B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
+62.5% vs current
AMRC
AmerescoDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
At close
2026-07-22
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
+36.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
-5.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-06-11
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+80.3
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source support is solid, but the setup is still more of an execution and reporting-monitoring story than a clean accelerating-demand thesis. Recent headlines keep Ameresco in view through conferences and Neogenyx-related coverage, yet the strongest evidence remains company and SEC materials rather than fresh broad analyst revision data. With no usable packet evidence for social, options skew, short interest, or employee sentiment, confidence should remain moderate rather than upgraded on narrative alone.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-11
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30eventNeogenyx Fuels consolidation can reshape reported EBITDA and balance-sheet opticsMedium impact
The May 4 SEC-furnished transaction materials say Ameresco plans to consolidate Neogenyx Fuels, with revenue largely unchanged on a consolidated basis, 30% of net income attributed to HASI below the line, and the JV's assets, liabilities, and debt consolidated onto Ameresco's balance sheet. That can alter how investors read leverage, minority-interest drag, and asset-level earnings contribution as the transaction closes and is absorbed into reported results. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-04]
2026-12-31eventFY2025 results and 2026 growth framework still anchor the setupHigh impact
Ameresco's March 2 earnings 8-K showed full-year 2025 revenue of $1.93B, adjusted EBITDA of $237.2M, project backlog above $5B, and total revenue visibility above $10B, with management guiding to another year of strong profitable growth in 2026. That remains the main primary-source anchor for the current rerating case, but the stock still needs execution proof rather than narrative alone. [#SEC-8K-2026-03-02]
2026-12-31catalystBacklog conversion remains the core medium-term upside leverHigh impact
The primary long thesis is still conversion of a large awarded and total backlog into revenue, EBITDA, and recurring cash generation. The prior company update cited 13% backlog growth and more than $10B of revenue visibility, while third-party earnings coverage also highlighted roughly $0.5B of new project awards in Q1 and awarded backlog nearing $2.8B; the opportunity is real, but confidence should stay moderate until project timing, margins, and asset monetization show through reported quarters. [#SEC-8K-2026-03-02]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-06-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology