B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVAL
Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores n-vtg PfdDNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest primary-source bull point is that 4Q25 showed better underlying banking metrics: loans and deposits grew, cost of risk improved, and full-year NIM moved higher, which at least supports stabilization rather than deterioration [#6K-4Q25Materials-2026-02-26].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
Ex-dividend and monthly payout mechanics can create near-term price softness without any change in operating fundamentals.
Momentum
68
Value
42
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.30 · Bull $4.80 · Bear $3.80Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.78
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -10.6
Value42 · Δ7d -8.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Ex-dividend and monthly payout mechanics can create near-term price softness without any change in operating fundamentals.
- • If credit costs, deposit mix, or margins reverse in the next quarterly release, the current stabilization narrative could fade quickly.
- • The bear case is that forward visibility is still weak: recent primary disclosures after year-end were mostly dividends, governance, and platform consolidation, while the deterministic prior remains neutral with very high uncertainty and mildly negative medium-horizon expected returns.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-04
Monthly dividend timing remains the nearest tradable event
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.6
Δ21d
-20.5
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+12.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 68.2 / Value 42.2 / Sentiment 48.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.27B
Beta
0.72
Shares Out
378.29M
P/E (TTM)
9.9
P/S (TTM)
0.87
P/FCF (TTM)
4.02
Rev YoY
+37.0%
EPS YoY
+35.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
$15.48B
Current Ratio
0.66
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data