B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGL
agilon healthFNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-18
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-
Unavailable
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+30.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
0.0
Score
AI commentary
The setup looks like a cautious monitoring story, not a high-conviction rebound. Primary sources confirm a completed reverse split, a near-dated May 6, 2026 earnings event, and a FY2026 plan that targets roughly breakeven adjusted EBITDA after a weak FY2025 and lower membership. That keeps sentiment neutral-to-cautious: there is a tradable event window, but the burden of proof is still on execution.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-18
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-06eventQ1 2026 results on May 6, 2026High impact
The company said it will report first-quarter 2026 financial results after market close on May 6, 2026, giving the market a near-term check on membership, medical margin, and whether the FY2026 path toward breakeven remains intact [#IR-2026-04-06].
2026-05-31catalystReverse-split and listing-risk overhang may fade, but only partiallyHigh impact
AGL effected a 1-for-25 reverse stock split on March 30, 2026, with split-adjusted trading beginning March 31, 2026; this removes an acute price-compliance issue, but it does not fix the underlying earnings and membership pressures [#8-K-2026-03-30].
2026-12-31catalystFY2026 breakeven execution remains the real thesis testHigh impact
In the FY2025 results release, agilon guided to FY2026 revenue of $5.41-$5.58 billion, medical margin of $300-$350 million, and adjusted EBITDA of negative $15 million to positive $15 million, while FY2025 platform membership had already declined to 625,000 from prior market exits; sustained execution against that framework is the main longer-duration re-rating path [#IR-2026-02-25] [#10-K-2026-02-25].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology