AI Stock Memo: RDDT - Reddit - RankAlpha

RDDT

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

As of 2026-04-11/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 earnings release and call (company guidance / monetization cadence) • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +40%

Biggest risk

Bear case: persistent ad softness or failure to convert scale into higher ARPU, plus multiple compression if revenue growth disappoints; downside to low-double-digits below $120 is plausible.

Invalidation

Break below $120 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: continued ad-recovery and ARPU expansion against a large DAU/WAU base, plus incremental buybacks/asset-light margin expansion, pushing the stock toward high analyst targets near $320 within 12–24 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-11

Base target

$250

p=55%

Bull target

$320

p=25%

Bear target

$120

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Capital-allocation signal from FY2025 results filing (8-K / 10-K monitoring)
Monetization / engagement inflection supported by large active-user base
Bull case: continued ad-recovery and ARPU expansion against a large DAU/WAU base, plus incremental buybacks/asset-light margin expansion, pushing the stock toward high analyst targets near $320 within 12–24 months.

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on new ad products or moderation-driven content disruptions
Macro-driven ad market contraction
Overreliance on buybacks for near-term EPS support

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings release and call (company guidance / monetization cadence)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $250 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +80% / -33%

Vs latest close: Bull +80% · Base +40% · Bear -33%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $320 (p=25%)Base Target: $250 (p=55%)Bear Target: $120 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive after the Feb results and company disclosures; investor focus is on Q1 cadence and capital allocation [#8-K-2026-02-05][#IR-undated]. Recent coverage shows a wide analyst target range (low-to-high), indicating mixed conviction and event-driven upside [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-04-11 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case: persistent ad softness or failure to convert scale into higher ARPU, plus multiple compression if revenue growth disappoints; downside to low-double-digits below $120 is plausible.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Capital-allocation signal from FY2025 results filing (8-K / 10-K monitoring)
Monetization / engagement inflection supported by large active-user base

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-11Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$234.76

Range (USD)

$62.49 - $320.00

Count

Query: Reddit Inc Class A Common (RDDT) analyst consensus price target high low average

RDDT | Reddit Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings - WSJ
Search result #5
Stock Price Target RDDT. High, $303.00. Median, $250.00. Low, $125.00. Average, $234.76. Current Price, $138.38. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $303.00, $250.00, $125.00, $234.76, $138.38Open source
Reddit, Inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (RDDT)
Search result #3
Analysts maintain a 'Moderate Buy' consensus with an average price target of $238.78, implying 72% upside, even as Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from ...
Extracted: $238.78Open source
Reddit Inc. Analyst Estimates - RDDT - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $303.00. Median, $250.00. Low, $125.00. Average, $234.76. Current Price, $138.38. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. RDDT will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $303.00, $250.00, $125.00, $234.76, $138.38Open source
Reddit, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #7
Consensus Reddit, Inc. Equities. RDDT. US75734B1008. Internet Services. Market ... +57.92%. High Price Target. 300.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +106.90%. Low ...
Extracted: $300.00Open source
RDDT Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #8
1-year stock price forecast ; High $303.00 118.76% ; Median $250.00 80.49% ; Low $125.00 9.75% ...
Extracted: $303.00, $250.00, $125.00Open source
Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #1
See Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$320 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$250 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$120 / p=20% prob

Price $178 as of 2026-06-09

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 33%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +80% · Base +40% · Bear -33%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Q1 2026 earnings release and call (company guidance / monetization cadence)
Reddit will report first-quarter results on 2026-04-30; the print and call will provide the next datapoint on ad demand, ARPU cadence, and any updated FY guidance or buyback cadence that could re-rate the stock [#SERP-1][#IR-undated].
Prob 80.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Capital-allocation signal from FY2025 results filing (8-K / 10-K monitoring)
2026-06-30
The 8-K filed Feb 5, 2026 disclosed results of operations; investors will watch any follow-on EDGAR disclosure or board action for buyback/return-of-capital expansion (a program was publicized alongside results) as a catalyst for near-term upside or downside [#8-K-2026-02-05][#10-K-2026-02-06].
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Monetization / engagement inflection supported by large active-user base
2027-04-11
Reddit's investor relations disclosure shows strong scale (121M+ daily and 471M+ weekly active uniques as of Dec 31, 2025); if management delivers sequential ARPU/advertising revenue acceleration vs. FY2025 baseline disclosed in the 2025 Form 10-K, the company can sustain an operating-lever re-rating [#IR-undated][#10-K-2026-02-06].
Prob 50% • Move 60% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Execution risk on new ad products or moderation-driven content disruptions
Macro-driven ad market contraction
Overreliance on buybacks for near-term EPS support
Slower-than-expected ad demand / ARPU stagnation

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RBLX	Direct social/UGC platform peer with comparable scale-led monetization runway and ad-product evolution overlap.
EA	Large consumer-engagement operator; provides a comparator for content-monetization and in-app spend dynamics.
TTWO	Comparable marketplace for user attention and premium content monetization; useful for engagement-to-revenue trajectory checks.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Reddit Inc Class A Common (RDDT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-11