TTWO

TentativeAI Memo

Take-Two Interactive Software

As of 2026-09-01/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2027 Q1 results supported full-year bookings outlook • 2026-08-07

Base target: $294 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Near-term operating momentum is mixed: fiscal Q1 net bookings declined 3% year over year, recurrent consumer spending within bookings declined 1%, GAAP loss widened, and the company recorded a $43.4 million pipeline impairment. GTA VI execution, launch timing, and reception remain material downside variables; recent CEO selling adds sentiment pressure.

Invalidation

Break below $180 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Strong portfolio monetization, recurring consumer spending, reiterated $8.0-$8.2 billion fiscal 2027 net bookings guidance, and the planned GTA VI launch provide a credible path to higher scale and cash flow. The $294.1004 median analyst target implies roughly 34% upside from the $219.70 anchor price, though the target count is unavailable.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-09-01

Base target

$294

p=50%

Bull target

$330

p=30%

Bear target

$180

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

CEO open-market stock sales
Portfolio scale and recurring consumer spending
Strong portfolio monetization, recurring consumer spending, reiterated $8.0-$8.2 billion fiscal 2027 net bookings guidance, and the planned GTA VI launch provide a credible path to higher scale and cash flow.

BearKey bullets

Fiscal Q1 net bookings and recurrent consumer spending trends were weak on a year-over-year basis despite guidance reiteration.
GAAP losses and a $43.4 million impairment on an unannounced third-party title highlight pipeline and development risk.
GTA VI launch delay, weak reception, or execution issues could undermine the principal fiscal 2027 growth assumption.

WatchKey bullets

FY2027 Q1 results supported full-year bookings outlook

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $294 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +12% / -39%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $330 (p=30%)Base Target: $294 (p=50%)Bear Target: $180 (p=20%)

Commentary

Primary-company evidence is strong, but the earnings signal is mixed rather than uniformly bullish. Recent secondary headlines describe underperformance and fading GTA-related momentum; no reliable analyst-revision dataset, post-print price attribution, or sufficient social sentiment aggregate is available in the packet. Direct operating peers are supported by the company’s 10-K, but their differing business mixes limit valuation precision. Confidence is therefore positive but not high-conviction.

As of 2026-09-01 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

CEO open-market stock sales
Portfolio scale and recurring consumer spending

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$330 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$294 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$180 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-07
FY2027 Q1 results supported full-year bookings outlook
Take-Two reported fiscal Q1 2027 net bookings of $1.39 billion, slightly above guidance, and reiterated fiscal-year net bookings guidance of $8.0-$8.2 billion. Revenue and recurrent consumer spending grew, but net bookings declined year over year and GAAP loss widened, including a $43.4 million impairment charge. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
Prob 85.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 80.00%
EVENT2026-11-19
Grand Theft Auto VI launch
Management linked fiscal 2027 growth expectations to the planned November 19, 2026 launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, creating a major company-specific revenue and sentiment catalyst. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
Prob 75.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

CEO open-market stock sales
2026-09-30
CEO Strauss Zelnick reported multiple open-market sales totaling 37,600 shares on August 10, 2026 at prices between $250.49 and $254.45. This is a sentiment overhang, not direct evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-11]
Prob 35% • Move -3% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Portfolio scale and recurring consumer spending
2027-03-31
The company continues to generate substantial recurring consumer spending across NBA 2K, Grand Theft Auto, mobile titles, and other franchises; recurring spending represented approximately 84% of fiscal Q1 GAAP revenue. Durable engagement and successful execution could support the company’s stated expectation for higher scale and cash flow.
Prob 65% • Move 10% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Fiscal Q1 net bookings and recurrent consumer spending trends were weak on a year-over-year basis despite guidance reiteration.
GAAP losses and a $43.4 million impairment on an unannounced third-party title highlight pipeline and development risk.
GTA VI launch delay, weak reception, or execution issues could undermine the principal fiscal 2027 growth assumption.
Recent CEO open-market sales may reinforce near-term investor caution.
The company’s outlook depends on successful content execution and conversion of scale into cash flow.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RBLX	Roblox is a direct interactive-entertainment and online-gaming comparator named by Take-Two as a competitor, though its platform model differs materially from Take-Two’s publisher model. [#10-K-2026-05-22]
PLTK	Playtika is a direct mobile and free-to-play gaming comparator named by Take-Two as a competitor; mobile mix makes it more relevant for Zynga exposure than for the full company. [#10-K-2026-05-22]

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-01

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Symbol

Summary

RBLX

Roblox is a direct interactive-entertainment and online-gaming comparator named by Take-Two as a competitor, though its platform model differs materially from Take-Two’s publisher model. [#10-K-2026-05-22]

PLTK

Playtika is a direct mobile and free-to-play gaming comparator named by Take-Two as a competitor; mobile mix makes it more relevant for Zynga exposure than for the full company. [#10-K-2026-05-22]