B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AGL
agilon healthFNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that the reverse split clears immediate listing pressure, May 6, 2026 earnings show cleaner medical-cost performance, and management proves the FY2026 breakeven framework is achievable despite lower membership.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
What can break
Further membership pressure after previously disclosed market exits
Momentum
81
Value
36
Sentiment
15
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2026-04-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-04 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $115.83
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +14.9
Value36 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment15 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Further membership pressure after previously disclosed market exits
- • Leadership-transition execution risk while the company searches for a permanent CEO
- • The bear case is that reverse-split optics do not change fundamentals: FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was deeply negative, membership declined, and leadership-transition risk remains visible, so another disappointing medical-margin print could reset the equity lower.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-04 · AMC
Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.9
Δ21d
+17.6
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
15
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 81.2 / Value 36.4 / Sentiment 14.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.52B
Beta
0.06
Shares Out
16.79M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.7
P/S (TTM)
0.05
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-17.80
Rev YoY
+7.2%
EPS YoY
-116.5%
Gross Margin
-0.2%
Op Margin
-4.3%
Net Debt
-$248.33M
Current Ratio
1.08
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data