AI Stock Memo: TFII - TFI International - RankAlpha

TFII

Rating neutralAI Memo

TFI International

As of 2026-04-17/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Market reaction and analyst revisions following 2025 FY results (published) • 2026-05-17

Expected move: -12%

Biggest risk

A prolonged freight demand slowdown, margin compression from fuel/labor costs, or weaker-than-expected contract renewals could push multiples toward the analyst low and materially depress cash flow.

Invalidation

Break below $95 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

TFI sustains margin expansion through route optimization and contract renewals while freight demand normalizes, driving above‑consensus EPS and multiple expansion toward the high analyst band.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-17

Base target

$135

p=60%

Bull target

$170

p=20%

Bear target

$95

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Medium-term freight demand / pricing recovery and contract renewals
TFI sustains margin expansion through route optimization and contract renewals while freight demand normalizes, driving above‑consensus EPS and multiple expansion toward the high analyst band.
ANCHOR: {"price": 127.81, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true My base target (~$135) sits slightly above the reported analyst median (~$127.75) and within the analyst low/high range (low $74.90, high $197.65) consistent with modest upside from improved execution; reviewed analyst spread and consensus snippets for sanity checks [#SERP-1] [#SERP-3].

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades after earnings surprises
Execution risk on contract renewals and integration of acquisitions
Freight demand weakness or macro slowdown

WatchKey bullets

Market reaction and analyst revisions following 2025 FY results (published)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $135 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -38%

Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -12% · Bear -38%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $170 (p=20%)Base Target: $135 (p=60%)Bear Target: $95 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed-to-cautious after the Feb 17, 2026 FY release with some analysts trimming near-term estimates while others keep longer-term conviction [#PR-2026-02-17]. Retail/consensus targets show a wide spread, indicating divergent views on demand recovery and margin durability [#SERP-3]. Overall investor attention is focused on upcoming quarterly detail and contract-level indicators disclosed in filings and presentations [#IR-undated].

As of 2026-04-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

TFI sustains margin expansion through route optimization and contract renewals while freight demand normalizes, driving above‑consensus EPS and multiple expansion toward the high analyst band.

Bear Case

A prolonged freight demand slowdown, margin compression from fuel/labor costs, or weaker-than-expected contract renewals could push multiples toward the analyst low and materially depress cash flow.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Medium-term freight demand / pricing recovery and contract renewals

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-17Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$127.75

Range (USD)

$74.90 - $197.65

Count

Query: TFI International Inc Common (TFII) analyst consensus price target high low average

TFI International Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Last Close Price. 110.88USD. Average target price. 118.94USD. Spread / Average Target. +7.27%. High Price Target. 143.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +28.97%.
Extracted: $110.88, $118.94, $143.00Open source
TFI International Inc Consensus Estimates (TFII) - Investing.com NG
Search result #4
According to projections from 11 analysts, the average 12-month price target for TFI Intl is 161.56 CAD, with a high estimate of 194.22260021 CAD and a low ...
Open source
TFII | TFI International Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $160.00. Median, $126.29. Low, $105.00. Average, $126.08. Current Price, $110.77. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. TFII will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $160.00, $126.29, $105.00, $126.08, $110.77Open source
TFI International Inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (TFII)
Search result #8
Despite an analyst consensus of 'Moderate Buy' with an average price target of $127.75—well above current levels—shares extended losses in after-hours trading, ...
Extracted: $127.75Open source
TFI International Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #9
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 19 ; Last Close Price. 122.63USD ; Average target price. 119.97USD ; Spread / Average Target. -2.17%.
Extracted: $122.63, $119.97Open source
TFI International: TFII Stock Price Quote & News | Robinhood
Search result #10
The stock's 52-week range extends from a low of $74.90 to a high of $128.22. See More. Analyst ratings. 60%. of 20 ratings. Buy. 60%. Hold. 35%. Sell. 5%. TFII ...
Extracted: $74.90, $128.22Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$170 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$135 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$95 / p=20% prob

Price $153 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -12% · Bear -38%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-17
Market reaction and analyst revisions following 2025 FY results (published)
TFI published its 2025 Q4 and full-year results on 2026-02-17; investors often re-rate peers/estimates in the quarter after results as analysts update models and guidance—expect continued analyst revision flow and volatility tied to FY2025 metrics reported (net income and margins) [#PR-2026-02-17].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-07-16
2026 Q1 earnings / operating update (company release expected)
Next quarterly results or operating update (typical Q1 release window) will provide fresh revenue, margin, and fleet/route commentary; company IR and presentations pages signal periodic releases and subscription for updates [#IR-undated] — estimated publication conservatively in 90 days per packet rules.
Prob 60.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Medium-term freight demand / pricing recovery and contract renewals
2027-04-17
TFI's diversified North American logistics platform should benefit if freight demand and pricing stabilize; monitoring contract wins/renewals, load factors and fuel surcharges disclosed in quarterly reports and presentations [#PR-2026-02-17] (multi-quarter driver).
Prob 50% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Analyst downgrades after earnings surprises
Execution risk on contract renewals and integration of acquisitions
Freight demand weakness or macro slowdown
Fuel and labor cost pressure compressing margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SAIA	Regional less‑than‑truckload peer with similar exposure to freight rates and routing efficiency; useful comparator for yield and network optimization trends.
R	Ryder provides fleet/logistics services and is a comparator for asset utilization and contract logistics performance.
GXO	Third‑party logistics specialist; compares on contract logistics growth and margin leverage from automation and scale.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: TFI International Inc Common (TFII) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-17