B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGL
agilon healthFNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that the reverse split clears immediate listing pressure, May 6, 2026 earnings show cleaner medical-cost performance, and management proves the FY2026 breakeven framework is achievable despite lower membership.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Further membership pressure after previously disclosed market exits
Momentum
75
Value
37
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2026-04-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $115.08
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +3.2
Value37 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Further membership pressure after previously disclosed market exits
- • Leadership-transition execution risk while the company searches for a permanent CEO
- • The bear case is that reverse-split optics do not change fundamentals: FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was deeply negative, membership declined, and leadership-transition risk remains visible, so another disappointing medical-margin print could reset the equity lower.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+11.9
Value
37
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 74.8 / Value 36.6 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.63B
Beta
0.06
Shares Out
16.79M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.0
P/S (TTM)
0.05
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.02
Rev YoY
+7.2%
EPS YoY
-116.5%
Gross Margin
-0.2%
Op Margin
-4.3%
Net Debt
-$248.33M
Current Ratio
1.08
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data