year and 3.5% over quarter. Finally, commercial loans expanded 2.2% year-on-year and 2.1% during the quarter, this incorporates a negative impact of the peso appreciation of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. We expect our 2025 loan growth to be in the 4.5% area incorporating a negative effect of the peso appreciation on a dollar-denominated loans. On Page 14, we present the evolution of funding and deposits. Total funding increased 8.1% year-on-year and 2.9% during the quarter. Total bank borrowings grew 19% year-on-year, in line with the expansion of our investment portfolio and account for 8.8% of total funding. Deposits that account for around 3/4 of our funding grew 8.5% year-on-year or 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. Our deposits to net loan ratio closed at 109%. On Page 15, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our attributable shareholders' equity and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Our total equity increased 2.9% in the quarter and 5.6% year-on-year, while our attributable equity increased 3.7% during the quarter and 5.9% year-on-year. Total solvency and Tier 1 ratio evidenced an increase in all of our banks. On Page 16, we present our NIMs. Net interest income reached COP 2.9 trillion, increasing 20.6% year-on-year and 11.6% during the quarter, driving -- driven by the strong performance of our trading investment income. Part of the quarterly net interest income was offset by hedging and derivatives that I will comment later, when covering other income. Total NIM increased 35 basis points to 4.35% quarter-on-quarter. Our consolidated NIM on loans expanded 21 basis points year-on-year and contracted 6 basis points during the quarter to 4.4%, while NIM on investments improved to 4.13%. NIM on loans incorporates a 60 basis points year-on-year expansion of NIM on retail loans to 5.9% and a 13 basis points year-on-year contraction of NIM on commercial loans to 3.28%. Focusing on our banking segments. The NIM on loans was 4.88%, materially stable year-on-year. This incorporates a 41 basis points year-on-year increase in NIM on retail loans to 6.4% and a 39 basis point year-on-year decrease in NIM on commercial loans to 3.72%. The total NIM of our banking segment expanded 17 basis points from the quarter to 4.74% due to the same dynamics that affected our consolidated NIM. On Page 17, we present our yields on loans, cost of funds and spreads. On a consolidated basis, the average yield on loans for the quarter decreased 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 11.7%, while the average 3-month IBR fell 6 basis points to 9.2%. Our consolidated cost of deposits remained relatively flat during the period, while our cost of funds slightly increased by 7 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 6.83%. The increase in the cost of funds is mainly attributable to a higher repo position related to our fixed income business. Finally, the Central Bank CapEx policy rate unchanged at 9.25% throughout the third quarter and a persistent inflationary pressures. We expect this level to remain over the following few quarters with rate cuts beginning by the end of 2026. On Pages 18 through 20, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios. Starting on Page 18, loan pay portfolio quality further strengthened during the quarter. PDL metrics continued to improve in all categories. 30-day PDL formation for the quarter reached COP 1.083 trillion, 23% lower than for third quarter 2024. 30-day PDLs were 4.64%, a 17 basis points improvement over 3 months and 113 basis points improvement over 12 months. 90-day PDLs were 3.37%, a 15 basis point improvement in the quarter and a 93 basis point improvement over 12 months. Commercial 30-day PDLs were 4.29% and 8 basis points improvement quarter-on-quarter and 110 basis points year-on-year. 90-day PDLs were 3.69%, an 18% improvement over the quarter and 105 basis points over the year. Consumer 30-day PDLs improved 39 basis points for the quarter and 136 basis points year-on-year to 4.68%, while 90-day PDLs improved 13 basis points during the quarter and 84 basis points year-on-year to 2.71%. Mortgages 30-day PDLs and 90-day PDLs improved 2 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively, over the quarter. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-PDLs was 0.71x. On Page 20, coverage measured as allowances for Stages 2 and 3 as a percentage of Stages 2 and 3 loans was 31.9%, increasing 38 basis points relative to a quarter earlier. The shareable portfolio classified as Stage 1 grew to 89.1%, while Stage 3 fell for a fourth consecutive quarter to 5.8%, driven by improvements across all portfolios. On Page 20, cost of risk net of recoveries slightly increased this quarter to 1.9% in line with our expectations for the year. We expect 2025 cost of risk to be in the 1.9% area. Cost of risk net of recoveries from consumer loans improved 33 basis points to 3.9%. This includes a 41 basis point improvement in personal loans and to 7.7% while cost of risk for payroll loans was 1.9%. Cost of risk net for commercial loans was 1%. On Page 21, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income grew 11.8% year-on-year and 7.5% quarter-on-quarter. Net fee income increased 11.5% and 8%, respectively, over these time periods. Both pensions and trust fees increased over the quarter due to high performance-based management fees driven by positive returns on financial markets. Banking fees increased 4.7% above growth -- loan growth. Our income from the nonfinancial sector was 88% of that reported in third quarter 2024 due to lower -- a lower contribution from the infrastructure sector. Finally, on the bottom of the page, the quarter-on-quarter decrease in operating income is mainly driven by derivatives and FX losses of COP 211 billion. These were mainly explained by hedging strategies of trading income in around our fixed income instruments. On Page 22, we present some efficiency ratios. Cost to assets for the quarter was 2.7%, including 9 basis points relative to a quarter earlier and increased 9 basis points year-on-year. Our quarterly cost-to-income improved 124 basis points to 50.7% over the quarter driven by the positive performance of our NIM. Quarterly expenses fell 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and grew 10.3% year-on-year. General and administrative expenses fell 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and reached 16% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase was driven by operating taxes, which account for 26% of this category and explain 7.9 percentage points of the year-on-year growth in administrative expenses. Personnel expenses grew 1.4% over the quarter and 4.8% year-on-year, well below the 9.5% increase in Colombia's minimum wage. Finally, on Page 23, we present our net income and portfolio ratios. Attributable net income for the quarter was COP 521 billion or COP 21.9 per share, increasing 25.3% relative to the third quarter of 2025, the highest since second quarter 2023. Our return on average assets and return on average equity for the quarter were 1% and 11.5%, respectively. I will now summarize our general guidance for 2025 and 2026. For 2025, we expect return on average equity to be in the 10.5% area with loan growth in the 4.5% area with commercial loans growing in the 2% area and retail loans growing 8.5% area. This incorporates an expected negative impact of the peso appreciation of 2 percentage points on commercial loan growth. We expect our consolidated NIM in the 4% area with NIM on loans in the 4.5%. NIM of our banking segment in the 4.6% area with NIM on loans in the 5.1% area. Cost of risk net of recoveries in the 1.9% area cost of assets in the 2.75% area, income from the nonfinancial sector of 85% for that of 2024 and fee income ratio in 21%. Now moving to our initial view for 2026. We expect loan growth in the 8% area with commercial loans growing at 7% in retail loans growing at 9%. Total NIM in the 4.3% area with NIM on loans in the 5.2% area. NIM of the banking segment is the 5% area with NIM on loans for banking segment is in the 5.6% area. Cost of risk net of recoveries in the 2% area cost to assets in the 2.8% area, income from the nonfinancial sector of 1.3x that for 2025, a fee income ratio of only 1%. Finally, we expect our 2026 return on average equity to be in the 12.5% -- in the 12% to 12.5% range.
Thank you, Diego. Finally, looking ahead, 2026 will be challenging for Colombian businesses, particularly during the first part of the year. The electoral cycle will bring political uncertainties that can be expected to bring volatility in the financial markets and delay investment decisions. In addition, the market consensus anticipates a high Central Bank real integration rate to prevail incorporate fiscal balance concerns and inflationary pressures due to a high minimum wage increase. Even though we recognize this to be a challenging environment, we remain positive for the continued recovery of the industry in which we operate. This view is supported on expectation of a sustainment sustained expansion of economic activity, a stable labor market, a slight improvement in asset quality, a reduction in average cost of funds relative to the year and opportunities for further banking penetration resulting from the introduction of Bre-B. In addition, we are working hard and focused on unlocking fundamental value supported on our strategic pillars. First, we expect to improve our presence in loans and deposits in the retail segment adding to the segment and businesses where we already lead, which will result in improvement in NIM and further growth. We continue working on improving the alignment of the strategy and the culture of our banks around a more client-centric experience further differentiation in target segments and products of each one of the business units as well as the redesign and centralization of key processes in Aval Valor Compartido, APC. We expect these elements to translate into a better customer experience, shorter innovation cycles and time to market and more competitiveness in our cost structure. We are committed to having a positive impact on the community and those we serve without losing focus on commercial and financial performance. Finally, regarding year-to-date share price performance, the price of our preferred shares has increased by 82%, 1.6x that of the [indiscernible]. Our ADR increased by 116%, 10.3x that of the Standard & Poor's 500. We are evaluating several options to further liquidity of our local shares and our ADR. On this front, we reached an agreement with JPMorgan. The depository bank of our ADR program to reduce by 80% the conversion cost of the issuance and cancellation of the ADRs in the United States. This measure will be effective starting next Monday, November '17 through next month and year April '17, 2026. So now we are open to questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank.
The first question is more of a request. If you could repeat the guidance, I think you focus only on general loan growth and ROE for '25 and '26. It would be great. I try to catch it, but honestly, I have bad hearing. So apologies on that. On the second point, I wanted to ask you on the contribution from trading and other operating income. Do you think these levels are sustainable because we have seen good contribution from these lines in the second quarter and also in this third quarter. So just if we can think about these levels on a recurring basis. And my last question on your NIM profile. It seems the NIM on loans declining, but also the NIM in investments is increasing very healthily. So also, how recurring do you think this is?
Brian, I think those are great questions. Let me start with the easiest and just to recap our loan growth guidance. For this year, we are guiding to 4.5% with retail loans growing at 8.5% and 2% and that 2% includes a relevant negative impact of FX over our U.S. dollar-linked loans. For next year, we're guiding into 8% with a similar growth on the retail front, retail growing at 9% and commercial growing at 7%. 7% built in a seeing a combination of not having the negative impact and eventually having a positive income from FX and then reflecting growth over the past few months and I would say over the past quarters recovering on that front. Then I think questions 2 and 3 are linked and we're thinking on how to better transmit this to you guys. On the training front, you have to read 3 lines, when you look at our numbers. You have to look at what is happening in net interest margin, what is happening on the trading income and what is happening on the derivatives front. That's why I emphasized during the call that we had a negative effect from derivatives that affected the results and the fixed income front. What I'm gearing to is when you take into account those lines, our performance has been strong. However, given that we are conservative there and we go hedged, we are trying to lock in the kind of returns that we're looking into. The area where we had an upside during this quarter was we had a very strong performance from Porvenir. We expect to continue seeing positive performance from Porvenir, but this was a particularly strong quarter. So all in all, that is going on in the numbers. And the other question that you asked regarding the trends of peso of loans and investments having built an effect of having grown our fixed income portfolio that is in a relevant portion financed with repos. So we didn't want to change our methodology. But if you earmark the cost of those repos to fixed income, you see a better performance on the loan side, however, for comparability. We didn't want to move things around in each one of the quarters. To try to -- to get to the substance of your question, what we're seeing is we are seeing an improvement in pricing of loans and actually something that is built into our guidance is we are working on improving our mix, both on the asset side and on the liability side. So you see in the guidance, we are guiding into a better number for NIM for next year, but also a slightly worse number on the cost of risk side that what that is doing is it's bringing in that we've been growing more on some of the products that we haven't grown in the past, and we're making a richer mix on the asset side. We're doing basically the same on the liability side, where we're growing our deposits from the retail base from individuals that is helping us progressively and is built into those numbers. So bottom line, we are positive on the evolution of NIM. It's still shy of what were the stable numbers we used to run on before we saw this long cycle because of the Central Bank policy. But a lot of this is growth that is not dependent on Central Bank policy, what we're building in our numbers. Sorry for the long explanation, I think your questions were very relevant to understand how we're looking into the future.
No, it was very helpful. If I can, just a very quick follow-up. Can you repeat please the levels of cost of risk and ROE for both '25 and '26?
ROE for this year, 10.5% area and for next year, 12% to 12.5% range. And cost of risk for this year, 1.9% and for next year, 2%.
Our next question will come from the line of Diego Marquez with JPMorgan.
So just a quick follow-up there on asset quality. So we're seeing most metrics improving cost of risk down at 1.9%, similar to what you guided. Just to get a sense on what you [indiscernible] to reach and what you expect going forward? And also a quick question on coverage. So we saw stable 90-day NPLs ratios of 130%. So what level should we work with going forward? Do you expect this to continue?
Could you repeat your second question? I'm sorry, I'm not sure I caught it.
Yes. Just on coverage. So we saw levels of 130% it has been stable for the 90-day NPLs. So just going forward, what level should we expect?
Okay. And your first question, I have to be shortsighted on the answer to this one because it's very macro dependent. For next year, we're looking in this area of cost of risk that built in that we're closer to ending the cycle of recovery. So that's why we are not including any substantial improvement or any relevant improvement in cost of risk as a measure. It depends very much on how further years look like, what our sustainable costs of risks would look like. But -- what this built in is a growth, shy of 3% for GDP in Colombia, a stable labor market and a slight reduction in rates by the end of next year that should support that kind of level with a change in mix towards these kind of assets that I mentioned before then the coverage side is very much mechanics and how you provision under full IFRS. So it's not a target. It's a result -- it depends on how our different stages are behaving, therefore, what kind of provisions we're making and our write-off policies. So this basically is destroying that I would pay much more attention on a new PDL formation, where you can anticipate how things are going to evolve into the future where the trend has been consistently positive for our banks.
Our next question will come from the launch of Daniel Mora with CrediCorp Capital.
I have a questions. First 1 is regarding OpEx and efficiency ratios. How should we think about the synergies coming from a Valor Compartido. What will be the targeted efficiency ratio and the potential impact on ROE in 2026 and the years ahead, because if I'm not mistaken, it seems that the guidance of cost to assets suggest an increase from 2.5% to 2.8%. I would like to understand if OpEx will be in line with inflation or above or below? That would be my first question. And the second 1 is very short, is I would like to understand the impact on interest expenses this quarter, especially the interbank borrowings. I would like to know what was behind that? And if this is one-off or should we expect a similar impact going forward?
Okay. Starting with your last question, I think that's in the line of Brian's question. What we've been doing over the past few quarters is we've been increasing our position in FX and that position is being financed with repos and that's what is driving our repo position. So it has a repo financing that investment in securities plus the derivatives on top where we're locking in some of these results. So the reason why you see more expenses, there is more volume that's the key driver, tied to a larger positive carry on the other side of the balance sheet. Then regarding OpEx, Colombia is facing pressure for next year on the inflation side. We've built into our numbers, a minimum wage increase that could be in the order of 11%. So when you start out with loan growth, that is in the 8% area, and you into account that you have a minimum wage plus inflation ending year at 5.3%, you have a pressure on expenses that begins there. Then the other part of your question, I think, is that the most reliant thinking to the future and it says, we've only begun to work on the Aval Valor Compartido initiative. We started with admin processes. Those processes are being implemented. There are some restructuring costs associated to those that delay in some way, when you start seeing the net result what is being done there. However, as Jorge Otalvaro mentioned, we have a large aspiration there, and we're moving into our next phase where we're going to touch on back office and operational process over next year. And when we have additional information there we can touch back on that to give you a better idea of what we expect to achieve.
And there are no further questions at this time. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, I turn the call back over to you.
Okay. Thank you to your attendance on today's conference call. This is the last time we meet in 2025. So see you next year. And I wish you all a happy holiday season. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year. So thank you for being with us.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-08-14Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and ...
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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and ...
Net Income: COP856 billion for the first half of 2025, 1.7 times higher than the first half of 2024. Quarterly Net Income: COP494.9 billion, the highest in three years, growing 37% over the quarter and 142% year-over-year. Net Interest Margin (NIM): Reached 4% for the first time in three years; consolidated NIM on loans at 4.5%. Cost of Risk: 1.7% for the quarter, 4.81% for the year, the lowest level since Q1 2023. Loan Growth: Loans grew 3.2% year-over-year; deposits grew 6.8%. Deposit Mix Improvement: Peso-denominated deposits held by individuals improved from 16.7% in Q1 2025 to 18.2% in Q2 2025. Assets: Grew 6% over the year and 1.8% on the quarter to COP336 trillion. Loan Portfolio: Consumer loans grew 6% year-on-year; mortgages grew 20% year-on-year. Funding and Deposits: Total funding increased 6.3% year-on-year; deposits grew 6.8% year-on-year. Return on Average Equity (ROAE): 11.3% for the quarter. Return on Average Assets (ROAA): 1.1% for the quarter. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with AVAL. Release Date: August 13, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) reported a net income of COP856 billion for the first half of 2025, which is 1.7 times higher than the first half of 2024. The company's net interest margin reached 4% for the first time in three years, with a consolidated NIM on loans at 4.5%. The cost of risk for the quarter was 1.7%, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2023. Grupo Aval's banks have improved their deposit mix, with peso-denominated deposits held by individuals increasing from 16.7% to 18.2% during the quarter. The company has made significant progress in its sustainability and strategic projects, including advancements in sustainable finance and corporate governance. Loan growth dynamics have been slower than initially anticipated, although activity picked up in June and July. The fiscal outlook for Colombia remains challenging, with the government raising its fiscal deficit estimate to 7.1% for 2025. Intense price competition in the market has led to a loss of market share in commercial loans. The speed of recovery in net interest margins has been modest due to high real central bank interest rates and regulatory changes affecting consumer loan interest rate caps. The company's trading assets h…Read full documentShow less
Net Income: COP856 billion for the first half of 2025, 1.7 times higher than the first half of 2024. Quarterly Net Income: COP494.9 billion, the highest in three years, growing 37% over the quarter and 142% year-over-year. Net Interest Margin (NIM): Reached 4% for the first time in three years; consolidated NIM on loans at 4.5%. Cost of Risk: 1.7% for the quarter, 4.81% for the year, the lowest level since Q1 2023. Loan Growth: Loans grew 3.2% year-over-year; deposits grew 6.8%. Deposit Mix Improvement: Peso-denominated deposits held by individuals improved from 16.7% in Q1 2025 to 18.2% in Q2 2025. Assets: Grew 6% over the year and 1.8% on the quarter to COP336 trillion. Loan Portfolio: Consumer loans grew 6% year-on-year; mortgages grew 20% year-on-year. Funding and Deposits: Total funding increased 6.3% year-on-year; deposits grew 6.8% year-on-year. Return on Average Equity (ROAE): 11.3% for the quarter. Return on Average Assets (ROAA): 1.1% for the quarter. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with AVAL. Release Date: August 13, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) reported a net income of COP856 billion for the first half of 2025, which is 1.7 times higher than the first half of 2024. The company's net interest margin reached 4% for the first time in three years, with a consolidated NIM on loans at 4.5%. The cost of risk for the quarter was 1.7%, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2023. Grupo Aval's banks have improved their deposit mix, with peso-denominated deposits held by individuals increasing from 16.7% to 18.2% during the quarter. The company has made significant progress in its sustainability and strategic projects, including advancements in sustainable finance and corporate governance. Loan growth dynamics have been slower than initially anticipated, although activity picked up in June and July. The fiscal outlook for Colombia remains challenging, with the government raising its fiscal deficit estimate to 7.1% for 2025. Intense price competition in the market has led to a loss of market share in commercial loans. The speed of recovery in net interest margins has been modest due to high real central bank interest rates and regulatory changes affecting consumer loan interest rate caps. The company's trading assets have gained relevance, raising concerns about managing risk and volatility in this segment. Q: Can you provide further color on the cost of risk performance this quarter, and do you see this trend continuing? A: The cost of risk was low this quarter, primarily due to high recoveries rather than lower provisions. While this is positive, we maintain our guidance of 1.95% for the year. This quarter's performance does not change our overall outlook on cost of risk. - Diego Fernando Solano Saravia, CFO Q: What drove the solid performance in other income this quarter? A: Other income was influenced by various factors, including recoveries and some positive income from controversies. These gains were partially offset by higher expenses during the quarter. Overall, we are maintaining our guidance. - Diego Fernando Solano Saravia, CFO Q: How do you see the Net Interest Margin (NIM) evolving in 2025 and 2026 given the slower reduction in the monetary policy rate? A: We are focusing on expanding NIM by changing our mix on both the deposit and loan sides. Despite regulatory changes affecting interest rate caps, we expect NIM on the commercial side to improve as cost of funds decrease. The recovery is slower than anticipated, but we remain positive about future trends. - Diego Fernando Solano Saravia, CFO Q: Can you explain the increase in trading assets on your balance sheet and how you are managing associated risks? A: We are taking advantage of market opportunities, such as exchanges of bonds with the Colombian government, to refresh our portfolios. Additionally, growth in trading assets is linked to our expanding treasury business with clients. Risk management is handled by offsetting client positions, ensuring no additional risk is taken. - Diego Fernando Solano Saravia, CFO Q: Could you repeat the guidance for 2025? A: Our guidance includes an ROE of 10.5%, loan growth of 7%, with commercial loans growing 5% and consumer loans 9%. Consolidated NIM is expected to be around 4%, with the banking segment at 4.7% and loans at 5.3%. Cost of risk is projected at 1.95%, and income from the non-financial sector is expected to be 90% of 2024 levels. - Diego Fernando Solano Saravia, CFO For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
TranscriptFY2025 Q22025-08-13FY2025 Q2 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 17 paragraphs
FY2025 Q2 earnings call transcript
Welcome to Grupo Aval's Second Quarter 2025 Consolidated Results Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (“Grupo Aval”) is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulation in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulations. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as holding company of the Aval financial conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Unconsolidated financial information of our subsidiaries and the Colombian banking system are presented in accordance with Colombian IFRS as reported the Superintendency of finance. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as “may,” will,” “should,” “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “believes, estimates,” “predicts,” “potential,” or “continue,” or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates and other risk described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review update or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward looking statements, and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report. The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. [Operator Instructions] With us today are Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Diego Solano, Chief Financial Officer; Ms. Paula Durán, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Projects; and Mr. Camilo Pérez, Banco de Bogotá's Chief Economist. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, you may begin.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2025 conference call. I am here with Diego Solano, our CFO; Camilo Pérez, Chief Economist of Banco de Bogotá and Paula Durán, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Credit. Let me start. During the first half of the year, we reached a net income of COP 856 billion, 1.7x higher than in the first half of 2024. Net income for the quarter was COP 494.9 billion, the highest quarterly figure in 3 years, growing 37% over the quarter and 142% over the year. Results of our banking segment continue consolidating positive trends in core business metrics. Our net interest margin reached the 4% level for the first time in 3 years with our consolidated NIM on loans at 4.5%. This level of NIM on loans [Technical Difficulty] that we have in the third quarter of 2022. At that time, the average Central Bank stood at 8.83% relative to this quarter's average of 9.3%. The cost of risk for the quarter was 1.7% and yields were 4.81%, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2023. Gross loans grew 3.2% year-over-year, while deposits grew 6.8%. Loan growth dynamics have been softer than we initially anticipated. However, activity has picked up in June and July. Our bank's deployed plans supported growth during the second half of the year, particularly in commercial loans working closely with Aval Banco in Brazil. During the quarter, our investment portfolio performed well, driving an expansion in NIM on investments. The performance of Porvenir stabilization reserve positively contributed to this quarter's results. Now regarding the progress of our strategic priorities, I'd like to highlight a few areas. Our banks have continued working on improving their deposit mix toward retail funding. The share of peso-denominated deposits held by individuals improved during the quarter from 16.7% in the first quarter of this year to 18.2% in the second quarter of 2025. Regarding the payment business, we continue complementing our offer of products and services to individuals and companies through [indiscernible] payment, recently authorized by the Superintendency of Finance as a low-value payment management entity, both for instant payments and traditional payments. This will allow us to accelerate the design and go-to-market to value-added products for our current and potential customers. We are on the track to adopt [indiscernible], the Central Bank instant payment system when it starts operating in September. We have already been certified to [indiscernible] in the centralized directory and in process to be certified for transaction [indiscernible]. On the synergies and efficiencies front, we conducted an analysis of the potential synergies between the processes of Grupo Aval entities. As a result, the first wave of implementation will continue through the second half of the year, focusing on 7 key areas, procurement, talent attraction and selection, payroll management, property management, facility management, physical security and physical challenge management. In the procurement front, we implemented a procurement synergy center, which seeks efficiency, economies of scale and a more competitive and sustainable value chain. This center will operate on an spending base of COP 4.3 trillion, 4,200 contracts and COP 16,000. We expect to capture efficiencies that will result in initial savings more than 10% of a COP 2.1 trillion manageable spending base and a reduction in contracting time of 40%. In talent attraction and selection, we will build a talent management center for Grupo Aval, which will allow us to attract the best talent, accelerate onboarding processes and promote internal mobility. As a significant milestone, next month, we will launch a digital employment platform that will become the largest job opportunity for us in the country. In payroll management, centralization will not only generate operational efficiencies, but also allow us to deploy people and analytics practices across the board. This will give us an integrated view of talent, facilitate identification of trends at the corporate level and improve data-driven decision-making. With this, we would be able to anticipate risks such as talent attrition, risking and killing needs or drops in productivity, among others. This has already been implemented by [indiscernible] Banco de Bogotá and will be rolled out during the year direct to our other 3 Colombian banks. Now I will invite Paula to go over our ESG achievements for this quarter. Paula?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. This quarter, Grupo Aval made significant progress in advancing our ESG agenda. We updated our double materiality assessment with input from 280 stakeholders, identifying 10 priority topics, including economic development, cybersecurity, innovation, sustainable finance, corporate governance, social impact and climate change. Annual goals in these areas are now under review to ensure full alignment with our strategy. In terms of corporate governance, we had significant development. For the first time, we held a joint meeting with the Board of Directors of Grupo Aval and its subsidiaries. The event brought together more than 130 directors for 2 days in May to address global and local challenges, share perspectives and foster collaboration. A key milestone during the event was the launch of the Aval Board of Directors guideline, a guidance framework for good governance, setting principles regarding the roles of Board members, effective and efficient Board management and Board evaluation. We also updated our corporate policies, guidelines and codes, aligning them with international standards and best practices in corporate governance. These updates reinforce the compliance with Colombia's regulatory framework and reaffirm our commitment to ethical transparency and sustainable management. They also sent clear messages to our entity regarding the minimum standards expected in their ESG management. In environment, our entities advanced in implementing the TCF framework supported by global consultancy, ERM, enabling stronger climate risk management and target setting. We also expanded sustainable mobility initiatives with over 5,700 employees adopting low emission transport, avoiding 300 tons of CO2 emissions. In terms of social impact, we fostered collaborative action in the municipality of Ambalema. [indiscernible] joined efforts to promote sustainable tourism, education and sports, while Banco de Bogotá, the financial education initiative positively impacting nearly 500 community members. In addition, we continue delivering on our commitments under the Nisóaajir initiative with 6 new water purification plants reaching a total of 81 communities now benefiting from social energy solutions. We also enabled free Internet [indiscernible] stones and announced new strategic partnerships with Claro Colombia, providing free connectivity to over 70 communities, the government of La Guajira, National Civil Registry and UNICEF, among others. This quarter, we participated in [indiscernible], the largest diversity and inclusion firm in Latin America, offering more than 1,000 job opportunities and contributing to the academic agenda with the participation of Grupo Aval's leaders and HR teams from our entity. Our entities was also recognized among the top 10 of the 2025 ranking of inclusive organizations in Latin America by the Chamber of Diversity. We remain committed to ensuring that ESG is not just a component of our strategy, but a driver of long-term value creation for our stakeholders. Thank you.
Thank you, Paula. Now on the macro side, let me share some relevant developments during this quarter. High frequency data indicates that in the second quarter of the year, the Colombian economy continued to perform positively, driven by increased household demand. The main sectors driving growth remain public administration, entertainment and commerce. For this year, we expect the economy to grow by 2.7%. Inflation reached 4.9% in July 2025, driven by service prices as indexation is still high in rents and other services are pressured by the elevated increase in minimum wage. We estimate that inflation will close this year around 4.9%. Despite the positive inflation outlook, the country's fiscal outlook was driven the Central Bank's policy rate. In July, the Central Bank opted to keep rates unchanged at 9.25%, maintaining a cautious stance due to both external and internal risks. We expect the Central Bank's rate to end 2025 at 8.5%. However, recent information would imply an upward pressure on this figure. The biggest challenge facing the economy is fiscal sustainability. In June, the government triggered the close of the fiscal growth and raised its fiscal deficit estimate to 7.1% for this year, 200 basis points above the original target that was 5.1%. Our estimates point towards a fiscal deficit closer to 8% of GDP. We anticipate pressure on short-term rates to stem from the Ministry of Finance liability management operations and underlying pressures on long-term interest rates to unfold in the upcoming months. Despite rising political noise in the pre-election year, we remain confident in Colombian's economic resilience and encourage the business sector to stay focused on executing their strategy. Camillo, welcome. Camillo will now elaborate on our economic outlook.
Thank you, Maria Lorena. Good morning. In the second quarter, household consumption continued to be the main driver of growth for the global economy. Despite growing domestic and external uncertainty, consumer confidence has reached highest level in 3 years, a situation that has supported domestic demand. This increase in household confidence has been supported by the strength of the labor market, where the unemployment rate reached its lowest level in almost 20 years. Furthermore, alternative sources of income have strengthen. Remittances reached a record high in the second quarter, while coffee and tourism exports continue to rise. In addition to higher incomes, household demand is now being leveraged by credit, which for the first time since 2023 grew during the second quarter. In this context, the best performing economic sectors continue to be those most dependent on private consumption, such as commerce, entertainment, transportation, lodging, manufacturing, food services and finance. Meanwhile, agricultural supply continued to rise due to lower input prices and favorable weather conditions. In fact, all other sectors with the exception of mining, construction and food services experienced an annual growth. In the case of mining and construction, progress in the implementation of public policy key to both sectors explain in part the weak performance. While construction investment in housing and infrastructure is lagging in second quarter, imports of machinery and equipment as well as corporate loans continue to rise, suggesting that the Colombian businesses amid high domestic demand have modestly expanded their investment plans. Given this favorable context by recognizing global risks and the uncertainty leading up to the election next year, economic growth of 2.7% is expected for 2025, close to potential levels and higher than those recorded in 2023 and 2024. Turning to prices. This inflationary process resumed in the second quarter as inflation fell from 5.1% to 4.8% between March and June, its lowest level since October 2021. In July, inflation picked up to 4.9% and no significant gains are expected by the end of the year, which is expected to slightly below 5%, once again, outside the target range set by the Central Bank. Meanwhile, thanks to gains in inflation and its expectations as well as a more complex and global environment towards emerging markets, the Central Bank cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.75% in April. Accumulated gains in inflation and favorable global financial conditions are expected [indiscernible] Central Bank space to cut interest rates to around 8.5% by the end of the year. Nevertheless, recent inflation data in upward pressure on this figure and the Central Bank's move for rate cuts is not broader due to persistent fiscal challenges. In June, with the suspension of the fiscal rule, the government revised its assumed fiscal deficit of 2025 from 5.1% to 7.1% of GDP and for 2026 from 4.3% to 6.2% of GDP, the latter depending on the approval of a tax reform. Given this challenging outlook, Moody's and Standard & Poor's lowered the country's credit rating. The most significant decision came from Standard & Poor's, which not only assigned the country the lowest credit rating of the 3 rating agencies, [indiscernible], but also maintained its negative outlook. Despite the complex fiscal stance between March and June, the exchange rate went from COP 4,181 to COP 4,102 per dollar, following the global weakening of the greenback. In any case, the Colombian peso appreciated against the dollar by only 2% compared to an average of 6.5% for major Latin American economy. For the remainder of the year, the exchange rate will be volatile with competitive forces. As the dollar remains [indiscernible], the country risk premium could be affected by fiscal and electoral pressures. Furthermore, with a widening external deficit, the year-end exchange rate of around COP 4,200 per dollar is expected. Specifically, the current account deficit is forecasted to fall from 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% of GDP in 2025 due to a stronger recovery in imports and exports, both in goods and services, where in terms of trade will be affected by lower commodity prices. This wraps up the macroeconomic outlook. Thank you. Back to you, Maria Lorena.
Thank you, Camillo. Given the economic outlook, let me say that we are pleased to report continued signs of recovery in the Colombian banking system. Loan demand has strengthened with growth in real terms turning positive for the first time in nearly 2 years. Cost of risk continues to trend downward, supporting improved profitability across the system. Only 6 out of 29 banks reported net losses as of May 2025 compared to 11 in the same period last year, highlighting a sustained improvement in financial performance. Now I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give you details on our results. Diego?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will start on Pages 9 and 10 with the charts showing growth rates and quality of portfolio relative to the rest of the Colombian banking system. For comparability reasons, these are on consolidated figures under Colombian IFRS as published by the Superintendency of Finance. Starting on Page 9, on the 4 months ending on May 2025, commercial loans and mortgages on the system grew 1.3% and 4.6% in real terms, while consumer loans contracted 5.1% in real terms. Year-on-year, Aval banks have gained 112 basis points of market share in consumer loans, 206 basis points in mortgages and lost 109 basis points in commercial loans. This yielded year-on-year 10 basis points lower market share in total loans. Our performance in commercial loans was driven by aggressive price competition in the market. Last 3 months, loans grew 1.7% in the system. Even though dynamics continue to show signs of recovery, real growth was stagnant considering the 1.7% quarterly inflation. Mortgages grew 2.3% and commercial loans 1.6% in nominal terms over the quarter, while consumer loans returned to growth with 1.3% increase for the quarter. On Page 10, loan quality for both the system and the Aval banks showed an improvement during the quarter for all loan categories. Our banks continue to activate better or equal loan portfolio quality in the system in all main categories. I will now move to the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS. On Page 11, assets grew 6% over -- year-on-year and 1.8% in the quarter to COP 336 trillion. Gross loans, which account for 57% of our assets reached COP 199.4 trillion, growing 3.2% year-on-year and 0.3% over the quarter. Retail loans have driven our growth. Consumer loans grew 6% year-on-year and 0.5% during the quarter with payroll loans levels recovering increasing 4.8% year-on-year and 0.6% during the quarter, personal loans growing at 4.3% year-on-year and 1% over the quarter, auto loans growing 3.9% year-on- year and contracting 0.9% during the quarter and credit cards contracting 4.7% year-on-year and 0.6% during the quarter. Mortgages, the second part of our retail loans continue or continue to be underweighted, grew 20% year-on-year and 2.8% during the quarter. Finally, commercial loans expanded 0.3% year-on-year and contracted 0.3% over the quarter. Our dynamics during the quarter reflect aggressive price competition from some of our peers. We expect 2025 loan growth to be close to 7%. On Page 12, we present the evolution of funding and deposits. Total funding increased 6.3% year-on-year and 1.5% during the quarter. Deposits that accounts for 3/4 of our funding grew 6.8% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter. Our deposits to net loans ratio closed at 110%. Page 13, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our attributable shareholders' equity and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Our total equity increased 3.1% over the quarter and 6.2% year-on-year, while attributable equity increased 3.4% over the quarter and 6.2% year-on-year. Total solvency and Tier 1 ratio evidenced a slight increase in most of our banks. On Page 14, we present our yield on loans, cost of funds, spreads and NIMs. Total NIM increased 52 basis points to 4% quarter -- 2 basis points growth over the quarter, mainly driven by an improvement in NIM on investments to 2.4%. Our consolidated NIM on loans expanded 20 basis points year-on-year and 7 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 4.5%. This incorporates a 7 basis points year- on-year expansion of NIM on retail loans to 6% and a 34 basis points year-on-year contraction of NIM on commercial loans to 3.3% focusing on our banking segment. NIM on loans of our banking segment grew 9 basis points in the quarter to 5% with this incorporating a 10 basis points increase in NIM on retail loans to 6.5% and 6 basis points increase on commercial loans to 3.9% during the quarter. The total NIM of our banking segment expanded 38 basis points over the quarter to 4.6% due to the same dynamics that affected our consolidated NIM. On consolidated basis, the average yield on loans for the quarter decreased 4 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 11.7%, while the average 3-month IBR decreased 12 basis points to 9.2%. Consolidated cost of funds was materially stable falling 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 6.8%. Finally, driving the previous results, the Central Bank stood flat at 9.25% during the second quarter. With this slow rate cuts implying longer adjustment periods than previously anticipated in this scenario, our NIM will continue to expand, though at a slower pace. On Page 15 to 16, we present our loan portfolio quality ratios, starting on Page 15. Loan portfolio quality ratios further strengthened during the quarter. PDL metrics continue to improve in all categories. 30-day PDL formation for the quarter was the lowest since second quarter 2022, while 90-day PDL formation reached the lowest level of the last 3 years. 30-day PDLs were 4.81%, a 37 basis points improvement over 3 months and 99 basis points improvement over 12 months. 90-day PDLs were 3.51%, 23 basis points improvement over the quarter and 73 basis points improvement over 12 months. Commercial 30-day PDLs were 4.37%, a 41 basis points improvement quarter-on-quarter and 80 basis points improvement year- on-year. 90-day PDLs were 3.87%, a 19 basis points improvement over the quarter and 53 basis points improvement over the year. Consumer 30-day PDLs improved 39 basis points in the quarter to 5.07%, while 90-day PDLs increased 30 basis points to 2.84%. Mortgage 30-day PDLs and 90-day PDLs improved 13 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively, over the quarter. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs was 0.85x. On Page 16, the share of our portfolio classified as Stage 1 remained stable at 88.5%, while Stage 3 fell for the third consecutive quarter to 6.1%, driven by improvements across all portfolios. As a result, coverage measured as allowances for Stages 2 and 3 as a percentage of Stages 2 and 3 were 31.5% at end of quarter. On Page 17, cost of risk, net of recoveries continues to show the improvement in the quality of our portfolio. This decreased 31 basis points to 1.7%. We expect 2025 cost of risk to be in the 1.95% area. Cost of risk net for commercial loans decreased 46 basis points to 0.4% for the quarter and cost of risk net of recovery for consumer loans improved 27 basis points to 4.2%. The cost of risk of credit cards and other loans improved quarter-on-quarter. On Page 18, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income grew 3.5% year-on-year and slightly increased 0.3% quarter-on- quarter. Net fee income increased 1% and 1.1%, respectively, over these periods. Our income from the nonfinancial sector was around 80% of that recorded in second quarter 2024 due to lower contribution from the energy and gas and infrastructure sectors. Finally, at the bottom of the page, the quarter-on-quarter decrease in other operating income is mainly driven by the seasonally high income from dividends in the first quarter, lower contribution from derivatives and FX and OCI realizations from Colombian government bond exchanges that position our portfolio with higher yields going forward. These were partially offset by stronger [indiscernible]. On Page 19, we present some efficiency ratios. Total expense increased 2.4% quarter-on-quarter and 9.2% year-on-year. General and administrative expenses increased slightly by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 4.4% year-on-year with operating taxes and deposit insurance accounting for 34% of this category. Cost to assets for the quarter were 2.8%, increasing 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 6 basis points year-on-year. Our quarterly cost to income slightly deteriorated to 52% over the quarter. Finally, on Page 20, we present our net income and profitability ratios. Attributable net income for the quarter was COP 195 billion or COP 20.8 per share, increasing 36.9% relative to first quarter 2025 and being the highest in the last 12 quarters. Our return on average assets and our return on average equity for the quarter were 1.1% and 11.3%, respectively. I will now summarize our general guidance and an outlook for this part of the presentation. We expect our 2025 return on average equity to be in the 10.5% area. These notes are the loan growth in the 7% area with commercial loans growing in the 5% area and retail loans growing in the 9% area. Our consolidated NIM in the 4% area with loans in the 4.5% area. NIM for banking segment in the 4.7% area with NIM loans in the 5.3% area. Cost of risk net of recoveries at the 1.95% area. Cost to assets in the 2.75% area, income from the nonfinancial sector of 90% for 2024 and fee income ratio at the 21% area.
Okay. Thank you, Diego. Before moving into questions and answers, I would like to share some final thoughts on Colombia and Grupo Aval in this year 2025. Our year-to-date performance has been largely in line with our projections. Net income has been supported by a positive trend in cost of risk, a gradual improvement in our NIM and controlled spending. However, the speed at which our NIM on loans has recovered is still modest, driven by high real Central Bank intervention rates, changes in regulation that forced lower interest rate caps for consumer loans and an intense price competition for high-quality corporate clients. We are actively working to adapt to this environment to improve our margins under this higher for longer monetary policies. That said, the progress in our financial diversification efforts is yielding. So 3 of our 4 banks have shifted the commercial focus towards higher yielding and faster breakeven products such as personal loans and credit cards. At the same time, we continue working on shifting our [indiscernible] towards lower cost and stable deposits. Although loan growth has been modest, we are already seeing a change in trend, which we expect to consolidate during the second half of the year, especially in commercial loans. We are encouraged by the solid results for this quarter, which support our constructive view on trends in net income and return on equity. We remain focused on sustaining double-digit profitability throughout the remainder of the year. With this, we are now open for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank. And that question has been withdrawn. Our next question will come from the line of Daniel Mora with CrediCorp Capital.
If I may, 3 questions. The first one is regarding the cost of risk. In this quarter, it was quite low, but was explained by high recoveries rather than by lower provisions. So can you provide further color on this performance? Do you see this as a trend that can be repeated in the coming quarters? Or should be considered a one-off in this particular quarter? That will be my first question. The second one is regarding other income. It had a solid performance, but I would like to understand what was the reason behind this number? It was the other income inside the total other operating income. And the third one is regarding NIM. Given the lower reduction of the monetary policy rate, how do you see the NIM evolving not only in 2025 but in 2026? Do you expect the recovery cycle of the banks of about to take longer than initially expected?
Thanks for the questions. Let me try to take them in order, starting with perhaps the most important one regarding NIM. As Maria Lorena mentioned in her closing remarks, we're actively focusing on expanding NIM beyond what happens to the monetary cycle. That's why we are changing our mix, both on the deposit side and on the loan side. But what we have seen in Colombia as well has been some distortion that has been implied by changes in regulation. It's tough to have a precise number of what the implication of the changes in the formula for interest rate caps has been, but there could be a discussion between 300 and 400 basis points compared to the previous formula for the consumer side. That has pressed numbers lower and in fact, has had an implication in growth for consumer loans. On the other hand, on the corporate side and the commercial side, we've included a new part in the graph on NIM here to try to show what is going on in the Colombian market. And it is we're having as expected NIM expansion on the consumer side as cost of funds goes down. But on the commercial side, the lack of growth has forced very intense price competition for the highest quality loans. As we have emphasized through a number of our previous calls, we are very disciplined in our pricing to make sure that we have profitable growth moving forward, and that's the reason that has driven lower growth on the consumer side than we might have desired in the past. However, when you look at the numbers, the trend has changed late May, June and July, we're having a better behavior in the market that makes us positive on how things will evolve. To wrap up what's going up with -- going on with NIM, what we're seeing is we expect the NIM on the commercial side to start to pick up again to more -- to levels closer to where Colombia should be operating at. And we expect to see the improvement on the consumer side to continue as rates go down. This is slower than what we could have anticipated or anybody in Colombia a year ago, but monetary policy has been quite slow. So I hope I didn't expand too much on that, but we are positive and that is the case for our guidance moving forward. On the cost of risk, you're right, this was a positive quarter on the cost of risk side. However, we have stuck to the guidance of 1.95% that we had given in the past and the guidance for our [Technical Difficulty] is positive, it does not change our view on what the numbers will look like. And finally, on other income, we have a different items going there. Some of those have to do with recoveries of some controversies we had that implied some positive income. Some of those have offsets on the higher expenses that you saw during this quarter. So all in all, we have stuck to our overall guidance, perhaps the only change is a slightly slower loan growth and a slightly more positive nonfinancial. But overall, basically the same guidance that we gave on the last call.
Our next question will come from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank.
I have a question on trading assets because on your balance sheet, it is clear that they are gaining relevance year-over-year, quarter- over-quarter. So just wanted to ask if you can share your thoughts. Are you taking a tactical advantage here of certain market opportunities? Is this a strategy to enhance yields? Just to want to understand not only what is being achieved because I think, as you see, trading is benefiting results, but also how you're managing risk here and the volatility on the segment? And a second maybe follow-up is if you could repeat the guidance. I'm a bit slow here in typing. So if you could repeat, it would be great.
Okay. Regarding trading assets, there's 2 things going on. One is we are indeed using -- taking advantage from the exchanges of bonds that the Colombian government has done during this year. And what that does is we give in bonds that already had OCI that reduced the price of those bonds in our book, but that [Audio Gap]. So some of what you see of our strategy there, thinking of expanding NIM is we are refreshing those portfolios. The other piece that you might see there is we've been working over time, expanding our treasury business for clients and some of the growth that you see on the trading assets on the trading book have an offset with positions that we've taken with clients. So when you take into consideration all those positions from the risk management that I think was your second question, that is taken care in that way. So we're not actually taking more risk on our portfolio, even though you've seen some growth because of that treasury business with our customers.
[Operator Instructions]
I think I didn't repeat guidance for Brian. I apologize for that. Brian, the ROE is in the 10.5% area. It's in the middle of the range that we had given out last time, the 10% to 11%. And that is building on loan growth in the 7% area with commercial loans growing 5% -- in the 5% area and consumer or retail loans in the 9% area. Then NIM -- consolidated NIM in the 4% area and NIM on loans in the 4.5%. And if you only look at the banking segment, NIM 4.7% area and NIM on loans, 5.3% area. Cost of risk, as I mentioned before, 1.95% area, cost to assets 2.75% area, income from the nonfinancial sector, 90% of that for 2024 and fee income ratio in the 21% area.
Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude our call for today. We thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
TranscriptFY2025 Q12025-05-11FY2025 Q1 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 34 paragraphs
FY2025 Q1 earnings call transcript
Welcome to Grupo Aval's First Quarter 2025 Consolidated Results Conference Call. My name is Rob, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulations in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulation. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as holding company of the Aval Financial conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Unconsolidated financial information of our subsidiaries in the Colombian banking system are presented in accordance with the Colombian IFRS as reported by the Superintendency of Finance. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others are explained when required in this report. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you may identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential or continue or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates and other risks described from time-to-time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report. The content of this document and other figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable in this document, we will refer to billions as thousands of millions. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. With us today are Ms. Maria Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Diego Solano, Chief Financial Officer; Mrs. Paula Duran, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Products; and Mr. Camilo Perez, Banco de Bogota's Chief Economist. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Maria Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. Maria Gutierrez Botero, you may begin.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2025 conference call. I am here with Diego Solano, our CFO; Camilo Perez, Chief Economist of Banco de Bogota; and Paula Duran, Corporate VP of Sustainability and Strategic Projects. I would like to start by highlighting this quarter's results. Our net income was Ps. 362 billion, a 28% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and 3.2x that of the first quarter of 2024. We gained market share in deposits and loans, reaching a 25.3% share in loans are reaching 16.6% in mortgages, the highest level of our history. Core business trends evolved positively during the quarter despite a persistent high interest rate environment and a full performance of the capital market during March. NIM on loans increased slightly during the quarter. NIM on investment recovered, asset quality continued improving. Our non-financial sector was stronger than in the three previous quarters and OpEx remained under control. During the quarter, NIM on retail loans of our banking services segment reached the highest level in two years. However, total NIM on loans remained flat due to pressures on commercial loans from a strong price competition in the corporate segment. Even though our profitability continues to increase, the pace of improvement was slightly slower than initially anticipated, explained by a lower-than-expected NIM on investments due to the poor performance of local fixed income. A deterioration of the country's fiscal outlook and the resignation of the Minister of Finance affected the local markets during the second half of the quarter. This was clear in Porvenir's results for the quarter. Returns on Porvenir's [indiscernible] reserves were suffered during the latter part of the quarter, negatively impacting profitability. Corfi contributed strongly due to seasonal dividend, higher income from the infrastructure sector and a decrease in cost of funds, which reached single-digits in the quarter. Now moving on to our corporate priorities. I would like to give you a brief update. First, customer experience. In terms of customer experience, the system measure the Net Promoter Score, NPS across all of our entities to assess customer satisfaction and loyalty. The consistent improvement in NPS results reflects our strong commitment to enhancing customer journey. As part of this effort, we have implemented a comprehensive loyalty program that includes on Aval experiences, which provide customers with privileged access to events and concerts. Additionally, we have developed Augusta, a robust and integrated customer database that enables us to gain deeper insights into our clients' relationships across Aval entities and to serve them with greater precision and relevance. This year, we established a group-wide committee to promote the exchange of best practices and customer experience across our entities. As key steps in this effort, we are reviewing our entire voice of the customer model and standardizing Net Promoter Score, NPS, measure in line with the highest industry standards. Additionally, we'll launch a comprehensive internal program to further embed a customer-centric culture throughout our entities, which includes the care training session, strategic communication content and technological tools. Second, financial diversification. On this front, we have been working over recent quarters in three fronts. First, improve our commercial and marketing capabilities around retail deposits; second, reduce balance sheet sensitivity to interest rate risk volatility; and third, improve our non-banking fee generation capabilities. As part of our focus on increasing our share of retail funding, we have made changes in the incentive structure of our sales forces. In addition, we are reviewing our product base to strengthen our value proposition for retail customers. In addition, our banks, particularly those focused on retail lending, continue deploying these efforts to reduce their sensitivity to interest rate risk. First, they have increased the mix of the time deposits in their overall funding mix. Second, increasing the tenures on new time deposits to lever closer to the duration of their loans; and third, using hedging strategies to swap fixed rate time deposit to IDR. The speed of deployment of this strategy has been mindful of the persistence of the higher for longer interest rate environment in Colombia. We continue strengthening our services offering and non-banking fee generation by improving our asset management and advisory services. As mentioned in our last call, Aval acquired investment of core fee trust and brokerage business. In addition, we incorporate Aval Banca de Inversion Investment Banking as a joint effort of the holding company effort. Third, synergies and efficiencies. During the quarter, we set ourselves to capture efficiencies in the following calendar year. The first wave of synergies will leverage on the centralization through Aval Valor Compartido [ph] of the group's procurement, facility and property management, accounting function, cybersecurity, payroll and recruitment. During the first quarter, we successfully migrated Banco de Bogota processes into Aval Valor Compartido. Next semester, we will migrate these processes to Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, and AV Villas. Fourth, digital transformation and innovation. We aim to consolidate our culture of innovation and modern technology, capitalizing on the benefits of artificial intelligence, assuring technological stability and security and promoting digital transformation to improve our business and product and service offerings. On this front, I am proud to announce we partnered with Microsoft to boost the usage of artificial intelligence in our everyday operations. This will leverage customer experience, operational efficiency and enhance the data driven decision making. We actively support the real-time payment system led by Banco de la Republica, achieving significant progress in the creation and use of our alphanumeric key known as Aval. As of today, we have enabled 8.9 million keys, an increase of 15%, since December of last year to receive near real-time transfer from other financial institutions. This has facilitated over 2.1 million transactions, a 70% increase compared to January. Fifth, corporate culture. To support the strategic priorities that I have mentioned, we continue to strengthen our performance and customer oriented culture. As part of this process, we have been working on promoting and improving the communication of our leadership across business units and throughout our organization around our strategic priorities as a group and key initiatives. In addition, we are well advanced in the process of refreshing part of the leadership teams and our brands combining bringing in new talent that adds to existing leaders. These changes, combined with the refreshment of our Board of Directors and CEOs of our main business units support the alignment of our management team to the new opportunities and challenges that we face. And finally, sustainability. We recently published our management and sustainability report, a document that reflects our economic results and progress in ESG terms. It released the impact we have on the millions of people who carry in our endorsement to fulfill their dreams. I invite you to read it if you have not already done so. The coming months will be key to consolidate an even more robust ESG strategy aligned with the sustainability challenges facing the country and the world. Now I would like to invite Paula to go over our ESG achievements to release this quarter.
Thank you, Maria. This quarter, we proudly received the results of the Medco ESG [ph] responsibility ranking, which recognizes the companies with the best reputation for their ESG impact in Colombia. In the ranking, Grupo Aval rose to 71st lane, signing 17 positions and positioning itself as the third largest business conglomerate in the country. In the financial sector, Banco de Bogota ranked third, Banco efficiency and Banco AV Villas were in the top 10. Corficolombiana ranked eighth and Porvenir reached second place in the ESG sector. One of our most significant social initiatives, Mision La Guajira advanced this quarter with registration and documentation programs with the National Register's Office and with financial education programs. During the quarter, we completed water solutions for 45 communities and Energy Solutions for 81 communities in [indiscernible]. Our commitment to diversity and inclusion continues to be an important driver for us. Today, 35% of our management positions are held by women and 55% of our employees are women. The percentage of women's participation in our board increased from 24% to 31% after the Q1 assemblies in which boards were elected. And in addition, the percentage of independent members increased from 58% to 60%. Regarding our progress in environmental issues, we continue to define our decarbonization route together with the group's entities, and we continue to implement eco-efficient projects such as the Banco Popular alliance with Promigas to generate social energy for 13 of its branches. This initiative will allow them to generate more than 570,000 kilowatts per year and avoid the emission of close to 300 tons of CO2. Finally, during the quarter, we enhanced our ESG management model by developing a comprehensive reporting system that enabled us to establish a baseline for more than 150 indicators across our entities. This foundation has allowed us to build dynamic dashboards to track progress in the key ESG areas. We firmly believe that by working together with our entities, sharing best practices and monitoring progress we can amplify the impact of our efforts and drive meaningful measurable change. We will continue to strengthen our internal capabilities, advance our environmental goals, deepen our social impact program and more accurately measure the value we generate. Thank you.
Thank you, Paula. Now on the macro side, let me mention some relevant issues this quarter. The Colombian economy posted a strong growth figures during the first quarter, driven by the public administration, entertainment and commerce sectors. For 2025, we forecast a GDP growth of 2.7%. We anticipate moderation in the following quarters due to the potential negative effects of tariffs on global trade. Thus, despite the recovery, global and local uncertainty will continue to take a toll on investments. Annual inflation slowed to 5.09% in March 2025, down from 5.2% at the end of 2024, marking its lowest level since October 2021. This is a positive development indicating that the Central Bank's efforts to stabilize prices are yielding results. However, regulated companies and food prices continue pressuring inflation. Our forecasted inflation is 4.7% for the end of the year. In this context, the Central Bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in its April meeting, balancing between the recovery of the economy and fiscal challenges. The deterioration of the fiscal front remain as the main stopper for a more dovish Central Bank. We expect the Central Bank rate to end 2025 in 8.5%. The fiscal deficit for this year will exceed 60% of GDP above the government target of 5.1%. Confidence in the government's fiscal adjustment plan has diminished amid high global uncertainty. We anticipate that pressure on long-term rates will continue in the coming months. Our belief is that the business sector must remain dedicated to executing their investment and strategies. As we enter the pre-electoral year, noise will be -- sorry, noise will continue to increase. However, we are confident in the resilience of the Colombian economy. Camilo will elaborate on our economic outlook. Camilo?
Thank you, Maria Botero, and good morning. The improving trend in the Colombian economy recorded in 2024 extended into early 2025. We estimate economic growth of 2.8% for the first quarter. The economy we have experienced its highest annual expansion since mid-2022. Similar to the beginning of 2024, public spending and household consumption were the main drivers. According to the Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule, in the first quarter, public spending grew 21% annually, supporting the recovery phase. In fact, the best performing sector was public administration. On the other hand, the second most dynamic sector was trade, transportation, accommodation and food services, explained by higher private consumption of both goods and services. Without a doubt, the strength of the labor market, which at the end of the quarter recorded the lowest unemployment rate since May 2016 at 9.1% has been one of the major drivers of the Colombian increased purchasing power. Furthermore, annual growth of 24% in remittances in pesos during the first quarter also contributed to this. In this context, sectors such as manufacturing, finance and professional services also enjoyed an increase in their activity. Meanwhile, investment continues modest recovery, supported by an increase in import of capital goods for industry and agriculture as well as the execution of infrastructure projects in the country's main cities. Thus, amid favorable domestic demand, but recognizing latent risks in the international front, growth of around 2.7% is expected for 2025, still below the country's potential. For its part, this inflationary process paused in the first quarter, dropping from an inflation rate of 5.2% at the end of 2024 to 5.1% in March. The high indexation and the impact of the minimum wage on services, the increase in gas rates that pressure regulated prices, a slow but progressive transmission of the devaluation to prices of goods and a modest increase in food services explained the above. Inflation is expected to be around 4.7% by the end of 2025, once again outside the target range established by the Central Bank. Amid the described economic outlook and accompanied by a deterioration of Colombia's country risk due to a complex fiscal situation, the Central Bank paused its easing cycle, leaving the interest rate by 9.50%. New members appointed to the Central Bank's Board in February with a paradox view of the economy have added uncertainty to the decisions. In April, [indiscernible] consensus expected a third stability decision, but the Board unanimously opted to reduce the interest rate to 9.25%. Data dependence makes it difficult to forecast the interest rate. Despite this, it is expected to continue declining to around 8.50% at the end of the year, limited in part by a fiscal situation. Regarding the exchange rate, in line with global developments and prior to the burst of uncertainty, the Colombian Peso has strengthened against the U.S. dollar in the first quarter. Compared to the end of 2024, while the dollar lost 4% against G7 currencies to March, the devaluation against the Colombian Peso was 5% as the exchange rate fell from Ps. 4,405 to Ps. 4,181 per dollar. However, the Colombian Pesos performance was mixed. Standard & Poor's notification of the country's BB+ rating with a negative outlook and the upward adjustment of the rate expectations of the Central Bank supported the currency with the exchange rate hitting a low of Ps. 4,060 in mid-February. However, the deterioration in the fiscal outlook following the publication of the government's financial plan questioned the compliance with the Fiscal Rule in 2024 and put upward pressure on the currency. By 2025, the exchange rate is expected to average Ps. 4,300 against the dollar, amid high global volatility, a challenging fiscal balance and a widening of Colombia's external deficit. Indeed, we expect the current account deficit to fall from minus 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to minus 2.6% of GDP in 2025 due to a stronger recovery in imports than exports, both of goods and services, where the terms of trade would be affected by lower commodity prices. Finally, the fiscal situation in 2025 does not appear far removed from that observed in the previous year. In the first quarter, spending far exceeded revenue, resulting in record fiscal deficits and low cash flow levels. Unfortunately, the strategy for increased tax collection is not entirely clear, and the option of cutting the spending has been postponed to a point where if it takes place, it could be insufficient and too late. Given this scenario and considering that the three major rating agencies of Fitch, Standard & Poor's and Moody's have a negative outlook for the country, the likelihood of a rating downgrade is increasingly likely. Thank you. Back to you, Maria Botero.
Thank you, Camilo. Since our last call, we have continued to see positive trends in the consumer credit cycle, which have translated into lower cost of risk in the system and high profitability in the Colombian financial system. As of February, seven out of 29 banks accumulated net losses compared with 12 banks on February 2024. Although the system's profitability has improved, there is still a long way to go even more so as they incorporate during the first and second quarters of 2024, the reconstitution of countercycle's provisions that were released during 2023 and 2024. However, the system has sufficient solvency to absorb this cycle. Now I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give details of our results. Diego?
Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will start on Pages 9 and 10 with a few charts showing the growth rate and quality of our loan portfolio relative to the rest of the Colombian banking system. For comparability reasons, these are unconsolidated figures under Colombian IFRS as published by the Superintendency of Finance of Colombia. For the 12 months ending in February 2025, commercial loans and mortgages for the system grew 0.5% and 3.4% in real terms, with consumer loans contracting 7.4% in real terms. We continue to outgrow our competitors in total loans and retail loans and have grown slightly slower in commercial loans. This yielded year-on-year market share gains of 32 basis points in total loans, 156 basis points in consumer loans and 199 basis points in mortgages, while our share of commercial loans fell 48 basis points. For the last three months, loans grew 1% in the system. Even though dynamics continue to show signs of recovery, real growth was weak considering the 2.6% quarterly inflation. Mortgages grew 3% and commercial loans 1.4% in nominal terms over the quarter, while consumer loans contracted 0.9%. On Page 10, loan quality for both the system and the Aval banks showed an improvement during the quarter for all loan categories. Our banks continue to exhibit better loan portfolio quality than the system in all main categories. I will now move to the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS. On Page 11, assets grew 7.5% over the quarter and 0.6% to -- 7.5%, sorry, over the year and 0.6% over the quarter to Ps. 330 trillion. Gross loans, our main assets reached Ps. 199 trillion, growing 5.4% year-on-year and decreasing 0.3% over the quarter. Mortgages and consumer loans drove our year-on-year growth. Aggressive pricing competition for corporate clients remained the main challenge to achieve stronger growth in commercial loans. This has taken a toll on our share of commercial loans considering our pricing discipline. Commercial loans expanded 3.6% year-on-year and contracted 1.8% over the quarter. Consumer loans grew 3.9% year-on-year and 0.7% during the quarter with payroll loans growth continuing to recover, increasing 5.8% year-on-year and 1.6% during the quarter. Auto loans grew 7.7% year-on-year and contracted 1.2% during the quarter. Personal loans grew 3% year-on-year and 1.4% during the quarter. Credit cards contracted 5.8% year-on-year and 3.1% during the quarter. Finally, mortgages grew 22% year-on-year and 4.2% during the quarter. We expect our 2025 loan growth to be slightly lower than formerly estimated, in line with a tighter monetary policy and more volatile local and global environment. On Page 12, we present the evolution of funding and deposits. Total funding increased 8.3% year-on-year and 1% during the quarter. Deposits that account for 75% of our funding grew 9.8% year-on-year and 3.5% quarter-on-quarter. Our deposits to net loan ratio closed at 109%. On Page 13, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our attributable shareholders' equity and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Our total equity decreased 1.6% over the quarter and increased 5% year-on-year. Our attributable equity decreased 1.6% over the quarter and increased 4.4% year-on-year. Dividends of Ps. 655 billion were declared to our shareholders during the quarter. In addition, minorities at our subsidiary level received dividends of Ps. 693 billion. Banco de Bogota¡ and Banco de Occidente declared dividends during the quarter. On Page 14, we present our yield on loans, cost of funds, spreads and NIMs. Total NIM increased 64 basis points to 3.5% quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by an improvement in NIM on investments to a still soft 0.3%. Our consolidated NIM on loans expanded 12 basis points year-on-year to 4.4% and was flat for the quarter. Over the year, NIM on retail loans expanded 96 basis points to 5.8% and NIM on commercial loans decreased by 81 basis points to 3.4%. Over the quarter, NIM on retail loans expanded 19 basis points and NIM on commercial loans contracted 14 basis points. Aggressive price competition on commercial loans, especially in the corporate segment continued to press our NIM on commercial loans down. The benchmark rate for Colombia was flat at 9.5% during the first quarter. However, as mentioned by Camilo, the Central Bank unanimously cut its rate by a quarter to 9.25% in its April meeting. Focusing on bank and the banking segment, NIM on loans of our banking segment was materially stable over the quarter at 4.9%. This incorporates a 13 basis points increase in NIM on retail loans to 6.4% and 13 basis points decrease in NIM on commercial loans to 3.9%. The total NIM of our Banking segment expanded 53 basis points over the quarter to 4.2% due to the same dynamics that affected our consolidated NIM. On a consolidated basis, the average yield on loans for the quarter decreased 38 basis points over the three month period to 11.6%, while the average three months IBR decreased 5 basis points to 9.3%. Consolidated cost of funds fell 37 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 6.8%. Average rates on time deposits and saving accounts fell 43 basis points and 52 basis points quarterly, respectively. The modest reduction pace of the Central Bank implies a longer adjustment period to that initially anticipated. In this scenario, our NIM will continue to expand, though at a lower pace. On Page 15 through 16, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios. Starting on Page 15. PDL metrics continue to improve in all categories. 30-day PDLs were 5.18%, a 13 basis points improvement over three months and 68 basis points improvement over 12 months. 90-day PDLs were 3.74%, a 26 basis points improvement relative to the last quarter and 41 basis points improvement over 12 months. Commercial 30-day PDLs were 4.79%, a 16 basis point improvement over three months and 31 basis points improvement year-on-year. 90-day PDLs were 4.06%, a 37 basis points improvement over the quarter. 90-day PDL formation reached the lowest level of the last two years and continues to show a positive trend. 30-day PDL formation for the quarter was the lowest for our first quarter, since 2022. We recorded a 14 basis points decrease in consumer 30-day PDLs to 5.46% and 90-day PDLs decreased 10 basis points to 3.14%. Mortgages, 30-day PDLs and 90-day PDLs decreased 2 basis points and 14 basis points, respectively. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs was 0.88x. On Page 16, the share of our portfolio classified as Stage 1 remained stable at 8.5%, while Stage 3 fell slightly over the quarter to 6.3%, driven by commercial and consumer loans. During the quarter, we reclassified a portion of Stage 1 commercial loans to Stage 2 due to an increase in expected credit loss following rating updates that incorporated this company's 2024 financial performance information. As a result, coverage measured as allowances for Stage 2 and 3 as a percentage of Stage 2 and 3 loans slightly fell during the quarter to 33.3%. On Page 17, cost of risk net of recoveries increased 21 basis points to 2%. We expect 2025 cost of risk to be slightly below this level. Cost of risk net for commercial loans increased by 50 basis points to 0.9% for the quarter, reflecting the reclassification to Stage 2 previously described. Cost of risk for consumer loans improved 32 basis points to 4.5%. The cost of risk for credit cards and auto loans improved quarter-on-quarter, falling 89 basis points to 6.1% and 75 basis points to 3%, respectively. On Page 18, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income grew 6.2% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. Net fee income increased 0.9% and decreased 1%, respectively, over this time periods. Net pension and severance fees grew 9.1% for the quarter, mainly due to higher performance-based fees and a higher collection of mandatory contributions related to the increase in minimum wage at the beginning of the year. Annual gross banking fees grew 1.4%. This incorporates 3.9% growth of commissions and banking services that was offset by a 2.1% annual decrease in credit cards and debit card fees. Our income for the non-financial sector was around 83% of that reported in the same period for 2024. Finally, at the bottom of the page, the year-on-year increase in other operating income is mainly explained by higher derivatives and FX gains. On Page 19, we present some efficiency ratios. Total expenses decreased 5.2% quarter-on-quarter and increased 7.6% year-on-year. General and administrative expenses decreased 8% quarter-on-quarter and increased 6.7% year-on-year with operating taxes and deposit insurance accounting for 37% of this category. Cost to assets for the quarter was 2.7%, improving 19 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Our quarterly cost to income improved to 50.8% over the quarter. Finally, on Page 20, we present our net income and profitability ratios. Attributable net income for the quarter was Ps. 362 billion or Ps. 15.2 per share, increasing 28.5% relative to fourth quarter 2024 and 3.2x that for first quarter of 2024. Our return on average assets and return on average equity for the quarter were 1% and 8.4%, respectively. Before we move into questions and answers, I will now summarize our general guidance for 2025. We expect loan growth in the 9% area with commercial loans growing in the 7% area and retail loans growing in the 11% area, slightly lower than our previous guidance. Our consolidated NIM in the 4% area with NIM on loans in the 4.5% area. NIM of our banking segment in the 4.7% area with NIM on loans in the 5.3% area affected by the Central Bank's intervention rate expectations. Cost of risk net of recoveries at 1.95% -- in the 1.95% area better than our previous guidance. Cost to assets in the two and three quarters area, income from the non-financial sector of 85%, of that for 2024 slightly improving from our previous guidance. A fee income ratio at the 21% area better than our previous guidance. With this, our expectation for 2025 return on equity is expected to be in the 10% to 11% range.
Thank you, Diego. Before moving into questions and answers, I would like to share some final thoughts of Colombia and Grupo Aval in 2025. The trend of improvement of our net income and return on equity will continue in the upcoming quarters. Despite the challenging economic conditions due to an increasing local and global uncertainty, we are focused on returning to double-digit [indiscernible] in 2025. Positive drivers for our results incorporate stable cost of risk, higher operational effectiveness and a strong fee income generation from non-banking segments of operations will contribute positively to the results. The main headwind for a more solid improvement of return on equity continues to be our NIM on loans. The persistently high interest rate environment has slowed the recovery pace of our NIM on loans. As I mentioned earlier, one of the -- our corporate priorities consist in financial diversification. Achievements on this front will allow us to strengthen the mix of our deposits towards low cost and stable funding and reduce the cost of funding, there managing the impact of interest rate cycles. Our usual monetary policy will support the recovery of NIMs on loans. However, the speed we initially anticipated is no better than before, given the speed at which rates will be cut. In addition, our guidance incorporates stable spreads on commercial loans, which will support the persistent recovery overall already happening in NIM on retained loans. So we are now open to questions. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Brian Flores from Citibank. Your line is open.
Hi, team. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have two on my side. The first one is a bit on your guidance. So from what I understand, the new ROE range is 10% to 11%. I think it was closer to 11% in the previous quarter. So I just wanted to understand if this is a correct reading, which is ROE could be weaker than you were expecting in the last quarter. And then as you mentioned, asset quality is perhaps a bit better than you were anticipating. But then as you mentioned, the key downside risk here seems to be NIM. So should we understand that at some point, you need to accelerate in origination to kind of compensate what is happening with pricing? That is the first question. And then the second one is more on the macro side. We know the pension reform starts implementation in July. If you could elaborate any impacts you're seeing in Porvenir and also if this is already reflected in the guidance? Thank you.
Yes. Let me start with -- your reading on ROE is right. Last time, we had guided into 11% area. Now we're guiding slightly lower than that in the 10% to 11% range. The reason, as I try to highlight when going line by line is we've experienced two negative things and some positives. The positive, you're absolutely on the spot. It is a better performance and evolution of the quality of the loan portfolio. So that's going to be a positive one. Then there's another one, and it is Corficolombiana, we had guided to a lower performance this year, and it has already performed better during the quarter. And then on the negative side, the slower pace of the Central Bank does affect our NIM on loans, particularly of consumer loans specifically. So that's what we're bringing into this guidance. And then we had a slower first quarter in loan growth than what we were initially foreseeing. Then you said, should you guys be accelerating origination? I think that's something we're evaluating very carefully because part of the reason why we didn't grow as fast as we expected was that we saw very aggressive pricing from some of our peers in particularly large corporate loans. We've been very disciplined with pricing to ensure that we're growing, but we're growing in a profitable way so that those are the kind of things we need to evaluate. However, we continue to work on origination and high-quality and high profitability origination very high.
Regarding the question about the pension reform, as you maybe know, given the EBITDA was approved in the Congress though, the short implementation of the reform is the 1st of July. So we are waiting because there are some -- we are waiting for the constitutional court because they are analyzing if the reform is okay with the constitution. So -- but we are prepared in Porvenir. The government has published a decree with the main issue for us that is the commissions and the commissions are set in the way that we were expecting. So I think we are waiting for the constitutional court, but Porvenir is prepared for both scenarios, with reform or without reform.
And then you also asked about our guidance. Our guidance is basically taking up a neutral scenario. The pension reform would be positive on our results if effective as planned. We've gone for our guidance on the prudent side.
No, perfect. Super clear. And then if I can just follow-up on that last comment. So if it goes as you, let's say, the positive expectation that you have on the pension reform, do you have an estimate on the impact particularly or not yet?
We need to see how regulation comes out before we get into those numbers. We would prefer to wait for that.
That makes sense. Thank you.
Thanks.
Your next question comes from the line of Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Thank you all. Just a follow-up on Porvenir. Just to see if I understood correctly, it's positive in the short term, but as the flows change in the future, it's negative, right, in the long run on Porvenir. And then I have a question on cost of risk. And I think Diego already mentioned this in the presentation regarding the increase in Stage 2. Just checking if this was one company or two or more companies, which sector are those companies from? And if this increase in Stage 2 should become Stage 3 at some point, like how you are seeing this or if you are comfortable with those? And if you plan to rebuild the coverage in the commercial Stage 2 and Stage 3 portfolio if your guidance somewhat reflects this? Thank you.
Let me start with your last one. This is actually a seasonal kind of review. So there is no reason to have any concern because of that, but there is a mechanical process where if companies didn't perform as well last year, then the rating falls. And even though they might be up to date and well performing with their loans, we need to change the rating, and that implies moving to the lower slice of Stage 2. The implication of that is we move from expected loss for 12 months to lifetime. Therefore, we increased the level of provisions, but it's more of an updating process that reflects how last year was rather than not how 2025, 2026 would look like. So not really a concern nor is this a change in trend. We obviously continue to be careful of other portfolios as we've done throughout the cycle, and we need to see the economy to continue to pick up to feel fully comfortable, but we are well on that track. Then you asked on Porvenir, the concise answer is it is a positive in the short term. In the long-term, not the medium, but quite long-term, we see a change because the volume that will go to the private sector will decrease. However, a substantial portion of current customers are part of the transition process. So the process of reducing the level of assets under management will take some time to offset the advantage of a better fee system.
Super clear. Thanks for the clarification, Diego. If I may, just a final one. If you can provide some comments, and sorry if you already did before, regarding the political outlook in Colombia, I know probably it's too soon to have a view. But whatever you can comment like for us to have some expectations, it's interesting for us here. Thank you.
I think, Diego, he doesn't want to answer that question. But I would say that the political outlook is uncertainty because you know that we have President Petro with the -- say, I don't know how to say [Foreign Language].
Sort of a referendum.
Like a referendum that the Congress is -- will discuss that next week. And we are waiting for that, and they are with the reforms, the labor reform and the health reform. And we have, I don't know, 40 candidates for next year in the Presidential election. So what you will see in the following months is uncertainty about that and more uncertainty that President Petro will create.
Yes, [indiscernible]. Well, thank you. Thank you for the detail everyone.
Your next question comes from the line of Juan Dower [ph] from Bank of Colombia. Your line is open.
Hello everybody. Can you listen me well?
Very low.
Okay, I will proceed with questions. I have a couple of questions. The first one is in regards to provisions. What is your expectation and especially how do you read the balance of risk at this moment of the juncture in perspective of the changes of the onetime policy part of rate cuts, also the country risk and the initiation of a trade war internationally. And if that reading of the environment could lead you to change your expectations towards provisions, which seem to have bottomed in the previous quarter. If you can give us some guidance in regards to that, I appreciate it. The other question is about commissions. We saw a decrease in the fee income ratio in this quarter. I would like to hear you elaborating a little bit on that decrease and on your expectations on the ratio for 2025. Also, you mentioned a strategic pillar improving the fees. So what could be your initiatives in that regard? Thank you very much.
Yes. Well, regarding provisions, I think that something that differentiates Aval from other peers in the system is the structure of our portfolio. So our guidance is tied more to that than other products. For example, we are much more concentrated in the payroll loans that even though they do carry the effect that we've seen on NIM are substantially better than some of the unsecured consumer lending and credit card products that are also part of the system. So we are in a position to have a better view on that. And then on the mix of industries, we have a slightly lower exposure to SMEs than some of our peers, and that also helps us. So that's the rationale behind why our performance has been substantially better than the rest of the system throughout this cycle and why we are able to have a more positive view. Then regarding fees, there's a mixture of effects here. If you've seen what we did was we raised our fee ratio because we saw the NIM slightly falling. We are pointing basically to the same guidance that we had before. We are thinking in peso-denominated fees, something that did affect us during the first quarter is you might have seen that Colombia had a pretty tough March due to market volatility, and we've seen some months affecting performance-related fees. However, we're seeing a pickup in retail activity that allows us to expect also an improvement on that side. Then there's something that is Aval-specific, and it is, as you well highlighted, that's one of our pillars because we feel we're not doing enough on the fee side. And given that we're actively working on that, that's also part of our source of being much more constructive on what we can achieve on fees moving forward.
Thank you.
And there are no further questions at this time. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, I turn the call back over to you.
No. Thank you. Thank you to everyone to be with us in this call and see you in three months.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2025-05-08Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and ...
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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and ...
Release Date: May 07, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) reported a significant increase in net income, reaching $362 billion, a 28% rise compared to the previous quarter and 3.2 times that of the first quarter of 2024. The company gained market share in deposits and loans, achieving a 25.3% share in loans and 16.6% in mortgages, marking the highest level in its history. Core business trends showed positive evolution despite high interest rates and poor capital market performance, with retail loans reaching their highest level in two years. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) implemented a comprehensive loyalty program and developed a robust customer database, enhancing customer experience and satisfaction. The company made significant progress in its ESG initiatives, improving its ranking in the Merco ESG responsibility ranking and advancing social and environmental projects. The pace of profitability improvement was slower than anticipated due to lower than expected investment returns and poor local fixed income performance. The resignation of the Minister of Finance and deterioration of the country's fiscal outlook negatively impacted local markets. Aggressive pricing competition in the corporate segment pressured commercial loans, leading to flat growth in total loans. The fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 60% of GDP, above the government's target, leading to continued pressure on long-term rates. Political uncertainty in Colombia, with upcoming elections and potential reforms, adds to the economic challenges faced by the company. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with AVAL. Q: Can you clarify the revised ROE guidance and the factors influencing it? A: Yes, the revised ROE guidance is now in the 10% to 11% range, slightly lower than the previous 11%. This adjustment is due to a slower pace of central bank rate cuts affecting our net interest margin (NIM) on loans, particularly consumer loans. However, we have seen positive developments in loan portfolio quality and better-than-expected performance from Corticolombiana. We are also evaluating the need to accelerate loan origination while maintaining profitability. - Diego Solano, CFO Q: What impact do you anticipate from the pension reform starting i…Read full documentShow less
Release Date: May 07, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) reported a significant increase in net income, reaching $362 billion, a 28% rise compared to the previous quarter and 3.2 times that of the first quarter of 2024. The company gained market share in deposits and loans, achieving a 25.3% share in loans and 16.6% in mortgages, marking the highest level in its history. Core business trends showed positive evolution despite high interest rates and poor capital market performance, with retail loans reaching their highest level in two years. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (NYSE:AVAL) implemented a comprehensive loyalty program and developed a robust customer database, enhancing customer experience and satisfaction. The company made significant progress in its ESG initiatives, improving its ranking in the Merco ESG responsibility ranking and advancing social and environmental projects. The pace of profitability improvement was slower than anticipated due to lower than expected investment returns and poor local fixed income performance. The resignation of the Minister of Finance and deterioration of the country's fiscal outlook negatively impacted local markets. Aggressive pricing competition in the corporate segment pressured commercial loans, leading to flat growth in total loans. The fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 60% of GDP, above the government's target, leading to continued pressure on long-term rates. Political uncertainty in Colombia, with upcoming elections and potential reforms, adds to the economic challenges faced by the company. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with AVAL. Q: Can you clarify the revised ROE guidance and the factors influencing it? A: Yes, the revised ROE guidance is now in the 10% to 11% range, slightly lower than the previous 11%. This adjustment is due to a slower pace of central bank rate cuts affecting our net interest margin (NIM) on loans, particularly consumer loans. However, we have seen positive developments in loan portfolio quality and better-than-expected performance from Corticolombiana. We are also evaluating the need to accelerate loan origination while maintaining profitability. - Diego Solano, CFO Q: What impact do you anticipate from the pension reform starting in July, and is this reflected in your guidance? A: The pension reform's implementation is set for July, pending constitutional review. We are prepared for both scenarios, with or without reform. The reform could positively impact our results if implemented as planned, but our guidance remains prudent, assuming a neutral scenario. - Diego Solano, CFO Q: Can you elaborate on the increase in Stage 2 loans and the sectors involved? A: The increase in Stage 2 loans is part of a seasonal review process, reflecting last year's performance rather than current trends. This involves updating ratings, which may move loans to Stage 2, requiring lifetime expected loss provisions. It's not a concern for us, and we continue to monitor our portfolios closely. - Diego Solano, CFO Q: How do you view the political outlook in Colombia, and what impact might it have? A: The political outlook is uncertain, with President Petro's referendum and upcoming reforms in labor and health sectors. There are numerous candidates for the next presidential election, contributing to the uncertainty. We are monitoring the situation closely. - Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, CEO Q: What are your expectations for provisions and the balance of risks given the current economic environment? A: Our guidance on provisions is influenced by our portfolio structure, which is more concentrated in payroll loans, offering better performance than unsecured consumer lending. We have lower exposure to SMEs, which also helps. We remain positive about our performance relative to the system. - Diego Solano, CFO For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

