B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$520.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AMAT
Applied MaterialsBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal Q3 revenue reached $9.12 billion, up 25% year over year, with 50.4% non-GAAP gross margin. Management raised its calendar-2026 Semiconductor Systems expectation and anticipated another strong growth year in 2027.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
A fiscal Q4 miss versus $10.25 billion ± $0.5 billion revenue or $4.02 ± $0.20 non-GAAP EPS outlook would challenge the thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] SEC earnings exhibit
Momentum
48
Value
54
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $435.00 · Bull $520.00 · Bear $310.00Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $651.64
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d -7.2
Value54 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -14.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A fiscal Q4 miss versus $10.25 billion ± $0.5 billion revenue or $4.02 ± $0.20 non-GAAP EPS outlook would challenge the thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] SEC earnings exhibit
- • AI infrastructure capital-spending concerns and semiconductor-equipment cyclicality may sustain multiple compression even if near-term results remain strong.
- • The October selloff shows that investors may discount AI-linked equipment spending before reported fundamentals weaken.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-12
Fiscal Q4 results versus company outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.2
Δ21d
+3.0
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+1.8
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.9
Δ21d
-17.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 48.4 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 64.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$435.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$310.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$299.38B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
793.6M
P/E (TTM)
32.8
P/S (TTM)
7.95
P/FCF (TTM)
52.26
Rev YoY
+24.8%
EPS YoY
+43.0%
Gross Margin
+49.4%
Op Margin
+31.1%
Net Debt
-$1.52B
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data