ARW

Arrow ElectronicsB

NYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$215.00

-5.9% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$188.00

-17.7% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$160.00

-29.9% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-09

AI commentary

Near-term sentiment improved after the May 7 earnings release: AP framed results as above Wall Street expectations, and the stock closed at $189.83 on May 7 versus $194.95 on May 8, a roughly 2.7% follow-through gain. That said, the T+3 analyst revision trail remains thin in the checked evidence, and the sparse target summary looks stale, so this is better treated as a constructive monitoring setup than a clean high-conviction rerating call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence for its sector profile; peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-07catalystQ1 beat and above-guide Q2 outlook reset near-term expectationsMedium impact

Arrow's May 7 earnings release showed Q1 sales of $9.47B, up 39% year over year, GAAP EPS of $4.55 and non-GAAP EPS of $5.22, all above the high end of guidance; management also guided Q2 sales to $9.15B-$9.75B and non-GAAP EPS to $4.32-$4.52 while citing improved book-to-bill and a building backlog [#8-K-2026-05-07]. AP/Zacks said the quarter beat the three-analyst EPS consensus of $2.81.

2026-08-07eventQ2 2026 guidance conversion is the dated company-specific checkpointHigh impact

The company-specific checkpoint is whether Arrow can convert its guided Q2 2026 sales range of $9.15B-$9.75B and non-GAAP EPS range of $4.32-$4.52 after the quarter ending in early July 2026; the setup depends on sustained Components recovery, backlog conversion, and ECS avoiding a sharper-than-guided sequential normalization [#8-K-2026-05-07].

2027-05-09catalystRecovery plus mix and cost discipline could sustain margin expansionHigh impact

Management tied the setup to higher-margin value-added offerings, a scalable cost structure, and disciplined capital allocation, which could extend profitable growth if the cyclical upturn persists beyond the initial rebound phase [#8-K-2026-05-07].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology