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SAIA

SaiaC
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 17.1% and operating income rose 26.0%; sustained freight density and network utilization could extend operating leverage. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Heavier shipments, rather than broad shipment growth, drove most reported July–August tonnage gains. [#8-K-2026-09-03]
Momentum
38
Value
51
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $350.00 · Bull $410.00 · Bear $280.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $425.85
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d +6.1
Value51 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -0.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Heavier shipments, rather than broad shipment growth, drove most reported July–August tonnage gains. [#8-K-2026-09-03]
  • • Labor, fuel, insurance, network-expansion and freight-demand costs could offset operating leverage. [#8-K-2026-09-03]
  • • July–August shipment growth was modest despite stronger tonnage, and Q2 revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel declined.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Pricing and operating-ratio test

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+10.9
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-3.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 38.0 / Value 50.6 / Sentiment 61.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$410.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$280.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$9.09B
Beta
2.09
Shares Out
26.67M
P/E (TTM)
33.4
P/S (TTM)
2.91
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
35.80
Rev YoY
+17.1%
EPS YoY
+31.8%
Gross Margin
+10.8%
Op Margin
+10.8%
Net Debt
$285.27M
Current Ratio
1.58
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data