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SAIA

SaiaA
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Saia delivered higher first-quarter revenue, matched prior-year EPS, showed shipment growth and March improvement, and continued to de-lever while holding 2026 capex well below 2025. If that translates into better network absorption over the next quarter, the stock can defend more of its premium multiple.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.4.
What can break
Higher group health claims, workers' compensation, purchased transportation, fuel expense, and depreciation were explicit first-quarter cost headwinds.
Momentum
21
Value
50
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $406.00 · Bull $485.00 · Bear $335.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $438.86
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +1.2
Value50 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d -2.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher group health claims, workers' compensation, purchased transportation, fuel expense, and depreciation were explicit first-quarter cost headwinds.
  • • LTL tonnage per workday fell 2.1%, pounds per shipment fell 3.1%, and revenue per shipment excluding fuel surcharge fell 1.2%, indicating freight-density pressure.
  • • The bear case is that the quarter still showed weaker tonnage, lower weight per shipment, higher self-insurance, purchased transportation, fuel and depreciation costs, and a worse operating ratio.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Post-earnings margin versus demand digestion remains the near-term setup

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+10.7
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+7.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 21.3 / Value 49.9 / Sentiment 85.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$485.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$406.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$335.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.28B
Beta
2.09
Shares Out
26.67M
P/E (TTM)
33.4
P/S (TTM)
2.91
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
40.46
Rev YoY
+17.1%
EPS YoY
+31.8%
Gross Margin
+10.8%
Op Margin
+10.8%
Net Debt
$285.27M
Current Ratio
1.58
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data