AGL

Quarterly earnings results are a good time to check in on a company’s progress, especially compared to its peers in the same sector. Today we are looking at agilon health (NYSE:AGL) and the best and worst performers in the outpatient & specialty care industry. The outpatient and specialty care industry delivers targeted medical services in non-hospital settings that are often cost-effective compared to inpatient alternatives. This means that they are more desired as rising healthcare costs and ways to combat them become more and more top-of-mind. Outpatient and specialty care providers boast revenue streams that are stable due to the recurring nature of treatment for chronic conditions and long-term patient relationships. However, their reliance on government reimbursement programs like Medicare means stroke-of-the-pen risk. Additionally, scaling a network of facilities can be capital-intensive with uneven return profiles amid competition from integrated healthcare systems. Looking ahead, the industry is positioned to grow as demand for outpatient services expands, driven by aging populations, a rising prevalence of chronic diseases, and a shift toward value-based care models. Tailwinds include advancements in medical technology that support more complex procedures in outpatient settings and the increasing focus on preventive care, which can be aided by data and AI. However, headwinds such as reimbursement rate cuts, labor shortages, and the financial strain of digitization may temper growth. The 6 outpatient & specialty care stocks we track reported a strong Q2. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 2.6% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was 3.3% above. While some outpatient & specialty care stocks have fared somewhat better than others, they have collectively declined. On average, share prices are down 1.1% since the latest earnings results. Transforming how doctors care for seniors by shifting financial incentives from volume to outcomes, agilon health (NYSE:AGL) provides a platform that helps primary care physicians transition to value-based care models for Medicare patients through long-term partnerships and global capitation arrangements. agilon health reported revenues of $1.49 billion, up 7.2% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 2.8%. Overall, it was a stunning quarter for the company with EBITDA guidance for next quarter exceeding analysts’ expectations and a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates. agilon health pulled off the highest guidance raise among its peers. The company added 123,000 customers to reach a total of 549,000. Investor expectations, however, were likely higher than Wall Street’s published projections, leaving some wishing for even better results (analysts’ consensus estimates are those published by big banks and advisory firms, not the investors who make buy and sell decisions). The stock is down 10.1% since reporting and currently trades at $96.91. Is now the time to buy agilon health? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free. With over 6,600 licensed mental health professionals treating more than 880,000 patients annually, LifeStance Health (NASDAQ:LFST) provides outpatient mental health services through a network of clinicians offering psychiatric evaluations, psychological testing, and therapy across 33 states. LifeStance Health Group reported revenues of $435.4 million, up 26.1% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 5%. The business had a stunning quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and EBITDA guidance for next quarter exceeding analysts’ expectations. LifeStance Health Group scored the biggest analyst estimate beat, fastest revenue growth, and highest full-year guidance raise in the group. The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 21% since reporting. It currently trades at $12.55. Is now the time to buy LifeStance Health Group? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free. With a nationwide footprint spanning 671 clinics across 42 states, U.S. Physical Therapy (NYSE:USPH) operates a network of outpatient physical therapy clinics and provides industrial injury prevention services to employers across the United States. U.S. Physical Therapy reported revenues of $214.1 million, up 8.5% year on year, exceeding analysts’ expectations by 1.9%. Still, it was a slower quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates. Interestingly, the stock is up 2.6% since the results and currently trades at $78.48. Read our full analysis of U.S. Physical Therapy’s results here. With more than 180 locations across 33 states serving as alternatives to traditional hospital settings, Surgery Partners (NASDAQ:SGRY) operates a national network of outpatient surgical facilities including ambulatory surgery centers and short-stay surgical hospitals. Surgery Partners reported revenues of $848.9 million, up 2.7% year on year. This number beat analysts’ expectations by 2.2%. Overall, it was a strong quarter as it also put up a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates. Surgery Partners had the slowest revenue growth and weakest full-year guidance update among its peers. The stock is down 7.6% since reporting and currently trades at $14.34. Read our full, actionable report on Surgery Partners here, it’s free. With a network of 161 specialized facilities across 37 states and Puerto Rico, Encompass Health (NYSE:EHC) operates inpatient rehabilitation hospitals that help patients recover from strokes, hip fractures, and other debilitating conditions. Encompass Health reported revenues of $1.60 billion, up 9.6% year on year. This print surpassed analysts’ expectations by 1.8%. It was a strong quarter as it also produced an impressive beat of analysts’ full-year EPS guidance estimates and a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates. The stock is up 10% since reporting and currently trades at $121.99. Read our full, actionable report on Encompass Health here, it’s free. Over the past year, investors have been forced to repeatedly answer the same question: what is the market’s biggest risk? The answer has changed several times, and each shift has reshaped market leadership. Late in 2025 and early 2026, artificial intelligence became the market’s primary uncertainty. Investors questioned whether AI would erode software pricing power and weaken competitive moats as AI made it easier to replicate once-differentiated products. By the spring, technology took a back seat to geopolitics. The U.S. conflict with Iran briefly became the market’s dominant narrative, raising concerns about oil prices, inflation, and global growth. But as energy markets remained orderly and fears of a prolonged supply disruption faded, investors quickly turned their focus back to fundamentals. 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Agilon Health’s second quarter was marked by significant beats on both revenue and profitability, but the results did not prevent a notable drop in the company’s share price. Management attributed the quarter’s strong financials to operational improvements, including earlier identification of high-risk conditions and expanded adoption of clinical pathways, especially in chronic heart failure management. CEO Tim O’Rourke emphasized that these changes are structural rather than short-term fixes, noting, “Our transformation efforts are gaining traction, our physician partnerships continue to strengthen, and our operating model is becoming increasingly resilient, scalable, and durable.” The company’s enhanced data pipeline and investments in AI also played a role in driving improved outcomes and reducing unnecessary medical costs. Is now the time to buy AGL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free). Revenue: $1.49 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.45 billion (7.2% year-on-year growth, 2.8% beat) Adjusted EPS: $2.15 vs analyst estimates of $0.27 (significant beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $69.57 million vs analyst estimates of $19.95 million (4.7% margin, significant beat) The company lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $5.82 billion at the midpoint from $5.74 billion, a 1.3% increase EBITDA guidance for the full year is $85 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $22.61 million Operating Margin: 0.8%, up from -8.3% in the same quarter last year Customers: 549,000, up from 426,000 in the previous quarter Market Capitalization: $1.45 billion While we enjoy listening to the management’s commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls is the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention. Jack Slevin (Jefferies) pressed for details on why third quarter EBITDA guidance was flat despite strong first-half results and asked about seasonality in cost trends. CFO Jeff Schwaneke explained that Part D exposure is now minimal and earnings seasonality will be similar to prior years, while emphasizing ongoing payer negotiations for next year. Jailendra Singh (Truist Securities) questioned how much of the improved medical margin should be considered a sustainable base for modeling future years. Schwaneke clarified that prior year development was the main non-recurring factor and guided analysts to use the adjusted margin net of these items. Max Young (Deutsche Bank) sought clarification on the sources of medical cost moderation across different service categories. Schwaneke responded that moderation is most visible in inpatient, surgical, and ER trends, though overall levels remain elevated versus history. Ryan Langston (TD Cowen) asked for updates on the performance of a new risk contract and the extent of data pipeline adoption. Schwaneke stated that the contract is tracking to expectations but requires more time for full assessment, and confirmed over 80% of payers are now integrated into the enhanced data pipeline. Matthew Shea (Needham) inquired about which clinical conditions drove the recent risk score uplift and whether similar gains are repeatable. Schwaneke explained the lift was primarily due to expanded pathway adoption and improved diagnosis, with contributions expected to moderate as programs mature. In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace and breadth of clinical pathway deployments, particularly for dementia and COPD; (2) progress on converting care coordination contracts to full risk in existing markets; and (3) continued improvement in operational standardization and cost trend discipline across physician groups. Additionally, updates on payer negotiations and the impact of technology investments on clinical outcomes will be key signposts for execution. agilon health currently trades at $87.12, down from $107.85 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members). ONE MORE THING: Top 5 Growth Stocks. The biggest stock winners almost always had one thing in common before they ran. Revenue growing like crazy. Meta. CrowdStrike. Broadcom. Our AI flagged all three. They returned 315%, 314%, and 455%, respectively. Find out which 5 stocks it’s flagging this month — FREE. Get Our Top 5 Growth Stocks for Free HERE. Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,460% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,552% between June 2020 and June 2025). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

Image source: The Motley Fool. Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. ET Senior Vice President, Investor Relations - Evan Smith Chief Executive Officer - Timothy O’Rourke Chief Financial Officer - Jeffrey Schwaneke Operator: Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Agilon Health Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Evan Smith, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Evan, please go ahead. Evan Smith: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to the call. With me are our CEO, Tim O'Rourke, and our CFO, Jeff Schwaneke. Following our prepared remarks, we will conduct a Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our remarks and responses to questions may include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those stated or implied by forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in our SEC filings. Please note that we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Additionally, certain financial measures, which we will discuss in this call, are non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP measures are supplemental and not a substitute for GAAP results. However, we believe that providing these non-GAAP measures helps investors gain a better and more complete understanding of our financial results and are consistent with how management views our financial results. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures is available in the earnings press release and Form 8-K filed with the SEC today. And with that, let me turn the call over to Tim. Timothy O’Rourke: Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. For those I have not yet had the opportunity to meet, I'm Tim O'Rourke. I joined Agilon as Chief Executive Officer in early May. Over the past 90 days, I have met with nearly all of our physician partners, shadowed PCPs, and have witnessed firsthand how we can help and continue to improve how they care for their patients. Their passion and caring reinforces our mission at Agilon, the proximity and durability of our physician partnerships, and our absolute responsibility to support these physicians in their work across all of our communities. I have been engaged in good discussions with our payer partners and have engaged with the Agilon team. I am listening, learning, and focusing on key areas to drive additional value for all of our stakeholders. I came to Agilon because I believe it sits at the center of where value-based care is going. By partnering with community-based primary care physicians and providing them with enhanced economics, technology, and clinical tools, we enable PCPs to focus on what they are trained to do, keeping patients healthy. To further our mission, Agilon continues to advance new clinical, quality, and AI initiatives that will build upon our historical success in delivering improved patient outcomes while reducing unnecessary medical costs. We believe our collaboration with and proximity to our PCP partners enables us to embed solutions and insights directly into their daily workflows, supporting improved patient care. In turn, our proximity and understanding of our patient populations place both Agilon and our PCP partners in what we believe is the best position to have meaningful impact on members' lives. Against that backdrop, I am pleased to report that Agilon exceeded our second quarter guidance across our key financial metrics. We are also raising our full year 2026 guidance driven by 3 key components. Our performance in the second quarter, the improved medical cost trend we began to see in the first quarter, and a stronger-than-expected performance of our Burden of Illness program that reflects the quality and completeness of the care our physician partners are delivering. Our performance for the quarter reflects our disciplined operating approach and execution across our PCP network. With advances in our enhanced data pipeline, we continue to gain earlier insights to further improve both operational execution and support our PCP partners to drive improved patient outcomes through earlier identification, diagnosis, and intervention of high-risk conditions and gaps in care. With respect to medical cost trends, we are seeing early signs of moderation in macro cost trends as well, as the impact from systematic work at Agilon, investments and execution in clinical and quality programs. Claims and clinical data power the model, helping us stratify high-risk patients more effectively, trigger real-time intervention sooner, and avoid unnecessary medical costs while improving outcomes and member satisfaction. These are not short-term fixes. We believe these are structural changes to how care is delivered in our markets. But I don't want this call to be just about a strong quarter. I want to talk about what is happening inside Agilon that gives us confidence, not just in 2026, but in the future. We feel the results are evidence that our transformation efforts are gaining traction, our physician partnerships continue to strengthen, and our operating model is becoming increasingly resilient, scalable, and durable. At Agilon, our mission remains unchanged, empowering primary care physicians to transform health care for seniors. Everything we do begins and ends with supporting our physician partners in delivering better outcomes, improving the patient experience, and reducing the total cost of care. As we look across our business today, we believe we are positioned to capitalize on the long-term shift toward value-based care. Over the past year, the Agilon team has been highly focused on strengthening the fundamentals of our platform. Our transformation initiatives have centered on 3 priorities. First, driving greater clinical and operational performance across our markets through more consistent execution and deeper physician engagement. Second, enhancing our data, real-time insights, and risk management capabilities to improve both care delivery and financial predictability. Third, creating a more scalable operating model that allows us to support physician groups with greater efficiency while maintaining the local market expertise that differentiates Agilon. We see measurable progress across each of these areas, contributing to stronger medical cost performance, improved care management effectiveness, and better alignment between operating discipline, clinical outcomes, and financial results. The underpinning of the model remains, providing our PCP partners with greater insights and tools embedded in the workflow at the point of care to reduce unnecessary medical costs while driving better patient outcomes. To drive additional improvement, we will look to further reduce variability across our PCP network, implementing operating programs, and embedding technology to drive improved performance across the Agilon team and our PCP partner network by unlocking deeper insights and standardizing best practices at scale. A key element of this will be continued investment in AI tools to drive greater operational and clinical insights, creating more efficient workflow and improved member care, reducing administrative burden, and surfacing evidence-based interventions so physicians can allocate their time to the highest acuity patient populations. We view AI not as a replacement for physicians, but as a force multiplier for primary care. We are also making significant progress in advancing evidence-based clinical pathways across our network. Through greater alignment around proven care protocols, we are improving consistency of care delivery while preserving physician autonomy. These pathways support better management of chronic disease, more appropriate specialty utilization, and ultimately better health outcomes for the populations we serve. The CHF program is deployed across 90% of our markets. It is our most mature pathway, and as such, it serves as the clearest proof point for what these programs can deliver. As we have stated before, as a result of the program, our inpatient first diagnosis rates within our network have improved from approximately 25% to less than 5%. These are the types of clinical outcomes that are possible when we more closely link payment and care delivery. We are also expanding our pharmacy-integrated approach for heart failure patients as fewer than 10% of heart failure patients nationally are on the appropriate medications. We are working systematically to improve that rate for our population, which we expect to further reduce downstream complications and avoidable admissions. We are also moving decisively with our lung health and our dementia guideline-directed programs with the dementia pathway expected to be rolled out to a number of our markets by the end of the year, and the continued expansion of the COPD program. Our focus for both programs is on earlier identification, expanded screenings, and increased utilization of advanced diagnostics by our physician groups, each of which is designed to drive earlier intervention, improve treatment adherence, and prevent avoidable complications and hospitalizations. Looking ahead, we also remain highly encouraged by the opportunities emerging in the next phase of the value-based care ACO models. This is evidenced by our recently announced ACO REACH program results for the 2024 performance year, which found delivery of $229 million in gross savings and an average quality score of 96% across 8 ACOs. We believe our continued strong performance in ACO REACH establishes a strong foundation as we move into 2027. For 2027, the Medicare Shared Savings Program and the future ACO LEAD model represent important opportunities to further align incentives around quality, affordability, and patient-centered care. We are evaluating the best path forward for both existing and new ACO partners as we enter 2027, with the expectation for both to be positive contributors to our performance in the coming years. This quarter's results confirm that our strategy for delivering on our mission is working. We exceeded in our raising guidance. Our transformation is advancing. Our physician partnerships are deepening. And our investments in AI and technology are beginning to show the kind of clinical impact that justifies our conviction. Our competitive advantage is not a product feature nor a technology platform alone. It is our proximity to the patient mediated through a trusted primary care physician partner who knows that patient, lives in that community, and has aligned economic interests in keeping that patient healthy. That is extraordinarily difficult to replicate. You cannot build it in a quarter. You build it over years through thousands of individual physician relationships and the trust that forms when a doctor sees that Agilon's model is successful in improving patient outcomes. Those relationships create richer clinical insight, earlier intervention opportunities, stronger patient engagement, and ultimately better outcomes. We believe the future of value-based care will increasingly reward organizations that can combine sophisticated technology, actionable data, and local clinical relationships. We believe Agilon sits at the intersection of all three. We have more work to do. We are working to reduce physician and group performance variability. We are establishing and advancing clinical pathways for earlier high-risk patient identification and intervention in order to improve outcomes and quality, as well as overall cost. Markets are still maturing, capabilities are still improving, and there are patients whose outcomes we have not yet fully transformed. I am confident Agilon is on the right path. And that path leads to a genuinely better health care system for the communities and patients we serve. I want to thank our physician partners, our employees, and our health plan partners for their continued commitment and collaboration. Your dedication is the foundation of our success and the reason we continue to make meaningful progress in our mission. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff to discuss our financial results and updated outlook in greater detail. Jeffrey Schwaneke: Thank you, Tim, and good afternoon. As Tim mentioned, we're pleased by our second quarter results, which exceeded the high end of our guidance for medical margin and adjusted EBITDA. The positive results and increase to our full year guidance were driven by better-than-expected performance in the diagnosis, assessment, and treatment of our members in 2025, and favorable medical expense development for both 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. This, combined with our enhanced data visibility and estimation process, provide confidence in the underlying performance of our business. I'll cover 3 things today. First, our strong second quarter financial performance. Second, an update on cost trends in the macro environment. And finally, our increased full year 2026 outlook and third quarter guidance. First, let me highlight our second quarter performance. Medicare Advantage membership at the end of the second quarter was 437,000 members compared to 426,000 members at the end of Q1 2026 and 498,000 members in the second quarter of 2025. As a reminder, the year-over-year decline reflects our disciplined, profitability-focused approach to contracting in 2026 and measured approach to growth. ACO REACH membership for the second quarter was 112,000 members compared to 110,000 in Q1 2026 and 116,000 in the second quarter of 2025. As a reminder, a subset of our Medicare Advantage members remain in care coordination fee arrangements. These contracts are primarily net neutral to Agilon with an incentive opportunity based on quality and cost performance. We continue to view these as a long-term risk-adjusted growth opportunity to potentially recontract these members to full risk when appropriate. Revenue for the second quarter was approximately $1.5 billion compared to $1.4 billion in the second quarter of 2025. The year-over-year increase reflects the membership decline I just mentioned, which was more than offset by more constructive rates for 2026 from the CMS benchmark, favorable payer contracting, and higher revenue associated with improved diagnosis of our members' health conditions. Our performance in the second quarter was driven by higher-than-expected revenue associated with the risk adjustment, which is now estimated at approximately 3% year-over-year net of the V28 impact. This is above our prior estimate of approximately 1.5% increase at the end of the first quarter. We continue to see the benefit of the enhanced data pipeline, which provided additional visibility from intra-quarter midyear risk adjustment data from payers, which is validated with midyear MAO-4 and MMR data. It also reflects the success of our Burden of Illness program, which serves as the foundation for our clinical and quality programs through the treatment of patients' comprehensive health conditions. Moving on to medical expense. The cost trends from the second half of 2025 continue to develop favorably. This is supported by early signs of potential moderation in macro trends as mentioned in public commentary by the large MCOs. We also believe it reflects Agilon's ability to impact unnecessary medical costs as we continue to advance our clinical and quality programs. The full year 2025 cost trend is now estimated at 5.8%, down from the 6.2% we estimated when we reported our first quarter results. First quarter 2026 cost trends have developed favorably as well and are now in the low 6% range. In addition, while we have seen some moderation in cost trends, we recorded a second quarter cost trend in the low 7% range, which reflects our prudent reserving approach given the limited paid claims data we have at the end of any given quarter. Medical margin for the second quarter was $197 million, compared to negative $53 million in the second quarter of 2025. This exceeded the midpoint of our second quarter guidance by approximately $74 million. This was driven by favorable prior year development of $22 million, the year-to-date impact from our revised risk score estimates of $38 million, and favorable first quarter cost trend development of $14 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $70 million compared to negative $83 million in the second quarter of 2025. This exceeded the midpoint of our second quarter guidance by approximately $50 million. This was driven by favorable prior year development of $22 million, the year-to-date impact from the increase in our revised estimate for risk adjustment of $20 million, and favorable development of first quarter cost trends of $7 million. In addition, results include ACO REACH adjusted EBITDA contribution of $7 million, which was roughly in line with our Q2 guidance. On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $257 million in cash and marketable securities and $83 million of off-balance sheet cash held by our ACO entities. We continue to expect year-end 2026 cash of at least $125 million. Now let me turn to our outlook. We are revising our full year 2026 guide to reflect the strength of the second quarter results, including better-than-expected revenue associated with higher estimated risk scores for the year and the second quarter performance. Using the midpoint of our guidance ranges for the full year 2026, we now expect revenue of approximately $5.8 billion, medical margin of approximately $485 million, and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $85 million. The increased full-year 2026 guidance reflects the year-to-date performance, prudent assumption for cost trends in a 7% range for the remainder of the year, and the positive impact for the second half of the year from the increase in our revenue associated with the better-than-expected risk adjustment estimate contribution to 3% net of the V28 impact. It also includes ACO REACH adjusted EBITDA between $25 million and $30 million. Our confidence is rooted in the same key tenets we have outlined throughout the year: operating execution across our clinical and quality programs, improved data visibility and forecasting from the enhanced data pipeline, payer contracting improvements that emphasize profitability for both medical margin and cash flow, and a conservative cost trend assumption. Turning to the third quarter outlook, utilizing the midpoint of our guidance ranges, we expect revenue of approximately $1.46 billion, medical margin of approximately $110 million, and break-even adjusted EBITDA. I will close by saying we are encouraged by the continued progress across the business. The work our physician partners and employees are doing every day is showing up in our results, and we believe the foundation we're building supports durable, predictable performance into 2027 and beyond. With that, operator, let's move to the Q&A portion of the call. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jack Slevin with Jefferies. Jack Slevin: Maybe just to start here, I just want to confirm it because the line cut a little. That PYD, the $22 million, that's the only item that would make the first half not reflective on the EBITDA line of sort of what we've seen in the first half as far as what we have both now in 1Q and 2Q. Is that a fair way to frame it? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, yes, that's a fair way to frame it, Jack. Just recall, we did have some favorable prior year development in the first quarter, but we offset that with additional accruals on Part D for 2025 dates of service. So you're right. On the 6-month, the $22 million is really the only piece that's, I would say, included in EBITDA from prior period. Jack Slevin: Okay. I appreciate that, and then to get to my real questions here. So, a little bit forward, but on the current year, you know, with the flat EBITDA in 3Q, the really strong first half performance, it obviously assumes a dip off in 4Q. I guess just balancing maybe to take a step back on sort of what you're thinking from a cost trend perspective, in those back 2 quarters and how that accounts for, you know, pulling back some of the exposure you had in-year? Just thinking about how a lot of the plans are calling out steeper seasonality, but Part D is the big driver in MA. So that's the question on the in-year, and then for next year we'd love to just get an update on what you've seen now that we sit here in August from early conversations with payers around 2027 bids and then any potential recontracting that might need to get done. Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, yes, so that's a lot there, Jack. But first, I'll get into the Part D. So one thing to remember for us is that we record Part D net in revenue. So it really doesn't impact seasonality like it does the payers. So as you think about our income statement, I would think about the way it was before the changes to Part D. So your highest earning quarters are in the first half. Your lowest would be in the second half, right? That's the way I would frame it. The second piece is really related to contracting. I would say it's early. You know, we don't have the bid detail yet. We ultimately get that bid detail in the third and late in the third quarter. And obviously we have to complete our contracts by the end of the year. Again, discussions with payers have been productive. We're in continuous conversations with them. We believe that they recognize the value that we bring in quality, cost of care, and overall patient satisfaction. And as we think about contracting into next year, we're really focused on the same disciplined approach, including profitability, gaining economic value for the value we deliver in quality and improved outcomes, and obviously continuing to reduce our exposure to Part D. And we're less than 15% of our book has Part D exposure now. We look to continue to further reduce that. And then just as a reminder, you know, we touched 80% of our contracts last year and 50% of them are open. So again, it's early. We expect to hit full stride in the third quarter and get them all wrapped up by the end of the year. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jailendra Singh with Truist Securities. Jailendra Singh: Congrats on a strong quarter. So I want to talk about the 2026 medical margin guidance. Updated guidance clearly includes current year medical cost performance. I think we tabulate $36 million PYD year-to-date and some changes around risk adjustments. So as we think about 2027, not looking for guidance, but want to make sure we have the right 2026 jump-off point. Should we think of medical margin guide net of PYD a good starting point, or are there other items we should be aware of as we think about the building blocks for next year? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, sure, Jailendra. I can walk you through that. So first is on PYD, it's in the medical margin line, it's roughly $22 million. So it's both $22 million on the medical margin and $22 million on EBITDA, given our performance last year. So there's really 100% flow-through on that because a lot of our partners were in negative positions last year. And so if there's improvement, we get 100% of that benefit coming into this year. So that's really the only thing in the 6-month period that I would call out is in the medical margin line. So hopefully that helps you get to what I call the jumping-off point. Jailendra Singh: Okay. And then, Tim, thanks for sharing your first few months of experience and your focus area. Clearly, the company has seen some nice operational improvement over the past 12 months, but curious on how you think about the next phase for the company. Do you see the growth coming from existing markets and payer relationships? Or will your strategy be more get more opportunistic in terms of adding new physician markets? And related to that, what financial and operating thresholds would you want to see before committing meaningful capital to new market growth? Any color on that would will be helpful. Timothy O’Rourke: Jailendra, I really appreciate the question. Thanks for that, and it's great to be here. Look, as we kind of think about growth and the next phase of growth, we continue to remain focused on the execution and strengthening the foundation of our current markets. Those current markets have additional growth opportunities as we sit here today. Jeff talked a little bit earlier about care coordination fee contracts. Converting those into full risk is a growth opportunity that exists in our current markets today. We have the ability to reengage with our partners who we did not come to terms with, and our payer partners in 2026, and revisit those agreements. We have the ability to take a look at our ACO relationships with partners and look at those as new opportunities for the organization with both LEAD and MSSP. And then we also have historical Agilon opportunity in our current markets through the MA program and ACOs. As respect to new markets, as we sit here today, we are going to remain measured and disciplined as we approach that new market opportunity and continue to kind of assess those market conditions moving forward. I want to remind you of 2 things. First of all, the demand for our model is strong. The demand sits there today, we continue to get inbounds from potential new partners. And if you remember correctly, before we put a pause on growth, we were in conversation with several new partners that we can reengage with at this point in time. A reminder, we have a pretty long implementation timeframe on new markets, I think 12 to 18 months. So we're really evaluating that new market growth as we look at 2028. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of George Hill with Deutsche Bank. Unknown Analyst: Yes, it's Max Young for George. You talked about medical cost trend trending favorable in the quarter. Could you provide a little bit more detail on what you're seeing across inpatient, outpatient, pharmacy, and supplemental, and expectations embedded in the guide? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, certainly. I think what we've seen is while the trends are still high, they're a little bit lower in inpatient and surgical and ER. And so we've seen that moderate a little bit. So while they're still high from a historical perspective, I think if you look year-over-year, we're seeing trends come down a little bit in those categories, I think consistent with what other public payers have said. And then I think this circles back to Jack's question that I missed earlier here, but as we think about cost trend for the back half, what we've assumed in this guide is roughly 7% for Qs 2 and 3. And as a reminder, we recorded in the low 7% range also for -- sorry, Q2, 3, and 4, all roughly in the low 7% range. Unknown Analyst: Got it. Just a quick follow-up. I don't know if it's too early to discuss membership outlook for next year right now, but could you talk about the key puts and takes we should consider in modeling 2027 membership growth? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, yes, certainly. It is a little bit early, right? We're in the contracting process now with our payer partners. But I think, as Tim mentioned, we have an opportunity for growth with the care coordination fee members. So there's opportunity to potentially go to full risk there. Additionally, there's potential growth, just organic growth in our existing markets as well, certainly on the ACO side. I think Tim discussed that. So I think it's a little early, but there's certainly opportunity for us to increase membership, not through new partners, as we mentioned, but there's certainly opportunity there. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Langston with TD Cowen. Ryan Langston: Great, thanks. In the first quarter you had talked about a new risk contract that you had taken on. Can you maybe give us an update on how that particular new contract is progressing? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, yes, certainly. I think recall we budgeted that at roughly break-even. I would say, you know, it's early. As you know, as we talked about, we don't have a lot of paid claims visibility for the second quarter. So really all we have is, you know, I'd say paid data for Q1, but it's in line with expectations and ultimately we just need a few more quarters under our belt to get a clear view. Ryan Langston: Got it. And then on the enhanced data pipeline, can you just remind us how much of your membership is actually flowing through that? And if there's substantially more opportunity to enhance the performance of that pipeline? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, absolutely. So data pipelines, above 80% of our payers are included in the data pipeline. I think I mentioned this in the past, but obviously we're starting with the largest payers and working our way down. And so progress towards the end is a lot more number of payers, so it will go slower, but we're certainly looking to continue to put more payers into the enhanced data pipeline. And so we've certainly made progress, and we'll update you as we go throughout the year. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Matt Shea with Needham. Matthew Shea: Congrats on the really nice quarter here. Maybe kind of piggybacking on the last question with the data pipelines, obviously member risk score uplift was a nice improvement in the quarter. Anything to call out in terms of conditions driving this, just thinking as you better identify conditions and properly risk adjust, how that potentially aligns with your current clinical pathway programs? And then just in conjunction with that, how much of this 3% do you view as something that is potentially repeatable versus just a one-time catch-up as the data pipeline matures? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, thanks for the question, Matt. You know, you're right, results were better than expected, really driven by the rollout and execution on our clinical programs in 2025. So the programs were ramping throughout 2025, so the results were back-end loaded. We did have some indication that we were performing well, which is why we increased our risk adjustment estimate in the first quarter. With additional claims run out in the midyear data, we now expect that increase to be roughly 3%. The important piece is that our members are now receiving the care that they need sooner. And as you think about 2027, given the rollout of our programs last year, we would still expect RAF to be a net positive contributor on a net basis next year, but probably not to the level we are experiencing this year. Tim, anything to add on that? Timothy O’Rourke: The only thing I'd add is just a reminder of the clinical pathway work that we do. CHF is a great example. As we identify these diagnoses earlier, we're able to create the right intervention for the patient and help support that physician. Again, a great example of that is heart failure diagnosis in the inpatient setting. As I talked in the opening remarks, for our population dropped from 25% to under 5%. So again, a great opportunity for us to identify with the physician conditions for that patient sooner, drive an earlier intervention, and keep them out of the hospital in the ER. Matthew Shea: Okay, appreciate that. And then maybe continuing on the clinical pathways thread, I think last quarter you had talked about targeting COPD and dementia pathways in 50% to 70% of markets by the end of Q2. Just curious if you hit that, and then are you seeing any early claims-based benefit yet? Might still be too early, so maybe still kind of a back half of the year 2027 event, but curious on your thinking there. And then as we think about the evolution of those clinical pathways, any new programs you're starting to contemplate, areas you're starting to build out, or any kind of initiatives that we should maybe be aware of? Timothy O’Rourke: Yes, appreciate the question. This is Tim. I'll start and then hand it to Jeff. I think you're right, we continue to look at clinical pathways as really a continued opportunity to identify those chronic conditions early, help identify those patients for physicians, create those interventions, and help them with that identification at the point of care in their workflow and help them with early treatment. To your point, our next focus after CHF continues to be dementia and COPD. We're working through our markets in terms of the deployment of those pathways. We'll continue to progress with those as we kind of finish out the rest of the year. And if you take a look at our focus, I would say those are the 3 clinical pathways we're focused on as we run out the rest of 2026. Jeff, anything to add? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, no, I think certainly there's opportunity there that we see, but, you know, I'd stick with my previous comment that, you know, I think we expect it to be a positive next year, but obviously not to the level this year. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Mok with Barclays. Andrew Mok: Hi. What is the follow-up on the guidance raise. I think you beat the 2Q guide by $57 million and raised the full year guide by $60 million. The 2Q beat was related to the higher risk adjustment revenue. Is that isolated to the quarter or is that going to flow through for the balance of the year? And if so, would that contribute to the raise in the guidance? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, so maybe I can take a second and kind of walk you through the bridge for the guide. So you're right, the Q2 performance compared to our previous midpoint, the previous guide midpoint was roughly $50 million ahead. And so you have Q2 performance, and then you're right, the risk adjustment, there is a second half impact. So I would call that roughly $19 million at the EBITDA line for an impact on the rest of the year for the improvement in risk scores. And then that's offset a little bit by incentive compensation and incremental annual wellness visit dollars. So obviously with the performance of the company, there's additional incentive compensation costs. And that kind of brings you down to roughly the new mid of $85 million. So I hope that helps. Andrew Mok: Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up on the trend commentary. The favorability you called out in the quarter, was that what you observed in 2Q, or was that related to the 1Q trend revision that you recorded in the second quarter results, and any color on sort of like trend going from 6% to 7% would be helpful. Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, yes. There's a couple of pieces. First, we saw improvement in 2025. So recall we had 2025 and at the end of the first quarter, roughly 6.2% cost trend. That's now at 5.8%. So we had favorable development from 2025 dates of service. And then Q1, we initially recorded at 7.4% and that's now in the low 6s. And so there's favorability there as well. And again, as I mentioned before, we really have limited paid claim data for Q2, and so we felt it prudent to record a cost trend in the low 7% range. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ha with Baird. Hua Ha: And just another one on medical cost trends. In terms of monthly progression through second quarter, you know, now trends are getting into that 6% area. Was the degree of favorability relatively consistent throughout the quarter? Do you see any moderation as you move into June? And then on trend more broadly, you talked about like the macro backdrop improving. Are there any distinct like macro factors that you think might be pretty notable? For example, across inpatient, are you seeing better unit costs maybe from moderating provider coding intensity, anything to call out there? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, Michael, thanks for the question. As I mentioned before, we really have limited paid claims visibility for Q2, and so not much to say on the specifics there. And additionally, I think as you look at months, right, you have to adjust for day count, etc. It's kind of hard to look at cost trends on a monthly basis is what I would say. So, really nothing more to add from that perspective. And on the cost trends, I think we mentioned earlier, the moderation in really inpatient and ER, still high trends from a historical perspective, but certainly lower than they have been last year. Timothy O’Rourke: Just to add, Jeff, on top of the macro trends. Michael, remember our clinical programs, our data, our interventions, we're actually starting to see the impact of that as well in our markets as we move forward. So again, that early identification, input into the physician workflow at the point of care, the intervention and treatment on an earlier basis. We're starting to see that pull through as well in our business. Hua Ha: Got it. Thank you. And one more question, just more higher level question into '27. When I think about the path into '27, I think last quarter you mentioned final rate notice about 5.3% starting point across your markets trend, and you're still assuming 7% in the back half of the year. I was wondering if you could bridge us from that starting point to potential margin recovery. Should we be thinking about it like, okay, you add on another 1 to 2 points in coding improvement, another 1 to 2 points of plan pricing benefit design, all that is before cohort maturation, like trend initiatives, as that being like potentially sufficient to drive revenue PMPM growth above trend? Or are there other missing components in that framework? Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, Michael, it is a little early for 2027, but I would just think broadly about the value creation levers that you've heard us talk about in the past. I think I've given you kind of a range on the net impact of risk adjustment. And then, you know, I think that's a good place to start, but it's early for us to really get too far ahead on 2027. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Grosslight with Citi. Luismario Higuera: This is Luis on for Daniel. Congrats on the quarter. I'll ask you another one on clinical programs. I know in 2025, you said, I think it's $25 million benefit from the clinical programs, which I think was largely from the quality of care program. And I know you spent a decent amount of this call talking about ramping up other programs. And my question is how much of the medical margin improvement in guidance this year is driven by the continued ramping of clinical programs. I'm just trying to parse out what is really just more macro benefits versus more the idiosyncratic initiatives. Jeffrey Schwaneke: Yes, yes, sorry, you cut out there at the end. But I think I have the question. The $25 million that you're talking about, that was really in 2025 related to our quality program. So the payers incentivize us to perform in quality, and we had $25 million of opportunity for 2025. What we've said in the past is that opportunity has doubled. I think the importance of quality has obviously increased for payers, and so there's more dollars on the table for us to earn. What we have in this guide is a consistent level of performance from '25 to '26. So although we're striving to improve our performance in quality, as far as guidance purposes are concerned, it's an equal level of performance from '25 to '26. So I hope that clarifies the number. Luismario Higuera: Understood. Thank you. Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Tim O'Rourke for closing remarks. Timothy O’Rourke: Well, I want to thank everyone for joining us and for all the questions here today. As you heard us discuss, we continue to stay focused on driving improved performance, executing it across our operations, and really delivering value to our partners, patients, and our shareholders. I want to thank all of our employees and partners for their continued dedication and collaboration to Agilon's mission as we continue to strengthen our model and relationships together. Have a great night, and we'll talk soon. Operator: This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect. Before you buy stock in Agilon Health, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Agilon Health wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $403,337!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,334,946!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 958% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 214% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 12, 2026. This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Agilon Health (AGL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript was originally published by The Motley Fool

Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St's easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge. agilon health (AGL) is back on investors’ radar after second quarter results showed a shift from loss to profit, alongside revenue above market expectations and higher full year revenue guidance for 2026. See our latest analysis for agilon health. The latest quarter has put agilon health back in the spotlight, even as the share price has been volatile. The 1 day share price return is down 19.49% and the 7 day share price return is down 10.25%, following a very large year to date share price return and a 296.94% 1 year total shareholder return that contrasts with a 3 year total shareholder return down 81.83%. If this kind of sharp move has you thinking about where else strong trends might be forming, it could be worth scanning for other healthcare focused AI opportunities through the 42 healthcare AI stocks. agilon health has just swung from loss to profit and issued higher revenue guidance, yet the stock has dropped sharply after a huge 1 year run. Does that create an opportunity to consider a strong business at a reasonable price? agilon health closed at $86.83, while the most followed narrative places fair value at $78.14 using a 7.11% discount rate and detailed long term forecasts. Read the complete narrative. Want to understand why this narrative supports a premium price for agilon health? The story leans on steady revenue expansion, margin repair and a richer earnings multiple. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions drive that $78.14 fair value. Result: Fair Value of $78.14 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, you still need to weigh real pressure points, including leadership uncertainty and payer concentration. These factors could affect agilon health's membership trends and contract economics. Find out about the key risks to this agilon health narrative. The analyst narrative points to agilon health trading 11.1% above a $78.14 fair value, using future earnings and a higher P/E. Yet on simple sales based metrics, the story looks very different. The stock trades on a P/S of 0.2x, compared with 1.4x for the US Healthcare industry and a fair ratio of 0.5x based on Simply Wall St’s model. That gap suggests the market is pricing agilon health’s current revenue at a steep discount, even after a very large 1 year total shareholder return. The question is whether that discount reflects the company’s execution and concentration risks, or whether it is too harsh for investors with a long time horizon. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. After considering both the enthusiasm and the caution surrounding agilon health, it may be helpful to review the underlying numbers on your own and promptly form your own stance based on the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. If agilon health has sharpened your focus on quality and price, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St screener to turn fresh ideas into a focused watchlist. Spot what you believe are mispriced opportunities by comparing quality and value, then filter for companies using the 50 high quality undervalued stocks. Prioritise resilience by screening for companies with stronger finances through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (49 results). Hunt for what you see as overlooked potential by checking the screener containing 19 high quality undiscovered gems before others catch on. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include AGL. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]

Agilon Health (AGL) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.06 per share. This compares to a loss of $6.25 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1,633.33%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this senior-focused health care company would post earnings of $1.13 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.8, delivering a surprise of +59.29%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. Agilon, which belongs to the Zacks Medical Services industry, posted revenues of $1.49 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.33%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.39 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Agilon shares have added about 450.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 13%. While Agilon has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Agilon was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$1.62 on $1.41 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and -$1.80 on $5.72 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year. Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Medical Services is currently in the top 38% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 12. This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.14 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +12.5%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. Sera Prognostics, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $0.13 million, up 550% from the year-ago quarter. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

Interested in Agilon Health, Inc.? Here are five stocks we like better. Agilon Health exceeded Q2 guidance, reporting approximately $1.5 billion in revenue, $197 million in medical margin and $70 million in adjusted EBITDA, versus losses in the prior-year quarter. The company raised its 2026 outlook to roughly $5.8 billion in revenue, $485 million in medical margin and $85 million in adjusted EBITDA, supported by stronger risk-adjustment revenue and favorable medical-cost trends. Management is emphasizing operational consistency and clinical programs—particularly for heart failure, COPD and dementia—while prioritizing growth within existing markets and remaining disciplined on expansion into new markets. Agilon Health (NYSE:AGL) reported second-quarter results that exceeded its guidance for medical margin and adjusted EBITDA, citing stronger risk-adjustment revenue, favorable medical-cost development and progress in its clinical and quality initiatives. The company also raised its full-year 2026 outlook. CEO Tim O’Rourke, who joined the company in early May, said his first 90 days have included meetings with nearly all of agilon’s physician partners, time shadowing primary care physicians and discussions with payer partners. He said the company is focused on improving clinical and operational consistency, expanding data and risk-management capabilities, and building a more scalable operating model. → 3 Drone Stocks That Should Soar After the Summer Slump “We feel the results are evidence that our transformation efforts are gaining traction, our physician partnerships continue to strengthen, and our operating model is becoming increasingly resilient, scalable, and durable,” O’Rourke said. Chief Financial Officer Jeff Schwaneke said second-quarter revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, up from $1.4 billion a year earlier. The increase came despite lower Medicare Advantage membership, as more constructive 2026 rates, favorable payer contracting and higher revenue tied to improved diagnosis of members’ health conditions more than offset the membership decline. Medicare Advantage membership was 437,000 at the end of the second quarter, compared with 426,000 at the end of the first quarter and 498,000 a year earlier. ACO REACH membership was 112,000, compared with 110,000 in the first quarter and 116,000 in the second quarter of 2025. Medical margin was $197 million, compared with negative $53 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $70 million, compared with negative $83 million in the prior-year quarter. → Meta’s Earnings Drop Shows Wall Street Wants More Than Ad Growth Medical margin exceeded the midpoint of the company’s quarterly guidance by approximately $74 million, while adjusted EBITDA exceeded the midpoint by about $50 million. Schwaneke attributed the performance to $22 million of favorable prior-year development, higher estimated risk-adjustment revenue and favorable first-quarter medical-cost trend development. The company said second-quarter results included a $7 million contribution from ACO REACH adjusted EBITDA, roughly in line with its guidance. → Jersey Mike's Serves Fresh Gains After IPO Stumble Agilon ended the quarter with $257 million in cash and marketable securities, along with $83 million of off-balance-sheet cash held by its ACO entities. The company continued to expect at least $125 million in year-end 2026 cash. Schwaneke said agilon now expects risk adjustment to contribute approximately 3% year-over-year, net of the V28 impact, compared with its prior estimate of about 1.5% at the end of the first quarter. The revised estimate reflects additional payer data, validation through midyear MAO-004 and MMR data, and the company’s burden-of-illness program. The company’s enhanced data pipeline now includes more than 80% of its payers, according to Schwaneke. The system is intended to provide earlier data visibility and support forecasting, identification of high-risk patients and clinical interventions. On costs, agilon lowered its estimate for full-year 2025 medical-cost trend to 5.8% from 6.2% previously. First-quarter 2026 cost trends have developed favorably and are now in the low 6% range, Schwaneke said. The company recorded a low-7% cost trend for the second quarter because of limited paid-claims data and its reserving approach. Schwaneke said inpatient, surgical and emergency-room trends remain high by historical standards but have moderated from prior levels. For the remainder of 2026, agilon’s outlook assumes medical-cost trends in the 7% range. Using the midpoint of its updated ranges, agilon now expects full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $5.8 billion, medical margin of approximately $485 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $85 million. The outlook includes the benefit of higher estimated risk-adjustment revenue in the second half of the year, a conservative cost-trend assumption and an expected $25 million to $30 million contribution from ACO REACH adjusted EBITDA. Schwaneke said the guidance increase also accounts for higher incentive-compensation costs and incremental annual wellness visit spending. For the third quarter, the company expects approximately $1.46 billion in revenue, medical margin of approximately $110 million and break-even adjusted EBITDA, based on the midpoint of its guidance ranges. O’Rourke highlighted agilon’s clinical pathways for chronic conditions, including congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and dementia. The CHF program has been deployed across 90% of agilon’s markets. O’Rourke said inpatient first-diagnosis rates for CHF within the company’s network have fallen from approximately 25% to less than 5% as the company focuses on earlier detection and treatment. The company is also expanding a pharmacy-integrated approach for heart-failure patients. O’Rourke said fewer than 10% of heart-failure patients nationally are on appropriate medications, and agilon is working to improve that rate among its population. Agilon expects to roll out its dementia pathway in several markets by year-end and continue expanding its COPD program. Management said the current focus remains on the CHF, dementia and COPD pathways through the rest of 2026. Looking toward growth, O’Rourke said agilon is prioritizing execution in existing markets. Potential opportunities include converting certain care-coordination-fee arrangements to full-risk contracts, reengaging payer and physician partners where agreements were not reached for 2026, and pursuing opportunities through ACO programs. He said the company will remain measured and disciplined on new markets, noting that new-market implementation generally takes 12 to 18 months and is being evaluated with 2028 in mind. Agilon also said its eight ACO REACH organizations delivered $229 million in gross savings and an average quality score of 96% for the 2024 performance year. Management said it is evaluating opportunities in the Medicare Shared Savings Program and the future ACO LEAD model for 2027. Agilon Health (NYSE: AGL) is a healthcare company that partners with independent primary care physicians to deliver value-based care for Medicare beneficiaries. Through risk-sharing arrangements, Agilon assumes financial responsibility for patient populations, enabling physicians to focus on preventive and proactive health management. The company provides the administrative, clinical and operational infrastructure needed to support comprehensive care delivery. Agilon’s platform encompasses data analytics, care management, patient engagement tools and population health programs. This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected]. The article "Agilon Health Q2 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat. View MarketBeat's top stocks for August 2026.

Revenue increase 7% to $1.49 billion Raises Full-Year 2026 Total Revenues, Medical Margin, and Adjusted EBITDA Guidance WESTERVILLE, Ohio, August 05, 2026--(BUSINESS WIRE)--agilon health, inc. (NYSE: AGL), the trusted partner empowering physicians to transform health care in our communities, today announced results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. In addition, the company increased full-year 2026 guidance for total revenues, medical margin, and Adjusted EBITDA. "Our second quarter results exceeded our expectations, demonstrating meaningful progress across agilon's strategic initiatives and reinforcing our confidence in the strength of our Total Care Model," said Tim O’Rourke, Chief Executive Officer of agilon health. "We are raising our full-year 2026 outlook which reflects stronger burden of illness execution, favorable medical cost trends, and continued operating discipline. As I have engaged with our physician partners, payors, and the agilon team, I am even more convinced about the strength and long-term growth potential of the agilon model and its positioning at the center of where value-based care is going." Second Quarter 2026 Results: Total members on the agilon platform decreased to 549,000 as of June 30, 2026, including 437,000 Medicare Advantage members and 112,000 ACO model beneficiaries. Year-over-year changes to membership primarily reflect a disciplined approach to contracting focused on profitability, previously disclosed market exits, and a measured approach to growth. Total revenue of $1.49 billion in the second quarter 2026 increased 7% compared to $1.39 billion in the second quarter 2025. Revenue was favorable due to higher than expected burden of illness performance, payor contracting, and improved pricing partially offset by lower year-over-year membership. Gross profit was $107 million in the second quarter 2026 compared to gross loss of $52 million in the second quarter 2025. Net income was $18 million in the second quarter 2026 compared to net loss of $104 million in the second quarter 2025. Medical margin was $197 million during the second quarter 2026, compared to negative $53 million in the second quarter 2025. Medical margin includes favorable first quarter 2026 and prior year claims development. Adjusted EBITDA was $70 million in the second quarter 2026 compared to negative $83 million in the second quarter 2025. Key Financial and Operating Metrics ($M):(Second Quarter 2026 vs. 2025) Capital Position and Balance Sheet agilon health’s balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 included cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $257 million and total debt of $32 million. At the end of the quarter, agilon health had $83 million of cash associated with the Company’s unconsolidated ACO model entities. Third Quarter and Revised Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance and Assumptions Guidance for Fiscal Year 2026 ($M): Guidance for Third Quarter 2026 ($M): Full-year revised guidance reflects: Second quarter 2026 performance; An expected increase year-over-year in member risk scores of 3% net of v28; and Estimated cost trends in the low 7% range for the remainder of the year. The Company has not reconciled guidance for medical margin to gross profit (loss) or Adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss), the most comparable GAAP measures, and has not provided forward-looking guidance for gross profit (loss) or net income (loss) in each case because of the uncertainty around certain items that may impact gross profit (loss) or net income (loss), including non-cash stock-based compensation, which cannot be predicted without unreasonable effort. Webcast and Conference Call agilon health will host a conference call to discuss second quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, at 4:30 PM Eastern Time. The conference call can be accessed by dialing (833) 439-1904 for U.S. participants and +1 (585) 542-9983 for international participants and referencing participant code 372460207. A simultaneous listen-only, live webcast can be accessed by visiting the "Events & Presentations" section of agilon’s Investor Relations website at https://investors.agilonhealth.com. A replay of the call will be available via webcast for on-demand listening shortly after the completion of the call. About agilon health agilon health is the trusted partner empowering physicians to transform health care in our communities. Through our partnerships and purpose-built platform, agilon is accelerating at scale how physician groups and health systems transition to a value-based Total Care Model for their senior patients. agilon provides the technology, people, capital, process, and access to a peer network of approximately 2,300 primary care physicians (PCPs) that allow its physician partners to maintain their independence and focus on the total health of their most vulnerable patients. Together, agilon and its physician partners are creating the healthcare system we need – one built on the value of care, not the volume of fees. The result: healthier communities and empowered doctors. agilon is the trusted partner in approximately 30 communities and is here to help more of our nation's leading physician groups and health systems have a sustained, thriving future. For more information visit www.agilonhealth.com and connect with us on LinkedIn. Forward-Looking Statements Statements in this release that are not historical factual statements are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements regarding our and our officers’ intent, belief or expectation as identified by the use of words such as "believes," "expects," "may," "will," "shall," "should," "would," "could," "seeks," "aims," "projects," "is optimistic," "intends," "plans," "estimates," "anticipates" or the negative versions of these words or other comparable terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, among other things: statements regarding our expectations related to our strategic plan and its benefits, our growth trajectory, expected revenue, medical costs, net income and gross profit, total and average membership, Adjusted EBITDA, Medical Margin, geography entry costs and other financial projections and assumptions, including our third quarter of fiscal year 2026 and full-year 2026 guidance. Forward-looking statements reflect our current expectations and views about future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect our future financial condition and results of operations. While forward-looking statements reflect our good faith belief and assumptions we believe to be reasonable based upon current information, we can give no assurance that our expectations or forecasts will be attained. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which may be outside our control. These risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ from those reflected in forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: our history of net losses and the expectation that our expenses will increase in the future; failure to identify and develop successful new geographies, physician partners and payors, or execute upon our growth initiatives; success in executing our operating strategies or achieving results consistent with our historical performance; medical expenses incurred on behalf of our members may exceed revenues we receive; our ability to maintain and secure additional contracts with Medicare Advantage payors on favorable terms, if at all; our ability to grow new physician partner relationships sufficient to recover startup costs; availability of additional capital, on acceptable terms or at all, to support our business in the future; significant reduction in our membership; transition to a Total Care Model may be challenging for physician partners; inaccuracy in estimates of our members’ risk adjustment factors, medical services expense, incurred but not reported claims, and earnings pursuant to payor contracts; public health crises, such as pandemics or epidemics, could adversely affect us; the impact of restrictive clauses or exclusivity provisions in some of our contracts with physician partners; our ability to hire and retain qualified personnel; our ability to realize the full value of our intangible assets; security breaches, cybersecurity attacks, loss of data and other disruptions to our information systems; our ability to protect the confidentiality of our know-how and other proprietary and internally developed information; our reliance on our subsidiaries to perform and fund their operations; our use of algorithms, artificial intelligence and machine learning in our business and challenges with properly managing the development and use of these technologies; our reliance on a limited number of key payors; the limited terms of contracts with our payors and our ability to renew them upon expiration; our ability to navigate the changing healthcare payor market; our reliance on our payors, physician partners and other providers to operate our business; our ability to obtain accurate and complete diagnosis data; our reliance on third-party software, data, infrastructure and bandwidth; consolidation and competition in the healthcare industry; the impact of changes to, and dependence on, federal government healthcare programs; uncertain or adverse economic and macroeconomic conditions, including a downturn or decrease in government expenditures; regulation of the healthcare industry and our and our physician partners’ ability to comply with such laws and regulations; federal and state investigations, audits and enforcement actions; repayment obligations arising out of payor audits; negative publicity regarding the managed healthcare industry generally; our use, disclosure and processing of personally identifiable information, protected health information, and de-identified data; failure to obtain or maintain an insurance license, a certificate of authority or an equivalent authorization; changes in tax laws and regulations, or changes in related judgments or assumptions; our indebtedness and our potential to incur more debt; our dependence on our subsidiaries for cash to fund all of our operations and expenses; provisions in our governing documents; our ability to achieve a return on investment depends on appreciation in the price of our common stock; lawsuits not covered by insurance and securities class action litigation; sustainability issues; our stock price may be volatile; non-compliance with the New York Stock Exchange could result in a delisting of our securities; risks related to management transitions, including the transition of our new Chief Executive Officer, and our ability to effectively manage leadership changes; and risks related to other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), including the factors discussed under "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, which can be found at the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Additionally, ongoing implementation of performance initiatives, leadership changes, and dynamic market conditions create additional uncertainty regarding our future operating and financial performance. Except as required by law, we do not undertake, and hereby disclaim, any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. agilon health, inc.Condensed Consolidated Balance SheetsIn thousands, except per share data agilon health, inc.Condensed Consolidated Statements of OperationsIn thousands, except per share data(unaudited) agilon health, inc.Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash FlowsIn thousands(unaudited) agilon health, inc.Key Operating MetricsIn thousands(unaudited) GROSS PROFIT (LOSS) GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS, INCLUDING PLATFORM SUPPORT COSTS Our platform support costs, which include regionally-based support personnel and other operating costs to support our geographies, are expected to decrease over time as a percentage of revenue as our physician partners add members and our revenue grows. Our operating expenses at the enterprise level include resources and technology to support payor contracting, clinical program development, quality, data management, finance, and legal and compliance functions. agilon health, inc.Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresIn thousands(unaudited) MEDICAL MARGIN ADJUSTED EBITDA agilon health, inc.Supplemental Financial InformationIn thousands(unaudited) Certain of our operations are not consolidated for the period presented because we do not have the ability to control certain activities due to another party’s control of the entities’ board of directors. Although revenues of the unconsolidated operations are not recorded as revenues by us, income (loss) from equity method investments is nonetheless a significant portion of our overall earnings. See Note 12 to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements in the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026 for additional discussion on our equity method investments. In addition to providing results that are determined in accordance with GAAP, we present Medical Margin and Adjusted EBITDA, which are non-GAAP financial measures. We define Medical Margin as medical services revenue after medical services expense is deducted. Medical services expense represents costs incurred for medical services provided to our members. As our platform matures over time, we expect Medical Margin to increase in absolute dollars. However, Medical Margin per member per month (PMPM) may vary as the percentage of new members brought onto our platform fluctuates. New membership added to the platform is typically dilutive to Medical Margin PMPM. We believe this metric provides insight into the economics of our capitation arrangements as it includes all medical services expense directly associated with our members’ care. We define Adjusted EBITDA as net income (loss) adjusted to exclude: (i) income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of income taxes, (ii) interest expense, (iii) income tax expense (benefit), (iv) depreciation and amortization, (v) stock-based compensation expense, (vi) severance and related costs, and (vii) certain other items that are not considered by us in the evaluation of ongoing operating performance. We reflect our share of Adjusted EBITDA for equity method investments by applying our actual ownership percentage for the period to the applicable reconciling items on an entity-by-entity basis. Gross profit (loss) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to Medical Margin. Net income (loss) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to Adjusted EBITDA. We believe Medical Margin and Adjusted EBITDA help identify underlying trends in our business and facilitate evaluation of period-to-period operating performance of our operations by eliminating items that are variable in nature and not considered by us in the evaluation of ongoing operating performance, allowing comparison of our recurring core business operating results over multiple periods. We also believe Medical Margin and Adjusted EBITDA provide useful information about our operating results, enhance the overall understanding of our past performance and future prospects, and allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics we use for financial and operational decision-making. We believe Medical Margin and Adjusted EBITDA or similarly titled non-GAAP measures are widely used by investors, securities analysts, ratings agencies, and other parties in evaluating companies in our industry as a measure of financial performance. Other companies may calculate Medical Margin and Adjusted EBITDA or similarly titled non-GAAP measures differently from the way we calculate these metrics. As a result, our presentation of Medical Margin and Adjusted EBITDA may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies, limiting their usefulness as comparative measures. View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260805997585/en/ Contacts Investor Contacts Evan Smith, CFASVP Investor [email protected] Megan [email protected] Media Contacts Stephanie LawCorporate [email protected]

In 2024, agilon REACH ACOs achieved $229 million in gross savings and 96% quality score Since joining the model in 2021, agilon REACH ACOs achieved $510 million in gross savings, including $125 million in savings to Medicare Trust Fund WESTERVILLE, Ohio, July 10, 2026--(BUSINESS WIRE)--agilon health, inc. (NYSE: AGL), the trusted partner empowering physicians to transform health care in our communities, announced that its Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) achieved $229 million in gross savings (13.6% gross savings rate), including $54 million savings in the Medicare Trust Fund, during the 2024 performance year of the ACO Realizing Equity, Access and Community Health (ACO REACH) model. agilon’s eight REACH ACOs operate under full risk, and in 2024 were responsible for the total cost and quality of care for approximately 121,000 Traditional Medicare beneficiaries. "agilon health is redefining what’s possible in senior care. By helping physicians embrace full-risk models, we’re transforming the shift to value into real-world impact — better outcomes, lower costs and greater access," said Dr. Karthik Rao, chief medical officer at agilon health. "As ACO REACH is currently the only full-risk program within Traditional Medicare, we remain deeply supportive of ACO REACH and its vital role in strengthening local primary care and empowering physicians to deliver truly holistic care for the seniors who depend on them." For the 2024 performance year, the average quality score for agilon’s eight REACH ACOs was 96%. In fact, four of these REACH ACOs attained a 100% quality score. In addition, five attained High Performers Pool status, achieving superior quality results across all four quality measures. "Our long-standing partnership with agilon health has truly transformed the way we care for our patients," said Dr. John Notaro from the Buffalo Medical Group, a participating physician in the ACO REACH program. "By embracing full-risk models, we’ve been able to focus more on preventive, personalized care for our seniors. The savings generated through ACO REACH have allowed us to reinvest directly into our practice — expanding care teams, enhancing technology and developing clinical care programs that are making a real difference in the experience and health of the patients and families we serve." In 2024, agilon’s REACH ACOs included 1,500 primary care physicians (PCPs) operating across 13 communities in Hawaii, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. Since joining the ACO REACH model in 2021, agilon’s REACH ACOs have achieved $510 million in gross savings, including $125 million in total savings to the Medicare Trust Fund. Of note, agilon also had five ACOs among the top 20 Standard ACOs in gross savings rate. About the ACO REACH model The ACO Realizing Equity, Access and Community Health (REACH) model encourages health care providers — including primary and specialty care doctors, hospitals and others — to come together to form an Accountable Care Organization, or ACO. ACOs break down silos and deliver high-quality, coordinated care to their patients, improve health outcomes and manage costs. For questions about the ACO REACH model, call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227), TTY 877-486-2048. For questions about agilon’s Senior Health Connect ACOs, call 866-407-1660. About agilon health agilon health is the trusted partner empowering physicians to transform health care in our communities. Through our partnerships and purpose-built platform, agilon is accelerating at scale how physician groups and health systems transition to a value-based Total Care Model for their senior patients. agilon provides the technology, people, capital, process and access to a peer network of approximately 2,300 primary care physicians (PCPs) that allow its physician partners to maintain their independence and focus on the total health of their most vulnerable patients. Together, agilon and its physician partners are creating the healthcare system we need – one built on the value of care, not the volume of fees. The result: healthier communities and empowered doctors. agilon is the trusted partner in approximately 30 communities and is here to help more of our nation's leading physician groups and health systems have a sustained, thriving future. For more information, visit agilonhealth.com and connect with us on LinkedIn. The statements contained in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of CMS. The authors assume responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this document. Forward-Looking Statements Statements in this release that are not historical factual statements are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements regarding our and our officers’ intent, belief or expectation as identified by the use of words such as "goals," "believes," "expects," "may," "will," "shall," "should," "would," "could," "seeks," "aims," "projects," "is optimistic," "intends," "plans," "estimates," "anticipates" or the negative versions of these words or other comparable terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, among other things: statements about transforming health care, redefining what's possible in senior care, accelerating transitions to value-based care models, our role in creating healthcare systems, anticipated shared savings or shared losses, and our expected performance under ACO benchmarks. Forward-looking statements reflect our current expectations and views about future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect our ability to accomplish our goals, future financial condition, and results of operations. While forward-looking statements reflect our good faith belief and assumptions we believe to be reasonable based upon current information, we can give no assurance that our expectations or forecasts will be attained. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which may be outside our control. These risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ from those reflected in forward looking statements include, but are not limited to: our history of net losses and the expectation that our expenses will increase in the future; failure to identify and develop successful new geographies, physician partners and payors, or execute upon our growth initiatives; success in executing our operating strategies or achieving results consistent with our historical performance; medical expenses incurred on behalf of our members may exceed revenues we receive; our ability to maintain and secure additional contracts with Medicare Advantage payors on favorable terms, if at all; our ability to grow new physician partner relationships sufficient to recover startup costs; availability of additional capital, on acceptable terms or at all, to support our business in the future; significant reduction in our membership; transition to a Total Care Model may be challenging for physician partners; public health crises, such as pandemics or epidemics, could adversely affect us; inaccuracy in estimates of our members’ risk adjustment factors, medical services expense, incurred but not reported claims, and earnings pursuant to payor contracts; the impact of restrictive clauses or exclusivity provisions in some of our contracts with physician partners; our ability to hire and retain qualified personnel; our ability to realize the full value of our intangible assets; security breaches, cybersecurity attacks, loss of data and other disruptions to our information systems; our ability to protect the confidentiality of our know-how and other proprietary and internally developed information; reliance on our subsidiaries to perform and fund their operations; reliance on a limited number of key payors; our use of algorithms, artificial intelligence and machine learning; the limited terms of contracts with our payors and our ability to renew them upon expiration; our ability to navigate the changing healthcare payor market; reliance on our payors, physician partners and other providers to operate our business; our ability to obtain accurate and complete diagnosis data; reliance on third-party software, data, infrastructure and bandwidth; consolidation and competition in the healthcare industry; our participation in and dependence on government healthcare programs, including the ACO REACH model; changes to government healthcare programs, including modifications or termination of the ACO REACH model; uncertain or adverse economic and macroeconomic conditions, including a downturn or decrease in government expenditures; regulation of the healthcare industry and our and our physician partners’ ability to comply with such laws and regulations; federal and state investigations, audits and enforcement actions; repayment obligations arising out of payor audits; negative publicity regarding the managed healthcare industry generally; our use, disclosure and processing of personally identifiable information, protected health information, and de-identified data; failure to obtain or maintain an insurance license, a certificate of authority or an equivalent authorization; non-compliance with the New York Stock Exchange; lawsuits not covered by insurance and securities class action litigation; changes in tax laws and regulations, or changes in related judgments or assumptions; our indebtedness and our potential to incur more debt; dependence on our subsidiaries for cash to fund all of our operations and expenses; provisions in our governing documents; the ability of stockholders to achieve a return on their investment depends on appreciation in the price of our common stock; sustainability issues; stock price volatility; our management transition and our ability to effectively manage leadership changes; and risks related to other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), including the factors discussed under "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, which can be found at the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Except as required by law, we do not undertake, and hereby disclaim, any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260710982829/en/ Contacts Investor Contacts Evan Smith, CFASVP Investor [email protected] Megan [email protected] Media Contact Stephanie LawSenior Director, Marketing & [email protected]