RBLX

Rating buyAI Memo

Roblox

As of 2026-02-08/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Major developer/brand partnership/content cadence • 2026-08-31

Expected move: +152%

Biggest risk

Failure to materially lift ARPU or a slowdown in engagement/ad spend leads to multiple compression and valuation revising toward low analyst targets; weak macro/ads or execution missteps amplify downside.

Invalidation

Break below $65 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful execution of product and developer-monetization initiatives drives ARPU expansion and higher multiples; conviction increases if upcoming partnership/content cadence boosts DAU growth and retention.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-02-08

Base target

$119

p=60%

Bull target

$170

p=25%

Bear target

$65

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term earnings & engagement readthroughs
Product-led ARPU / monetization recovery
Successful execution of product and developer-monetization initiatives drives ARPU expansion and higher multiples; conviction increases if upcoming partnership/content cadence boosts DAU growth and retention.

BearKey bullets

Advertising-market weakness
Failure to execute developer monetization
Regulatory or privacy limits on targeted ads

WatchKey bullets

Major developer/brand partnership/content cadence

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $119 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +261% / +38%

Vs latest close: Bull +261% · Base +152% · Bear +38%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $170 (p=25%)Base Target: $119 (p=60%)Bear Target: $65 (p=15%)

Commentary

Consensus price targets are widely dispersed, with the median materially above the anchor, signaling bullish expectations but significant disagreement [#SERP-3]. Short-term sentiment is mixed: some sources highlight product and partnership upside while others emphasize execution and ad-market risks [#SERP-1][#SERP-2]. Overall tone is cautiously positive and conditional on measurable ARPU and engagement improvement.

As of 2026-02-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term earnings & engagement readthroughs
Product-led ARPU / monetization recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$119.00

Range (USD)

$60.57 - $189.00

Count

Query: Roblox Corp Class A Common (RBLX) analyst consensus price target high low average

Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Q4. FY25. 0. 500M. 1B. 2B. 2B. View More. Analyst Insights: RBLX. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 67.00. 112.61 Average. 66.42 Current. 166.94 High. Analyst ...
Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Roblox (RBLX)
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $65.00 to a high of $180.00. The average price target represents an increase of 100.08% from the last closing price of $60.57.
Extracted: $65.00, $180.00, $60.57Open source
Roblox Corp. Analyst Estimates - RBLX - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $179.00. Median, $107.50. Low, $70.00. Average, $112.88. Current Price, $60.57. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. RBLX will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $179.00, $107.50, $70.00, $112.88, $60.57Open source
Roblox (RBLX) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions
Search result #4
The average price target is $118.26 with a high forecast of $171.00 and a low forecast of $70.00. The average price target represents a 87.51% change from the ...
Extracted: $118.26, $171.00, $70.00Open source
Roblox (RBLX) Stock Price, News & Analysis - MarketBeat
Search result #5
Price Target and Rating. Average Price Target for Roblox: $123.76. High Price Target: $171.00. Low Price Target: $65.00. Potential Upside/Downside: +85.9%.
Extracted: $123.76, $171.00, $65.00Open source
Roblox (RBLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #6
According to projections from 34 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Roblox is 113.87, with a high estimate of 166.94 and a low estimate of 67.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$170 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$119 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$65 / p=15% prob

Price $47 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 38%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +261% · Base +152% · Bear +38%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-31
Major developer/brand partnership/content cadence
A notable branded IP or developer-driven content wave could drive DAU and ARPU upside; date assumed for planning purposes and set to the window end in absence of a firm public date (assumption noted).
Prob 30.00% • Move 30.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term earnings & engagement readthroughs
2026-05-09
Upcoming quarterly results may show user-engagement and monetization trends that materially move the stock; consensus and commentary show wide analyst interest in Q4/FY25 metrics [#SERP-3], [#SERP-1].
Prob 40% • Move 25% • Priced-in 15%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Product-led ARPU / monetization recovery
2027-02-08
Improvements from product initiatives (developer monetization tools, ad/engagement stacks) could materially raise long-run revenue per DAU and justify higher multiples; consensus targets imply material upside if execution holds [#SERP-2].
Prob 30% • Move 60% • Priced-in 5%

Risks

Advertising-market weakness
Failure to execute developer monetization
Regulatory or privacy limits on targeted ads
Slower-than-expected ARPU recovery
User engagement / DAU decline

Peers

Symbol	Summary
U	Unity — creator-platform exposure and ad/monetization tooling; comparable sensitivity to developer economics.
META	Meta Platforms — large-scale user-engagement and ad-monetization trends that can signal broader ad demand cycles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Roblox Corp Class A Common (RBLX) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-08

AI Stock Memo: RBLX - Roblox - RankAlpha