AMRC

AmerescoB

NYSE / Capital Goods

At close

2026-06-02

View Chart

AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$45.50

+26.1% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$37.00

+2.6% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$24.00

-33.5% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-04

AI commentary

Immediate tone is mixed-positive. The company delivered a better operating/backlog narrative than the headline loss suggests, but the same-day JV/accounting update lowered reported EBITDA/EPS guidance and likely contributed to confusion. Market reaction was volatile rather than decisively bullish: the latest quoted trade was $31.48 at 20:30 UTC on May 4, 2026 versus a $31.31 open, with an intraday range of $27.85 to $32.31. T+1 analyst target or estimate revisions were not available in the checked sources, so confidence should stay moderate until post-print digestion broadens.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-04

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-25catalystQ1 earnings reset kept revenue outlook intact but exposed margin and accounting tradeoffsMedium impact

Q1 revenue rose 14% to $401.5 million, new awards were $522 million, awarded backlog reached about $2.8 billion, and total revenue visibility was $10.6 billion, but gross margin was 14% after adverse weather at RNG sites and full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance moved to $250-$270 million from the prior $270-$295 million range because the Neogenyx structure shifts 30% of JV earnings to non-controlling interest rather than because of weaker underlying operations [#8-K-2026-05-04].

2026-06-03eventNeogenyx Fuels closing could unlock balance-sheet flexibility and fund biofuels growthHigh impact

Ameresco signed the HASI transaction on May 4, 2026 to form Neogenyx Fuels at a stated $1.8 billion enterprise value, with HASI committing $400 million; $100 million goes to Ameresco at closing, about $58 million is earmarked to reduce an existing construction and development loan, and the remainder funds the JV. The agreement allows termination if closing has not occurred by June 3, 2026, making completion the key near-term event [#8-K-2026-05-04].

2026-12-31catalystSecond-half asset placements and federal project demand remain the main execution path for 2026High impact

Management still expects 100-120 MWe of energy assets to enter service in 2026, including two RNG plants, and said second-half revenue should be about 60% of the full year. The Q1 release also highlighted especially strong federal demand, which matters because government customers represented 61.0% of 2025 revenue in the 10-K [#8-K-2026-05-04] [#10-K-2026-03-03].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-04 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology