SAIA

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

Saia

As of 2026-05-03/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-earnings margin versus demand digestion remains the near-term setup • 2026-05-31

Expected move: -14%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the quarter still showed weaker tonnage, lower weight per shipment, higher self-insurance, purchased transportation, fuel and depreciation costs, and a worse operating ratio. That leaves little room for another soft-density quarter, especially with the shares already trading above the packet's median analyst target.

Invalidation

Break below $335 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull case is that Saia delivered higher first-quarter revenue, matched prior-year EPS, showed shipment growth and March improvement, and continued to de-lever while holding 2026 capex well below 2025. If that translates into better network absorption over the next quarter, the stock can defend more of its premium multiple.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-03

Base target

$406

p=50%

Bull target

$485

p=25%

Bear target

$335

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Volume-density recovery is the key swing factor into the next quarter
Lower 2026 capital intensity and improved balance-sheet flexibility can help if operations stabilize
The post-earnings bull case is that Saia delivered higher first-quarter revenue, matched prior-year EPS, showed shipment growth and March improvement, and continued to de-lever while holding 2026 capex well below 2025.

BearKey bullets

Higher group health claims, workers' compensation, purchased transportation, fuel expense, and depreciation were explicit first-quarter cost headwinds.
LTL tonnage per workday fell 2.1%, pounds per shipment fell 3.1%, and revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge fell 1.2%, indicating freight-density pressure.
Operating ratio worsened to 91.7% from 91.1% despite higher revenue, showing margin recovery is still incomplete.

WatchKey bullets

Post-earnings margin versus demand digestion remains the near-term setup

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $406 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +3% / -29%

Vs latest close: Bull +3% · Base -14% · Bear -29%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $485 (p=25%)Base Target: $406 (p=50%)Bear Target: $335 (p=25%)

Commentary

This remains a cautious post-earnings monitoring view rather than a standard-conviction upgrade. Primary sources confirm Q1 revenue growth and EPS stability, plus stronger cash and lower debt, but the same filings also show weaker tonnage, lower revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge, and a worse operating ratio. The packet does not provide confirmed post-print analyst revisions, and the May 1 anchor price of $441.26 still sits above the packet median target near $405.9, so the earnings follow-up does not yet resolve the valuation-versus-margin tension.

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Volume-density recovery is the key swing factor into the next quarter
Lower 2026 capital intensity and improved balance-sheet flexibility can help if operations stabilize

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$485 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$406 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$335 / p=25% prob

Price $472 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +3% · Base -14% · Bear -29%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.12

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-31
Post-earnings margin versus demand digestion remains the near-term setup
Saia's April 30 first-quarter release showed revenue up 2.4% to $806.2 million and diluted EPS flat at $1.86, but operating income fell 4.8%, the operating ratio worsened to 91.7%, tonnage per workday declined 2.1%, and revenue growth was helped by fuel surcharge revenue. The next few weeks should determine whether investors reward the March demand improvement or refocus on weaker freight density and margin pressure [#8-K-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-04-30].
Prob 64.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Volume-density recovery is the key swing factor into the next quarter
2026-07-30
Management's reported March recovery and first-quarter shipment growth of 1.0% did not offset a 2.1% tonnage decline, lower pounds per shipment, and a 1.2% decline in revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge. A cleaner recovery in freight density and mix by the next earnings cycle would be the clearest path to operating-ratio improvement; failure to show that would likely keep sentiment capped [#8-K-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-04-30].
Prob 48% • Move 9% • Priced-in 40%
Lower 2026 capital intensity and improved balance-sheet flexibility can help if operations stabilize
2026-12-31
Saia reiterated expected 2026 net capital expenditures of about $350 million to $400 million versus $544.1 million in 2025, while first-quarter cash rose to $39.2 million and total debt fell to $112.8 million. If freight demand and network utilization stabilize, the lower capex burden could improve free-cash-flow optics and reduce concern about returns on the national-network buildout [#10-K-2026-02-24] [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Prob 44% • Move 10% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Higher group health claims, workers' compensation, purchased transportation, fuel expense, and depreciation were explicit first-quarter cost headwinds.
LTL tonnage per workday fell 2.1%, pounds per shipment fell 3.1%, and revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge fell 1.2%, indicating freight-density pressure.
Operating ratio worsened to 91.7% from 91.1% despite higher revenue, showing margin recovery is still incomplete.
Revenue growth depended partly on higher fuel surcharge revenue, which is less durable than core yield or mix improvement.
The stock sits above the packet median analyst target, increasing downside risk if delayed post-earnings revisions do not improve.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TFII	TFI International is the closest peer in the packet because TForce Freight gives it direct LTL exposure, making it the most relevant read-through on pricing discipline and freight-demand normalization.
FDX	FedEx is useful for broad freight-cycle and yield context through its freight exposure, but its business mix is much larger and more diversified than Saia's standalone LTL model.
KNX	Knight-Swift is a looser comp centered more on truckload and intermodal, so it helps frame freight demand and capacity conditions but is not a clean LTL margin benchmark.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-03

AI Stock Memo: SAIA - Saia - RankAlpha