B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
+2.0% vs current
AMAT
Applied MaterialsDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$430.00
-12.3% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
-26.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-17
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.7
Positive
Company
+17.2
Positive
Macro
+20.7
Positive
Pulse
-62.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+37.8
Score
AI commentary
Near-term news tone is fundamentally positive because the company posted record revenue, EPS and a stronger outlook, but the market reaction was mixed to negative in headline coverage, suggesting good news was at least partly priced in. The peer framing is now anchored to direct wafer-fab-equipment comparators rather than broad semiconductor chip peers, but the available analyst-target packet remains thin and partly stale, so sentiment should be read as constructive but not cleanly bullish. Social-context coverage was not provided, so this remains primarily a filing-and-earnings-digestion view.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-17
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-14eventQ2 beat and stronger Q3 outlook reset near-term expectationsMedium impact
Applied reported record Q2 FY2026 revenue of $7.91 billion, record non-GAAP EPS of $2.86, and guided Q3 revenue to $8.95 billion +/- $500 million with non-GAAP EPS of $3.36 +/- $0.20; management also raised its calendar 2026 semiconductor equipment growth view to more than 30%.[#8-K-2026-05-14]
2026-08-01catalystSegment margin strength can support another estimate step-up if it holdsMedium impact
Semiconductor Systems revenue rose to $5.97 billion with 54.7% gross margin, while Applied Global Services reached $1.67 billion with 34.7% gross margin, giving investors a concrete profitability base to monitor into the next print.[#8-K-2026-05-14]
2026-12-31catalystEPIC ecosystem and AI memory/packaging partnerships extend the multi-year thesisHigh impact
Applied highlighted new EPIC Center engagements and collaborations with TSMC, SK hynix, Micron, universities and Advantest, reinforcing its positioning in leading-edge logic, DRAM, HBM and advanced packaging tied to AI infrastructure build-out.[#8-K-2026-05-14]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology